About that USA Today/Gallup Poll: More Proof of Number Tampering

[writes3000]

This post from Daily Kos is definitely worth a read. Unbelievable.

www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/30/111024/383/27/559333

"As for how "likely voters" were identified, USA Today reports that respondents were asked "how much thought they had given the election, how often they voted in the past and whether they plan to vote this fall." Fair enough. But the very next sentence raises even more questions about whether USA Today's effort is actually a snapshot of the electorate, as its website claims, or enters the realm of forward-looking hypothesizing. Buried in the ninth paragraph of USA Today's own write-up, they reveal that "McCain's gains came because there was an even number of likely voters from each party. Last month, the Democrats had an 11-point edge."

Abramowitz says this contradiction is the equivalent of polling malpractice. "It is simply not plausible that there would be an 11-point swing in party ID among likely voters or that there is now an even split in the likely electorate between Republicans and Democrats," he wrote in an email to the Huffington Post."

And then there's THIS! Notice the Gallup guy's choice of words:

"But grains of salt aside, there is other evidence to suggest that USA Today's "likely voter" poll runs afoul of its own standards in terms of not forecasting far-off election results. In describing the poll's usefulness on MSNBC Tuesday morning, Gallup chief Frank Newport said "it's important to look at likely voters ... just to see under a scenario where McCain supporters are energized."

"Just to see a scenario where McCain supporters are energized"; so now Gallup is passing off speculation and hypothesis as accurate polling?"

Gallup's reputation is officially down the toilet.

[Diane R]

1. I'm sure Obama's team is doing their own polling. I wonder how their numbers are different?

Obama will have more reliable numbers. I would love to know what they are; polls taken without bias or agenda.

[monmouth]

3. I'll bet they're pretty good, enough of a lead that they're going

to save their money on ads to "fight back the smears" at this point. Oops he's done it again" is okay for now, but maybe Obama knows his numbers are good enough to let that ride for a while. Dunno.

[writes3000]

5. I think you're right. It also indicates why McCain's fighting like crazy now.

They know they are way behind.

[TexasObserver]

2. Gallup is the biggest whore in the polling business.

They have long been "partners" with big businesses, and market themselves as such. They get in bed with their clients, and that's why they can produce a poll for USA Today that satisfies the wingers that run USA Today.

[Puzzler]

4. One point ...

... I noticed that many of the people answering the article did not raise the main point I'm worried about:

THE ELECTION CAN BE STOLEN MORE EASILY IF THE POLLS SHOW A TIGHT RACE!

(sorry about the shouting)

[ellenfl]

6. and let's not forget how the exit polling was compromised.

i believe this is all leading up to more election theft. that's why we have to stay vigilant and make sure every obama voter gets to the polls and gets to vote.

ellen fl

[MGKrebs]

9. If you are going to say that, you should also say this:

Volunteer to help here:

http://nationalcampaignforfairelections.org/pages/election_protection

[Coexist]

7. knr

[high density]

8. So Gallup admits that "Likely Voters" means "Voters We Like"

Why not publish a scenario where Obama supporters are 100% energized and McCain supporters are 0% energized? That is just as "likely" as the BS that has been flooding out so far about this poll.