August 13 Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 327, Bush 211.

[Occam Bandage]

Up 6 in FL, up 1 in MO, up 4 in WV, only 3 back in VA, only 2 back in TN and AR.

Just in case you start feeling like Obama's got this one in the bag. We've still got plenty of work to do, people.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug13.html

(For comparison, current figures are at http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Aug13.html)

[liberalmuse]

1. Well, that's encouraging.

I don't think I'll ever think a Democrat has it in the bag again. Not with these fascist goons in power.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. You could tell Kerry was in trouble then.

I know you're trying to prove Kerry was better off than Obama 4 years ago, but this actually solidifies my belief Obama is in good position to win this thing.

Kerry had 8 states that were BARELY KERRY on that map. He was also winning the election, barely, with Ohio, Missouri and Florida INCLUDED.

Now compare it to Obama.

Obama only has 4 states BARELY OBAMA. He's also winning the electoral college without Florida, Ohio and Missouri. Kerry couldn't say the same thing. McCain, though, has 7 states listed as BARELY McCain, compared to only 4 for Bush in 2004.

This shows Kerry had very soft support, while Bush had solid support, though still lagged behind. The opposite is true this time around, but Obama leads instead.

[Abacus]

3. I'm siding with the OP

Obama looked great until last week and still looks great if you ignore undecideds, but extrapolating based Rasmussen's leaners indicates a potential problem. My EV count actually has McCain ahead at the moment. On average, leaners are going for McCain 55% to 45%, but it states like Michigan, New Hampshire, & Colorado, Obama is only getting 33%, 29%, & 17% of the leaners (respectively). This is a problem that most EV projections don't seem to account for; instead they disregard the undecideds.

We can't afford to coast through this one.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Side with him/her all you want, just makes two wrong people.

No one is saying we should coast through this one. However, at this moment, Obama is performing better in many states than Kerry did and has less weak states. Weak support indicates a problem, as it did in 2004 for Kerry. Obama has far more strong support than McCain, which is why you rarely see his numbers dip in the polls. If McCain makes gains, it's mostly at the expense of undecideds and not Obama. He consistently polls at 45% nationally and in many of these states.

[Occam Bandage]

5. I'm hardly suggesting that Kerry was better off than Obama was.

Simply that things change, and that it's best not take EV leads for granted.

[Faygo Kid]

6. Point well taken. Kerry lost it when he said he would still have voted to authorize Iraq attack.

Of course, that is not to absolve the cheating in Ohio and Florida, the disenfranchisement of many voters, the Swift Boaters, and other Rovian tactics.

But the air went out of the balloon when Kerry said, with all he knew, that he would still have voted to authorize Bush to invade Iraq.

By the way, Edwards was just about the lousiest running mate I have ever seen. A sure sign of what was to come. He was awful.

I remember reading that Kerry wanted his friend, Gephardt. Had he chosen him, he might have overcome the cheating.

Barack won't make that same mistake.

[PresidentObama]

7. EXACTLY. For all those looking overconfident. And then the SBVT threw the kitchen sink, and Kerry...

...started to sink.

[AndyTiedye]

8. It Was The Mighty Slime Machine That Threw the Kitchen Sink

The SBVT just fabricated a kitchen sink for them to throw.

[Median Democrat]

9. Well, Looking Back at 2004, I Predict Big Media Will Cover DNC As Follows

I know you folks are eager for the DNC convention, but why wait? I looked at some old clippings regarding the coverage of past conventions by Big Media, and I offer the following preview of what we can expect. You will see that neither the GOP nor Big Media are even very original. However, they do have a monopoly on the airwaves, which is why they are so effective. Sadly, despite this preview of what will be said, folks on DU will fall for the spin like they did in 2000 and in 2004:

A lot of this is based on reviewing the events of the 2004 election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004_timeline

Without further adieu, here is a glimpse of the future:

August 25 - Michelle Obama and Nancy Pelosi Speak. Tape of Edward Kennedy.

Raucas and loud. People are crying following Kennedy's taped speech. Michelle Obama will give a heartfelt speech about the man she loves, and everyone will know how deeply Michelle and Barack are in love. Also, Obama as a father will be highlighted.

MSM Spin - Middle America cannot connect with Michelle. Nancy Pelosi is balmed by Hillary Clinton supporters (5 people actually booing). Discussion will focus on tension between Clintons and Kennedys. John Edwards will be heavily discussed at this point, and Edwards affair will be raised, and whether the Obama canpaign knew. Then, media will focus on comparisons between John Edwards and Bill Clinton with no mention of John McCain's affair. Likewise, no mention will be made of the fact that McCain's children largely grew up without him present and helping either Carol or Cindy raise their kids.

August 26 - Hillary Clinton and Mark Warner speak. Chelsea will introduce mom.

Raucas and loud. People wildly cheer Hillary. Goes without a hitch. The progress of women will discussed and celebrated. The fact that it is the Democratic Party, not the GOP, that has had serious women candidates for President will discussed. People at the convention will say that Chelsea has a future in politics.

MSM Spin - Big Media will focus on 3 to 4 people who are throwing a hissy fit about Hillary. Talking point will be about the divided Democratic party, and Hillary's aspirations for 2012. Mark Penn will be praised as the ignored genius, then Hillary will be criticized about how she was an idiot for not following Penn's advice. Then media will focus on what if Hillary was a candidate, and conclude that she would be a stronger candidate than Obama. Press will ignore that the GOP has never had a serious woman Presidential candidate, and focus on how Hillary fell short, and how Democrats should be mad and bitter about this. Then, media will focus on Hillary voters who will support John McCain with no mention of McCain's positions on issues important to women.

August 27 - VP Candidate speaks.

Raucas and loud. VP candidate will do a great job of talking about Barack Obama's background. Obama's childhood as a child of single mother will be explained, as well as his mother's Kansas roots, and father family discussed. Goes without a hitch. People on the ground will murmur about how they received a text message regarding Obama's VP choice at the same time as the networks.

MSM Spin - Bitter Hillary supporters are upset that Hillary is not VP. Obama is perceived as exotic and foreign. VP was only chosen for political reasons, rather than qualifications. Corsi book will be discussed, and smears will be repeated. Talking point will be whether Obama is too exotic and foreign. Media will discuss how elite Obama is without mention of Obama's middle class upbringing, or McCain's privileged childhood. Finally, media types will bitch about not being given an exclusive regarding who is the VP, and deride the direct notification of Obama supporters of the VP choice, as an ineffective stunt, since Big Media knew who it was all along.

August 28 - Obama's Acceptance Speech

It will be like nothing you have heard or seen before in your life. The stadium will be deafening. Obama will give a speech that will have people crying. The murmur from the older folks on the ground is that it reminds them of the excitement surrounding Bob and John Kennedy.

MSM Spin - Hours of coverage of about 100 Hillary Clinton protesters while ignoring the 65,000 cheering Democrats in the stadium. Media will say Obama is presumptuous, arrogant, lacks substance, etc. Media will repeat the "celebrity" talking point about 1000 times. Media will then finish by asking why despite such a great event, Obama is not leading McCain by more. Networks will only show Obama's speech, but for every hour of coverage, there will be 3 hours of "analysis."