The Daily Widget – Thursday, Aug 14 – Obama 328, McCain 210 – Obama Down 7

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


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1. ANALYSIS

The Daily Widget is taking a hiatus starting tomorrow and throughout all next week, and will return on Monday, August 25. The Math Weekly will still be posted Saturday evening/Sunday morning on both weekends.

Of the eight state polls released yesterday, only two had an impact on our strength categories and only one switched sides. Nevada is now polling with a McCain lead (+3), and Washington moves a step to the right (Obama +7).

The Washington poll was conducted by Survey USA, which had also showed Oregon with a shrinking Obama lead (+3) earlier this week. There have been a few changes on our electoral map since Survey USA “got busy” a couple weeks ago:

Florida - McCain +6 (was Obama +2)
Missouri - McCain +5 (was Obama +5)
Oregon - Obama +3 (was Obama +10)
Virginia - McCain +1 (was Obama +2)
Washington - Obama +7 (was Obama +12)

Not to suggest that Survey USA is wrong or biased, but they did this four years ago with states such as California. I’m guessing they don’t have a good handle on the West Coast.

And it is interesting …

Could Indiana be next?


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS


Kansas Obama 41, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 8/11, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada Obama 45, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 8/11, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey Obama 51, McCain 41 (Quinnipiac University, 8/10, +/- 2.6, 1468 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 46, McCain 41 (Franklin & Marshall College, 8/10, +/- 3.9, 641 RV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 8/12, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 43, McCain 43 (Insider Advantage, 8/12, +/- 5.0, 416 LV)
Washington Obama 51, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 8/12, +/- 3.7, 718 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 47, McCain 42 (Strategic Vision, 8/10, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[Demeter]

1. Oh, P-Man This is Getting Scary!

The drift to the right is visible in the 6 Column table. I know McCain has been getting a lot of propaganda time on the MSM, but for people to actually buy into it?

Have a restful break--you earned it.

[phrigndumass]

2. Yup, it's edge of seat territory, lol

VP pick, convention, debates. I keep reminding myself of those three things. :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

6. Of Course, the Minute You Fold Down the Laptop, All Hell Will Break Loose

and you will be either chewing nails or blogging or both. It always works that way.

[phrigndumass]

7. Resistance is futile, lol

Especially since I have a wireless internet connection down by the creek :D

Must. Resist. Kryptonite.

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good Morning!

hmm Survey USA... :eyes:

We'll miss you! Have a nice relaxing break. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks :)

Relaxing is the goal. :D

:donut: Good morning backatcha! :hi: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Off to work kick

:kick: Have a good day!

[my3boyz]

8. Oh Barack is losing Washington and Oregon! Fold the tent. It is over!

:sarcasm:

[grantcart]

9. just got back from a long trip

notice some slippage in Obama states but the most interesting to me is Florida is so close.

I saw a news report that Obama had massive ad buys in Florida ($ 6 million) while McCain has had none.

It may be a test market to see how effective their advertising is - it seems to have worked very well

[Kdillard]

10. Not liking the slippage but am hoping it is a temporary trend

and that as you said the convention and vp choice will give him a boost. I am also hoping the debates go really well for Obama.

[grantcart]

11. any results in trying to refigure minority numbers in places like Texas?