Something doesn't make sense about poll results on Iraq war and national security

[ProSense]

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. July 31-Aug. 4, 2008. N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

"When it comes to the situation in Iraq, do you approve or disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling that issue?" If "mixed feelings" or not sure: "If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approve or disapprove?"

7/31 - 8/4/08
Approve 34%
Disapprove 62%

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. July 27-29, 2008. N=1,041 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).

"Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Iraq?"

Favor 33%

Oppose 66%


"Who do you think is currently winning the war in Iraq: the U.S. and its allies, the insurgents in Iraq, or neither side?" N=527, MoE ± 4.5 (Form A)

U.S. and Allies 37%
Insurgents 6%
Neither Side 57%


"Which comes closer to your view about U.S. troops in Iraq? The U.S. should set a timetable for withdrawal by announcing that it will remove all of its troops from Iraq by a certain date. The U.S. should keep troops in Iraq as long as necessary without setting any timetable for withdrawal." Options rotated

Set a Timetable 62

Not Set a Timetable 37

Democrats won the 2006 election by a landslide on the Iraq war. Lincoln Chafee lost his seat because of Republicans' support of Bush's policies on the war. Chris Shays and Lieberman had to fight for their political lives on the issue of Iraq.

With the current polling showing similar results to 2006, why is McCain ahead?

It doesn't make sense.


(On edit, to be clear: it makes even less sense because these are the only two issues the Republicans always seem to be ahead on, and now the results of head-to-head polls are running counter to public opinion on these isssues).

[jgraz]

1. Many on the left are no longer "likely voters"

Obama's Summer of Collapse has turned off the youth vote and turned off progressives. Many of us pointed out the political downside during the Dems' FISA capitulation and now we're seeing the results.

[ProSense]

3. What are you talking about?

Obama is well ahead

[jgraz]

4. Didn't Gallup just show them even among likely voters?

[ProSense]

8. That has nothing to with what I posted, and

still doesn't make sense of your response: "Obama's Summer of Collapse"?

[jgraz]

10. It has everything to do with your post. I'm not sure how much more I can connect the dots for you

And yes: The Summer of Collapse. I'm tired of listing the issues that Obama has caved on, starting with FISA. Why are people so surprised that McSame has caught him in the polls, especially among likely voters?

[ProSense]

11. "I'm tired of listing the issues that Obama has caved on" You have a problem, but

your "Summer of Collapse" has nothing to do with the reality of Obama's lead. McCain is losing this race.

[MadMaddie]

2. McCain is not ahead....

Don't pay attention to the polls.

They are manipulating the polls and the numbers....we have been so conditioned to react to the polls we don't really know where they are getting the numbers from. The polls are over rated.

[JuniperLea]

5. You got that exactly right!

The polls are only to confuse people into thinking that the race is close. They need the people to think the race is close so they can MAKE McCain win just like they MADE Bush win. If it's not close, people might suspect something is up.

[ProSense]

6. I know.

It's bizarre that McCain keeps edging Obama on managing the war when most Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of both his war in Iraq and his war on terror.

[lob1]

7. I agree with you, ProSense. I think the presidential polls are cooked.

Those poles don't match up with other poles where republicans are about as popular as herpes.

[mtnester]

9. Because people vote with their wallets

and right now, they cannot decide which candidate will benefit them financially.

Elections are not about the high ground in this country anymore...at all.