For all those predicting a landslide, it's going to be close.

[PresidentObama]

Win or lose, it'll be a close race.

Barack Obama won't win by a landslide.

And like wise, heaven forbid, if McCain wins.

It's going be just like 2000 and 2004, with the election coming down to the wire and things generally close.

Keep in mind according to Electoral-Vote.com, on this day in 2004:

Kerry was leading the electoral map by 307-231. It was beginning to look like a Kerry landslide, and I remember saying so to my friends and family looking at the state-by-state polls.

Kerry lead in Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, West Virginia, and Florida.

Which of those states that he lead in this time in 2004 did he actually win?

ZERO!

So it's great to see Electoral-Vote show Obama ahead by 289 to 249 electoral votes.

But can we stop getting overconfident?

We still have a few months to go, and the race is heating up.

Someone posted an Alaska poll, showing Obama leading by a few points. The first thing some are probably going to say is "Wow, another sign of an Obama landslide"

Here's the results from AK for the last few four elections:

2004: Kerry 35%, Bush 62%
2000: Gore 28%, Bush 59%
1996: Clinton 33%, Dole 51%
1992: Clinton 30%, Bush 40%

In not ONE election, has a Democrat got above 40% in Alaska in the last four elections.

In all but one, the Republicans got 50%+ and the majority of votes. Only one that didn't break 50% was in 1992, when Perot made it a three way race.

It's great we're putting effort into Alaska. I read that Obama has offices there, and I'm sure the scandals will help.

But it's not going to happen.

As for winning, we'll win if the election was held today.

But we shouldn't get cocky.

I just don't understand this notion that some believe Obama will win by a landslide...

We can stay positive, and still be realistic. Can't we?

:shrug:

EDIT: By the way today is my birthday, and four years ago at this time I was putting on my Kerry t-shirt that my family got me :)

I was never more hopeful in my life than on that day. Celebrating another year of life, and looking forward to President Kerry in 2005.

How I wish...

[PeacePuppy]

1. That's why we have to work so hard, and why I . . .

created http://obamascrapbook. To help you talk to the timid and confused who we must have on our side on election day. I hope it helps! Please share it.

[bluestateguy]

2. Obama has the potential to win a landslide, but that does not mean he will

I see what you are saying, but the variables are in place for him to win a landslide. Having said that, events can intervene and Obama might fail to capitalize on potential advantages.

[book_worm]

3. Exactly it will be hard work, but if he won popular vote by 5% it would be an electoral landslide.

[Bobbieo]

4. Happy Birthday - and you are right, if Obama wins it is going to be close.

I can only hope he makes it - Otherwise, we will have a Demo Congress and a Repub Pres and be no better off than we are today - may be worse!!!! Probably worse!!!!!

[PresidentObama]

5. Thank you! n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

6. The popular vote will be closer (5-7 point Obama win).

But the electoral college won't be. Expect Obama to win that by 100+ electoral votes.

[AtomicKitten]

7. yep

:thumbsup:

[darius15]

8. can't predict what will happen in Nov.

but if it was held today, Obama would win the pop vote by 1-2 percent and get aroudn 290-300 EV

[Drunken Irishman]

9. If it were held today, I think Obama would win by 5-points and over 300 EC votes.

[Zynx]

10. That's impossible to say at this juncture.

It could be a 5-6 point margin, which isn't very close at all. I could have looked at virtually any election and predicted a "close race" including 1980 and 1988.

[Fluffdaddy]

11. The Bradley Effect is worrying the hell out of me.

I'm scared to death that 10-15% of peeps in pink states will vote race. Just enuff for mcCazy to win.