Could the new poll be backlash for Obama's Foreign Trip?

[JCMach1]

While I think it looked pretty good, did his success cause a backlash among voters?

i.e.

-they seem him not focusing on domestic issues...
-they see him acting 'too' presidential (it's the hubris thing- perhaps too over the top)

I'm just asking the question and offering some possibilities...

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Only one poll suggests a tight race.

Rasmussen, Gallup Tracking, MSNBC and Reasearch 2000 all show him up by a solid margin.

[JI7]

2. it's only 1 poll, all the others have him expanding his lead

the whore media is looking for any little thing to try to push McCain on us.

it might even be an attempt to get Obama to stop what he is doing because they know he is effective and gaining support.

[JCMach1]

3. I agree, but we need to watch for a trend here...

if other polls confirm a tightening...

If the polls do, I clearly think it is backlash for the over the top foreign trip...

[Teaser]

14. uh, there IS a trend here

and it's a trend toward a larger lead.

[JCMach1]

17. not yet... watch the other polls...

it could be that people are so pissed on domestic issues any distraction from that is going to swing opinions.


Meanwhile, while you were out (on edit)... Rasmussen chimes in http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6554593

[Teaser]

19. nothing there contradicts anything I've said.

as seen over multiple polls, there is a trend. one poll or another may show anomalous results, but the results in the body of polls show an expanding lead over the last few days.

Will it last? Of course not. It's just a bump. But it's real and it's there.

[nc4bo]

8. the rethugs are geniunely trying to make that 1 *likely* voter poll...

into a mountain instead of the molehill that it is.

I've noticed that MSM and the rethugs have consistently forgotten to add the words "of likely voters" in any subject they use this particular poll in. Neither do they explain the demographic which makes up those *likely voters".

The Ministry of Propoganda hard at work.

[Historic NY]

12. Like the AOL polling on presidential choice....its being quoted also,.

[curious one]

4. Do not trust the polls. Things has changed in a way that causes polls not to reflect

the correct image on the ground. So, MSM creates its own.

[fasttense]

5. The first tool of a good CIA propagandist is fake or misleading polls.

Ever since the exit polls mysteriously changed to reflect what the bushes wanted to see in the 2004 presidential election, the polls have been faked. Don't trust them. The CIA routinely uses them to mislead voters in third world countries. Propaganda is all just a game to the bushes.

[ShortnFiery]

6. Absolutely!

I can't even watch the talking heads on the TV networks until the Convention. Talk about "making sh*t up" JUST to stir up us lowly peasant classes. :crazy: :shrug:

[demo dutch]

23. Maybe but they'll be used to justify a McCain win, a possible steal

of the election, and nothing will be done about it, just like 2000 & 2004. Because the American people are too dumb to realize it.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

7. LOFL.

I got a bridge for ya.

[Cha]

25. I know..you'd could probably

sell it too:*

[A-Schwarzenegger]

28. The river running under it is also for sale.

All fully furnished. Credit cards accepted.

[SoCalDem]

9. Shame on the media for not reminding us all about the headstart McCain had

Had Obama not had to keep campaigning until JUNE, he would have had 3 extra months to travel like Mccain did.

Where was the "outrage" about Mccain traveling abroad?

There was NONE..There was an unabashed gleeful nature to their reports.. Mccain had the "edge"..the headstart, and the media cluck-clucked away daily about how on earth Obama would ever "catch up"..

The media's own interference is what created the LONG campaign gauntlet he had to run. THEY were the ones handing out 2nd & 3rd & 4th & 11-teenth "chances & reincarnations" of the Clinton campaign.. Instead of just reporting on the MATH and the impossibility of it all, they kept the "horserace" aspect going so long, that it actually was as responsible for the debt that Ms Clinton has now, as her campaign is. The MEDIA kept hope alive so long, that it's not surprising that they kept going long after it was really over..

Mccain v Clinton or Giuliani v Clinton was what the media had "planned for", and they are now giving mccain the "treatment" to keep his lame campaign going..

Commercials are the name of the game, so the closeness factor MUST be there for them to achieve maximum dollars..

