Poll: McCain, Obama in virtual dead heat (Pew research poll - Obama leading by 3 points)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/08/14/Poll_McCain_Obama_in_virtual_dead_heat/UPI-87401218721819/

WASHINGTON, Aug. 14 (UPI) -- The major party U.S. presidential candidates are in a virtual tie just weeks before the parties' nominating conventions begin, a Pew research poll indicates.

Forty-six percent of registered voters asked said they favor or lean toward presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., while 43 percent back Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., his likely Republican rival, the Pew Research for the People and the Press results released Wednesday indicate.

In late June, Obama held a 48 percent-to-40 percent margin over McCain.

Pew said two factors may be the reason for the shift. First, McCain is getting more support from the Republican base than in June; and second, the Arizona Republican has made gains in his leadership image.

Obama has made little progress in increasing his support among core Democrats since June, researchers said.

Among swing voters, Pew results indicate 12 percent lean toward Obama, 11 percent favor McCain and 10 percent are undecided.

-snip-

Emphasis added.

It's good news that Obama still has a 3-point lead.

It's bad news that his lead has slipped by 5 points.

And it's important to note that the problem is that Obama's support among Democrats has NOT increased since the primaries ended. While MCCain is uniting the Republicans.

More evidence that we'll need a unity ticket, Obama/Clinton, to beat McCain in November.

[BklynChick]

1. how is that evidence that we need Clinton specifically on the ticket?

[Colobo]

2. Your only purpose over here is to promote that ticket.

[highplainsdem]

6. Yeah, right -- that's why I've posted so many favorable topics about Obama, his wife, and even David

Axelrod.

So you can knock off the silly bashing of Clinton and her supporters, though it seems to be one of your favorite games here.

I'm not going to apologize for pointing out why we need a unity ticket. It's our best chance of beating McCain, and I'm tired of seeing Democrats lose elections.

[paulk]

is there something wrong with that?

After all, your only purpose on this board has been to promote Barrack Obama.

[rinsd]

12. When done in a fashion to denigrate the nominee, it is.

[paulk]

16. I don't see how this thread denigrates the nominee

[rinsd]

19. Calling this evidence that a unity ticket is needed.

That Obama can't win without Hillary.

That he is so flawed his VP pick must be huge.

Its the tone in which its presented.

It ignores that Hillary may push away some new voters, has weak favorability numbers, comes from a state & region where no "hometown" boost is necessary. Also her relatively junior status as a Senator plays into the argument of inexperience (the GOP would have a field day with those internal memos releases).

And you know who I fought for during the primaries.

[highplainsdem]

17. It isn't "denigrating the nominee" to point out that polls show the party isn't united and a unity

ticket is our best chance of beating McCain.

I've posted a lot of favorable topics about Obama here, probably more than many of the Clinton-bashers who attack me for saying we need a unity ticket.

I can support the nominee without being foolishly blind to the fact that Clinton got approximately as many primary votes as he did, and he needs her supporters to win in November.

[rinsd]

20. 80%+ behind you is pretty damn united.

Insinuating that I am a Clinton basher is laughable.

I was here fighting for her before she even announced.

"the fact that Clinton got approximately as many primary votes as he did,"

She came close in popular vote but lost the delegate count handily. The nominee has been chosen.

"and he needs her supporters to win in November."

He's got 72% after a very heated and drawn out primary. McCain hasn't had an opponent for months. Of course his share of his opponents supporter will be higher.

McCain's unifying of the GOP involves an increase of 4 pts. Obama increased his former Clintyn support by 3 pts. Also Obama losing ground in this poll is more attributable to white men. Something he beat Hillary in regularly before the GOP decided to have a little fun with our primaries.

Also from Pew

"While Sen. McCain is attracting more support from Republicans than Sen. Obama is from Democrats, McCain's backers continue to be less enthusiastic about him than are Obama supporters about their candidate. Fewer than half of McCain's backers (39%) describe themselves as strong supporters of the Arizona senator, compared with 58% of Obama backers who say they support Obama strongly. The McCain supporters who back him "only moderately" are most troubled by his positions on economic issues, while Obama's soft supporters are most troubled by his personal abilities and experience."

McCain's support is weaker than Obama's, something we saw with Clinton's support (while she certainly had her core, her leads above that were weak.)

[ErinBerin84]

3. we've already had a few threads on this poll.

[berni_mccoy]

4. WTF!?! "12 percent lean toward Obama, 11 percent favor McCain and 10 percent are undecided"

Where are the other 67%?

[highplainsdem]

14. That's how the 33% of voters Pew found were undecided are leaning.

12 + 11 + 10 = 33%

Here, from the Pew Research site page on that poll:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/924/presidential-race-draws-even

As was the case in Pew's June and July surveys, one in three voters (33%) can be categorized as swing voters - of this group 12% lean to Obama. 11% lean to McCain and 10% are undecided.

