My State by State Election Projection

[darius15]

State


National O+3
Washington O+12
Oregon 0+7
California 0+16
Alaska M+8
Hawaii O+25
Idaho M+16
Nevada Tie
Utah M+26
Arizona M+12
Montana M+1
Wyoming M+17
Colorado O+1
New Mexico O+7
North Dakota M+4
South Dakota M+7
Nebraska M+19
Kansas M+14
Oklahoma M+23
Texas M+9
Minnesota O+9
Iowa O+7
Missouri M+3
Arkansas M+12
Louisiana M+14
Wisconsin O+9
Illinois O+17
Michigan O+4
Florida M+2
Mississipi M+11
Alabama M+18
Georgia M+7
South Carolina M+9
North Carolina M+4
Tennessee M+16
Kentucky M+15
West Virginia M+11
Virginia O+1
Indiana M+2
Ohio O+2
Pennsylvania O+8
Maryland O+21
Delaware O+10
New Jersey O+11
New York O+19
Connecticut O+18
Massachusetts O+15
Rhode Island O+22
Vermont O+26
New Hampshire O+4
Maine O+13
DC O+52

With Toss Ups (within 3 percent): Obama 264, McCain 186, Toss Up 88

My Toss Up States: NV, MT, CO, IN, OH, VA, FL

With no Toss Ups: Obama 306, McCain 232

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1. That looks pretty solid.

[BeatleBoot]

2. What in the world are you basing Michigan on?

[darius15]

6. I'm basing it on

538 projection, RCP Average, latest polls, senate race, and gut feeling.

[Zynx]

7. Obama leads in Michigan consistently.

[Faygo Kid]

9. Obama by 4 sounds about right.

Given the economy, it should be Obama by 20, but western Michigan is still solid Bush country (yuck), and race is a big issue to get around in Michigan.

[blue_onyx]

12. I may be too optimistic but

I'm predicting a bigger win in Michigan, maybe 7-8% (and 10% nationally). It's higher than most polls have shown but I think Obama will rise once we get closer to the election. I feel Obama will at least do better in Michigan than Gore (a little over 5%) and Kerry (a little over 3%). I remember a poll from a few months back that showed more people blamed Bush for the economy rather than the Governor. So as long as McCain keeps pushing the same economic policies of Bush and as long as Obama keeps pushing the McCain-Bush connection, I believe Obama will have a solid win here.

[darius15]

13. Yeah I agree that...

Obama may have a larger lead on election day after people see Obama and McCain in the debates and conventions. But this projection is of what would happen if the election was held today, and if it was held on August 10th, I think Michigan would go for Obama by 4.

[Faygo Kid]

14. Welcome to DU. Will Kwame have an impact?

I know how angry people are about Kwame. Could he depress voter turnout in Detroit? Spur the racists to vote in greater numbers?

[blue_onyx]

18. I doubt it.

Racist are probably already motivated against Obama....they don't need a scandal like this to convince them to show up to vote against Obama. So I don't think that the issues with the mayor will effect things much. I also think the large African American population in Detroit will still come out to support Obama as well. Plus I feel Kwame will be out of office soon (or at least I hope so) so by the time the election comes, it won't be as big of an issue.

[Faygo Kid]

19. True. Kwame being gone soon looks like a sure thing.

Like I said, welcome to DU from this Michigander transplanted to Maryland by work for a few years.

Next decade, I'm retiring to Traverse City.

http://www.record-eagle.com/webcam

[blue_onyx]

22. Thanks

Thanks for the welcome. I have actually been coming here for awhile but just signed up and started joining in recently. Good to hear you're coming back. Currently unemployed and hope I don't have to leave the state (although not looking good as of now).

[blue_onyx]

15. oh, ok

I didn't realize you meant if the election were held today. In that case, I agree with your projection.

[barack the house]

3. Looks a real good breakdown of the stats. 270 sounds very doable.

[KansasVoter]

4. I think Obama wins Missouri. A lot of Obama voter registration happening every weekend.

[Faygo Kid]

5. Good job.

This is very reasonable. For this day in August, of course. Long time left.

[AZBlue]

8. Arizona may not go for McCain

[darius15]

10. I really doubt it

A few polls of Arizona came out this week and showed McCain up by double digits. Unless it's an Obama landslide (which it could be after the debates), then Arizona will go red. But this is just a projection of what would happen if the election was August 10th, so who knows what could happen?

[AZBlue]

17. Which ones?

Do you have links? I'd like to see them as I'm tracking this.
The ones I've seen from the past month all show Obama up by at least a couple of points.

[darius15]

24. These are the two that came out just recently...

PPP (D) 7/30-31/08 1000 LV McCain 52 Obama 40 -
Rasmussen 7/30/08 500 LV McCain 57 Obama 38

[Blue_In_AK]

11. It's hard telling how Alaska will go.

So far I personally haven't seen a whole lot of enthusiasm up here for either candidate among the people that I've come in contact with, and judging by yard signs in my own neighborhood. Obama has an active presence here at least, which McCain doesn't, so that will probably serve him well, but most of the interest here seems to be focused on the House and Senate races.

[mvd]

16. I'll do the state predictions, too

National O+5
Washington O+10
Oregon 0+5
California 0+16
Alaska M+6
Hawaii O+25
Idaho M+16
Nevada O+3
Utah M+26
Arizona M+12
Montana O+1
Wyoming M+19
Colorado O+3
New Mexico O+5
North Dakota M+2
South Dakota M+4
Nebraska M+17
Kansas M+12
Oklahoma M+21
Texas M+7
Minnesota O+9
Iowa O+8
Missouri O+2
Arkansas M+9
Louisiana M+12
Wisconsin O+9
Illinois O+19
Michigan O+5
Florida M+2
Mississipi M+13
Alabama M+18
Georgia M+7
South Carolina M+5
North Carolina O+1
Tennessee M+16
Kentucky M+18
West Virginia O+1
Virginia O+2
Indiana M+2
Ohio O+4
Pennsylvania O+7
Maryland O+21
Delaware O+10
New Jersey O+11
New York O+22
Connecticut O+18
Massachusetts O+17
Rhode Island O+22
Vermont O+26
New Hampshire O+4
Maine O+13
DC O+52

I left some of yours the same. I see a blow out after Obama gets to be known more, but election fraud could always come into play.

[Faygo Kid]

20. A little optimistic, but good job. Election fraud will no doubt come into play.

It already has, with this "voter ID" fraudulent stuff.

[mvd]

21. Thanks. The extent of the election fraud could make it be more like..

the OP's numbers IMO. We certainly have to be on guard. :hi:

[darius15]

25. LOL

[opihimoimoi]

23. Hawaii closes LAST...WE are the SWING STATE......LOL