[AllentownJake]

10. Manufactured lead

What the fuck is a likely voter according to Gallup?

[TexasObserver]

11. No. It's a bullshit poll, whose purpose was to knock 49-40 Obama out of the news.

Many of these polls are created to get the result they get.

[demo dutch]

24. BS or not it worked in 2004

[madwivoter]

13. Even if there were any real reliable polls out there...

I wouldn't trust them, and it's way too early for them to mean anything anyway. I find it strange that none of the people I know have been polled (myself included). I have family and friends that live all over the state of Wisconsin.

Bullshit on the '..him not focusing on domestic issues' and '..him acting 'too' presidential' meme. That's all made up by the m$m to stir the pot and create their own headlines.

[burythehatchet]

15. Absolutely. And Al gore invented the internet. And Kerry is a flip-flopper

and (insert wingnut talking point here)

[mod mom]

16. Understanding Gallup's #s: Who Are Likely Voters and When Do They Matter?

uly 28, 2008

Who Are Likely Voters and When Do They Matter?
Frank Newport

USAEditors BlogElection 2008

The July 25-27 USA Today/Gallup poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 47% to 44% margin among all registered voters but McCain leading Obama among likely voters by a 49% to 44% margin. This difference between registered and likely voters indicates that now McCain voters are disproportionately represented among the estimate of those most likely to vote if the election were held today. This difference (in which Republicans gain among likely voters compared to registered voters) appears for the first time in USA Today/Gallup polls this year. In earlier 2008 polls, more Democrats than Republicans were engaged in the campaign and considered likely voters. This is generally a rare occurrence given that Republicans have historically been more likely to qualify as likely voters under Gallup's model (a fact that has been borne out in the real world as Republicans are able to win elections despite facing deficits in party identification or pre-election standing among all national adults).

The similarity between the likely voter and registered voter numbers in previous polls this year may be because there has been atypical interest in the election and enthusiasm among Democrats -- likely due to the exciting nomination campaign between Obama and Hillary Clinton.

The current shift in likely voters could be a result of a short-term energizing of the GOP base as a reaction to the Obama foreign trip or some other cause. (Data from the current poll do suggest that Republicans are overwhelmingly likely to feel that the news media are too positive about Obama and too negative about McCain.) The degree to which this current shift toward the GOP candidate among likely voters remains in place remains to be seen. In general, most poll consumers agree that the likely voter model is most predictive in the final poll before an election; analysis based on likely voter models this early in the campaign should be considered to be a snapshot in time and suggestive of possible turnout scenarios and their implications.

Understanding Gallup's Likely Voter and Registered Voter Models

Who are likely voters, and how do they differ from all registered voters?

Several groups of voters can be isolated in pre-election surveys: First is the group of all national adults, which is the basic sample designed to represent all adults 18 years of age and older. Second is the group of voters who say they are registered and able to vote in their local area, which is the group most commonly used for ballot and other questions directly related to the election. And third is the group of voters considered most likely to vote -- "likely voters," which is the group designed to be most predictive of those voters who actually turn out and vote on Election Day.

-snip

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx

[demo dutch]

18. Yep, since he's being pictured as too presumptive. Americans are small minded overall and

just don't get it. You should read this book
http://www.observer.com/2008/arts-culture/its-electorate-stupid

[JCMach1]

21. exactly...

[margotb822]

20. Don't go by national polls

As we all well remember, states win elections, not the popular vote.

But seriously, how can one organization release such different polls? It shows a serious lack of scientific process on their part.

[cliffordu]

22. Polls are masturbation. Without the happy ending.

[AtomicKitten]

26. You mean the carefully massaged "internals" that don't count new voters?

[suston96]

27. The national polling reflects a probable popular vote margin, but......

....as we saw in the primaries, the popular vote is meaningless when the actual results will be total electoral, state by state votes.

Go to polling sites where such state by state statistics are kept, keeping in mind, that those numbers are based on most recent polling, some of which could be months old.

Having said all that, keep this one bookmarked: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It has congressional races also.