Polls I've seen tend to show either Obama and McCain getting approximately equal numbers of swing/independent voters, or McCain getting more of them (which, along with Obama getting less support from Democrats than McCain gets from Republicans, is why the polls show the race so close).

[book_worm]

5. I wonder why the media is spending so much on this poll and not on Gallup which polled

more recently than this poll which gives Obama a 7-point lead or Harris which gives Obama a 9-point lead. There's also a new poll by IBD/TIPP which gives Obama a 5-point lead, up from 3 last month.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/TIPP_pollpic081408.pdf

I don't care if he chooses Hillary or not, but he will win either with her or without her and he's already doing better in polls and states than Clinton, Gore or Kerry did.

[Hope And Change]

7. I think this is the 59th time you mention that Obama needs Clinton on his ticket.

THE PRIMARY IS OVER.

[tedoll78]

11. Umm..

From what I can see in HPD's original post, he/she isn't fighting the primary - HPD is advocating for a certain VP candidate.

There is a difference between these two actions - learn that difference.

[Hope And Change]

21. Umm.And you should re-read my post again if you want to understand what I`m trying to say...

Learn to do that first.

[tedoll78]

22. How very convenient..

now that you've edited it.

[Hope And Change]

24. You must be kidding right?What exacty did I edit that made any difference?Are you stalking me..

or something?

Or maybe you are just another attention whore.

[Hope And Change]

25. Oh and more thing.I have already added you to the ignore list.

Bye bye.

[tedoll78]

26. Oh darn.

My day is so ruined..

[rinsd]

8. Clinton kills a ticket that McCain and the GOP wish to project as inexperienced.

Couple that with the baggage and apparent refusal to let this go and she is the worst choice for VP.

[highplainsdem]

9. More from Pew Research site: Obama supported by only 83% of Dems (including only 72% of Clinton

supporters).

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/924/presidential-race-draws-even

Two factors appear to be at play in shifting voter sentiment. First, McCain is garnering more support from his base - including Republicans and white evangelical Protestants - than he was in June, and he also has steadily gained backing from white working class voters over this period. Secondly and more generally, the Arizona senator has made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done.

Conversely, Obama has made little progress in increasing his support among core Democrats since June - currently 83% favor him compared with 87% of Republicans who back McCain. The likely Democratic nominee is still getting relatively modest support from Hillary Clinton's former supporters: 72% of them support Obama, compared with the 88% support level that McCain receives from backers of his formal GOP rivals. Obama's strong points with voters are in being seen as the candidate with new ideas and as someone who connects well with ordinary people.

[book_worm]

10. the new IBD/TIPP poll which shows Obama strengthening his lead

has Obama leading among dems 80-7 and McCain up with republicans 82-9, among conservatives Obama is getting 19% of the vote compared to 57% for McCain and 19% undecided. Looks like McCain is having some trouble with his base.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/TIPP_pollpic081408.pdf

Ultimately most Hillary supporters will "come home" with or without her on the ticket. I should say most have and the few remaining who haven't will for the most part.

[slick8790]

15. John Kerry only got 89% of Dems. Gore only got 86%.

2 1/2 months out from the election, and pre-convention, I'd say Obama's Dem support is just fine. He doesn't need to squeeze out 5-6% more of the Dem vote at the expense of 10-12% of the independent vote he'd lose with Clinton on the ticket.


*edit* Bill Clinton only got 84% of Democrats in 1996.

[paulk]

30. where do you get the 10-12% of the independent vote

Obama loses with Hillary on the ticket? Is that from a poll or is it just your personal feeling?

[DevonRex]

13. I'm sick of the HRC supporters who aren't on board. They're worse

than disgusting right wing wackos. I don't give a rat's ass about their "feelings." Bottom line, if they don't vote for the democrat, then they're not democrats themselves.

Pretty simple:

Are you a democrat? Yes or no. If no, vote for McCain or stay home.

Do you support the democratic platform? Yes or no. If no, vote republican or stay home.

[paulk]

29. now there's a winning attitude

are you using that argument in your canvassing?

---------

Maybe that's why McCain is now ahead in CO.

[cliffordu]

This is evidence that everybody shilling for the Obama/Clinton ticket is fracturing

the time/space continuum. That's what these polls really mean.

[JoshDem]

18. This is a Poll of Registered Not Likely Voters

So subtract about 3 points and you have a dead even contest.

[Teaser]

23. No such thing as a "virtual dead heat"

.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

27. Hey, maybe Clinton will overthrow Obama in a Convention putsch

& youll have your Clinton/Obama ticket!

You cracks me up. :*

[rniel]

28. Bill??

is that you???

[DU GrovelBot]

31. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

==================
GROVELBOT.EXE v4.1
==================



This week is our third quarter 2008 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
a completely independent website. We depend on donations from our members
to cover our costs. Please take a moment to donate! Thank you!