Why Has No Democrat Won A Presidential Election By More Than 55% of Popular Vote . . .

[Median Democrat]

In over 40 years?

I think people are being unrealistic if they expect a landslide, except perhaps in the electoral vote. With the popular vote, the last time a Democrat won more than 50% of the popular vote was Jimmy Carter in 1976 shortly after the end of the Vietnam war where thousands of Americans died and following the impeachment of Nixon. YET, even Carter could only garner 50.1 percent of the popular vote, thus the popular vote majority was razor thin.

Bill Clinton never won a majority of the popular vote even in 1996 as an incumbent against a weak Robert Dole. Ironically, Gore came closest to winning the popular vote, but he was still under 50%. So, I think a landslide is unrealistic given that an impeachment and the thousands of dead Americans due to the Vietnam war could not pave the way for a landslide for Jimmy Carter.

Think of it this way. If John McCain himself had entered the Miss Buffalo Chip competition and brought his own banana as a prop, he would still capture about 33% of the hardcore GOP vote. I've spoken to some of them, and they are truly lost. Not a sliver of reason penetrates their partisan views. As Obama says, they take pride in being ignorant.

So, if a pundit is truly expecting Obama to be leading by large margins in the National Polls, then that pundit is, to put it kindly, ignorant of election history.

Here's the big question: When was the last time a Democrat won the popular vote by 55% of more?

* Jeopardy Theme Music *

1964 when incumbent Lyndon Johnson won the popular vote by 60% over Barry Goldwater! Yes, 44 years ago! So, for a pundit to expect Obama to be leading by more in the National Polls is just stupid particularly in today's partisan environment where a lot of folks have made up their minds long before the major parties have even nominated their candidates.

[Christa]

1. Most voters are dummies

who cannot think for themselves.

[valerief]

2. Just imagine what the percentage would be if the Dem-voting ballots

weren't tossed in the trash so often or if Dem-voters weren't kept from voting by being struck off the rolls or kept waiting in line for hours.

All that stuff has been going on since forever.

[demokatgurrl]

3. Because Democrats are gullible

and they (technically "we" but I don't) buy into scams like "I'm a moderate Republican" or "straight talker" or those of Nader and his ilk that "Democrats and republicans are the same".

[Thrill]

4. Because the whole Republican base is single issue voters. idiots

JUST CAN'T vote for someone pro-choice.

[Alter Ego]

5. Two words: The Media.

They are the reason there will never be another blowout election victory--at least by popular vote standards.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. racism

[Median Democrat]

7. Referring to the Passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act?

I have read some commentaries attributing the Democrats loss of the South to the passage of this Act. Hopefully, 40 years is enough for folks to move forward.

[lojasmo]

8. 76/20 is a pretty wide spread. EOM

[flaminbats]

9. interesting question!

Since 1908 only 7 Presidents have won more than 55% of the popular vote. Only 2..FDR and LBJ were Democrats, the remaining 5 included Harding, Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan.

Winning more than 55% of the vote rarely happens, mainly because our country is evenly split between the two parties. Only 2 of these Presidents won more than 55% of the popular vote twice, FDR and Eisenhower. FDR and Eisenhower did little to alienate partisans on the opposing side, even when running against weak opponents.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

[bigwillq]

10. A nation divided

The nation is just split right down the middle.

[Median Democrat]

12. This Is Why I Don't Understand The Landslide and Why Isn't Obama Doing Better Posts

The pundits have an agenda of raising expectations so high that Obama always looks like he is failing to meet such expectations. However, for the political junkies, we should understand that it will be extremely difficult to capture a simple majority, let alone a landslide regardless of how much John McCain or George Bush screw up. On top of this, we have a very biased media. So, I am expecting a nailbiter based on history.

[bigwillq]

13. I feel it's going to be close

I feel Obama will win but it's going to be a lot closer than some here feel. I don't think it matters who is the candidate on either side...when it comes down to it, the DEMS will vote for Obama and the repukes will vote for McCain...those in between will probably decide it, and both McCain and Obama do well with Independents. It should be interesting.

[Median Democrat]

14. Exactly - There Is Sizable Portion of the Electorate

On both sides of the aisle who are dialed into their candidate or party who are not going to budge.

I would even argue that the GOP holds an advantage in terms of sheer stubborness and resistance to actual facts, since they have a virtual industry of partisan, conservative radio and media to feed them what to think, You can live in a world of Fox News and the myriad of RW talk radio hosts such as Rush Limnbaugh, Michael Savage, etc., and never see the light of day.

In contrast, as a Democrat, is it even possible to isolate yourself from Big Media spin and GOP talking points. KO is only on for a limited time. Air America is only 1 station, and some of their hosts are only okay. I guess you could read Mother JOnes, but they tell the truth, so they are just as likely to rip on Democrats who are sell-outs as Republicans. In other words, lets say you want to isolate yourself from reality like a Republican, it is awfully hard to do so.

[book_worm]

11. well...

1968: Vietnam and HHH managed to make it close.
1972: Nixon went to Soveit Union and China and so he took the "peace" mantle away from McGovern
1976: Carter won 50% in a tight election against a sitting president.
1980: The economy due to high oil prices and hostage crisis did Carter in
1984: Reagan fooled everybody and won a landslide
1988: Dukakis had a 17-point lead after his convention but blew it, not a good campaigner. Got defined by Poppy.
1992: Clinton in a 3-way race wins 43-38 over Poppy with 19% for Perot.
1996: Clinton gains but still can't get over 50% and beat old man Dole by about 10-pts 49-39, Perot no doubt kept Clinton under 50%
2000: Gore won popular vote but given the economy he should have done better than a 550,000 vote margin. Clinton scandals didn't help.
2004: 9/11 fever still in the air. Bush barely wins 51/48 in popular vote.