WSJ: Kerry leads Bush in Electoral College Tally

[Tarheelhombre]

http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=244





8/23/2004
Kerry crushing Bush in electoral polling
Filed under: General— site admin @ 9:23 pm

Click to enlarge.

Sen. John Kerry is leading Bush in every battleground state but two, Ohio and West Virginia, according to the latest Zogby Interactive Poll commissioned by the Wall Street Journal.

“The other 14 states in the poll go to Mr. Kerry, giving him his biggest lead – in terms of the number of states – since Zogby began conducting twice-a-month polls for WSJ.com in late May.”

From current data, Zogby predicts that Kerry will win with a devastating 324 to 214 electoral votes. Political Wire, one of Washington’s top political weblogs, notes that this is even higher than presaged by the Electoral Vote Predictor, another independent electoral polling compilation site.

Zoby says there is reason to view the current results with caution. He doesn’t necessarily believe Kerry will win in an electoral landslide.

Kerry’s lead has narrowed in five states since the Aug. 2 poll, moving inside the margin of error in two relative strongholds, Michigan and Minnesota. Mr. Bush increased his lead in Ohio, moving outside the margin of error for the first time since June

[59millionmorons]

1. Sorry

Not a beleiver in Zogby international polls. Just not reliable enough for me.

[richmwill]

2. But I WANT to believe...

That would be so sweet on Election Night, an absolute landslide. Please let me believe :).

[RobertSeattle]

3. Kerry has been ahead in the EV since early June

From:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html

[AnnitaR]

4. Hell has froze over!! TN IS A BLUE STATE?!?!

Never thought I'd see TN BLUE on any map again!

I realize Kerry's lead here isn't large by most standards. However that TN is even considered a "Battleground State" is a miracle in and of itself but that it's swinging BLUE right now is amazing!

I must say I'm seeing a reflection of this even here in heavily Repuke East Tennessee. For the past two months I have noticed a large number of Kerry bumper stickers. For two straight weeks there wasn't a day that I drove home from work that I didn't see at least two. To many that may not sound like a big deal but for this area it is.

I have a Kerry/Edwards sticker on my car along with a "Bush is a Weapon of Mass Deception" and a "Send Bush to Iraq, Bring Our Troops Home". I have gotten only positive feedback. Quick story I was going to the mall one Saturday in West Knoxville which is the most affluent area of town. Had this elderly couple in a brand new Cadillac pull up beside me on Kingston Pike, I look over and the lady sitting in the passenger has the window rolled down and she is holding a big thumbs up at me! She was mouthing "Go Kerry!" It was hysterical because you just don't see that sort of thing here, esp not in that part of town. I normally feel like I'm the only Dem anywhere in the area. That same day heading home on the interstate my niece and I counted six Kerry stickers. Like I said for some this may not sound like much but for East TN it is a sign that we indeed have a chance here!

[skooooo]

5. Where? Looks like it's weak Bush to me..

with red outline. What are you looking at?

[AnnitaR]

8. Umm here....

See TN all in blue with WHITE outline? What are you looking at?

[skooooo]

11. i was looking at..

..electrocal-vote.com

[Yavin4]

7. Why TN Is Moving From Red To Blue

Now, I know that when we think of TN, we think Southern, Christian, fundie, country music, NASCAR, etc., but TN was growing economically throughout the Clinton years. Much like North Carolina, TN was moving from rural and mfg to high tech. That economic movement has come to a complete halt, and it may have even reversed itself. TN is losing mfg, IT, and government jobs, and when people lose jobs, they change their leadership.

At the end of the day, even the fundies have got to pay their bills.

[farmbo]

6. And the last two Ohio statewide polls both had Kerry up by 2 %

So add another 21 EVs to the margin for Kerry.

[yardwork]

10. I think that Ohio and West Virginia are still in play

It looks like the Swift Boat Liars had an impact in those two states, but I think that will fade or even backfire as more info about the Liars is revealed.

[MisterGamut]

9. Two valuable sites

I frequently check these two sites:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

The first just bases on the most recent poll for each state. The second has it's own nethodology, and they have both been giving Kerry the electoral lead for some time now. The second one, interrestingly enough, is run by a strong Bush supporter.

[Perky]

12. here is a third site

which turns color only after three sucessive polling wins.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php