Gallup, 7/24: Obama 45%, McCain 43%

[highplainsdem]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109060/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking of national registered voters' presidential election preferences finds Barack Obama with a slight advantage over John McCain, 45% to 43%.

Obama's much anticipated overseas trip enters its sixth day, but so far it has not meaningfully affected the choice for president voters would make if the election were held today. Obama has held a modest advantage over McCain for all but a few days (in which the candidates were precisely tied) since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Today, Obama will give what is considered to be the major speech of his trip in Berlin, Germany. McCain was planning to give a major speech of his own today from an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, but that had to be canceled due to the after-effects of Hurricane Dolly. -- Jeff Jones

[polichick]

1. I'd like to know just who exactly is being polled...

It's hard to believe the race could be that close ~ in fact, I don't believe it.

[Imagevision]

2. Gallup fails to mention they only poll republicans

[polichick]

5. I have a friend who has worked closely with Gallup for years...

He's a political writer and a Democrat who swears by Gallup's methodology ~ but I just can't see how they've got it right this time. Makes no sense.

[book_worm]

3. I'm not sure that while it provided good visuals the overseas trip will have a big impact

People are concerned by their own problems at home and I think they don't necessarily care if a presidential candidate goes overseas. How that helps McCain who has no solutions to every day problems I don't know.

[Bobbie Jo]

4. No flippin way...I call Bullshit!

The appearance of a close race is in WHOSE best interest, I ask? :shrug:

[Imagevision]

6. Looks like they're getting ready to use the Diebolds again? it's absurd so close!

[PurityOfEssence]

7. One major difference between the extremists of the Obama supporters and garden-variety Republicans:

Republicans know that liberals and others left-of-monarchy exist and they bend themselves to the yoke to work against the tide of modernity to out-campaign us and steal elections when necessary.

The extremists among the Obama supporters live in a world of "ignore" and dismissal of "concern", completely disavowing what should be an undeniable reality far and wide. They are firmly convinced that these people don't really exist in any real numbers, and their well-purged echo chamber reinforces them to no end.

This is a close election, even though it shouldn't be, and although some of that is stemming from racism, much of it isn't. Much of it is rooted in the character of the man himself: many love him to the degree of virtual worship, many fear him, many despise him, and many are dismayed by what he is and the disconnect between that and the many different and contradictory things he represents himself as to people of different groups.

There is a disturbing refrain that much of this lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama (which, of course, actually doesn't exist) is due to people simply not having been acquainted with him yet. This is the cult of personality and hero worship, and it belies the reality for many people: many have been acquainted and are not enchanted. In truth, those who can be brought along with wistful posts of his physical beauty or rapturous praise of his radically over-inflated oratorical skills already have been. Now it's down to policy and character issues, and those will probably be the deciding factors.

His persona is based on two things: integrity and newness. He's in big trouble on both counts: having been on many sides of the few major issues he hasn't managed to studiously duck, he's being called into account in a big way on consistency and honesty, and as he plays the same VERY tired old gladhanding tactics of machine politics, the promise of a new day rings hollower.

He needs to stop tacking to the right and stand his centrist ground, such as it is.

This is hardly a walk-away, and these polls aren't "proof" of tampering. I'm not the only fairly left person to have the same problems, and I am EXTREMELY disposed to be biased toward this kind of person. Yet, for all that, I'm not agog. That's a problem.

I'll vote for him, but I don't think things look particularly good right now, and I don't think he's running a sensible campaign. I won't bore you with my fixated disgust with religion, but feel free to use that as a justification to dismiss my warnings if you see fit.

We are fulfilling the old maxim of there being two parties: the Evil Party and the Stupid Party.