Rasmussen: Obama expands lead in Maine. 53% to 39%

[usregimechange]

Friday, August 15, 2008

Barack Obama has marginally expanded his lead over John McCain in Maine. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Democrat ahead 49% to 36%.

When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 53% to 39%.

Last month, Obama had a ten point lead over McCain, representing a much tighter race than the 20-point margin the Democrat enjoyed in June.

A noticeable change this month comes from voters not affiliated with either major party. This month, Obama now leads among unaffiliated voters 48% to 32%. In July, the candidates were nearly tied among this demographic.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election

[Muttocracy]

1. even if all the undecideds went to McCain, Obama would win with that lead! nt

[fascisthunter]

2. yes-sah

then again, polls rarely are trustworthy so take this one with a grain of salt

[grantcart]

3. excellent

[rockymountaindem]

4. Whoop-de-doo

Obama should start worrying about Ohio and Colorado

[usregimechange]

6. True, he needs one of them, imo

[rockymountaindem]

7. Maybe I'm biased but I think CO is the better bet

For CO to matter we also have to win all the Kerry states (which are apparently in the bag) plus IA and NM. According to everything I've seen that should not be a problem. With all of those states, CO will put us over the top.

CO is a better investment than Ohio because it is more cost-effective to campaign here. Media costs less and there are really only two media markets: Denver and Colorado Springs. In Ohio there are multiple markets and I assume we would have to be on the air in all of them simultaneously in order to make a serious statewide impact. That would cost a lot of money whereas investing on CO media would cost less not only because we have fewer markets but also because air time is notoriously cheap here. Also, this state has been undergoing a massive shift toward the Democrats since 2004. I won't go into it all now but suffice to say we have absolutely dominated in the last two cycles and won victories of historic proportions on the state level. We've also got a very popular Dem. running for Senate in the form of Mark Udall who is currently leading in the most recent polls by 6-7% (according to Rassmussen, which has McCain up 1% here). So, rather than Obama providing coattails for our down-ballot candidates, I think Udall could provide coattails for Obama. I really think Obama needs to do more in this state instead of just relying on the convention to give him massive free publicity. I can tell you that the McCain ads are outnumbering ours by a large margin, which should not be happening given the huge fundraising advantage we've got. Instead of pouring money into long-shot states like NC and IN, or in Montana which only has 3 electoral votes, I think we should be campaigning our asses off here in Colorado.

Of course, I could be biased.

[27inCali]

10. the Rocky Mountain/Big Sky Region

is starting to look like fertile ground for the Dems in the coming years to help change the electoral map permanently. CO is a great example.

Think of how helpful it would be for future Dem pres nominees to be able to focus on CO, NM, AZ, NV all of which are cheaper and easier to campaign in than the traditional swing states of FL, OH, PA which are a little bit too conservative to be hinging our electoral strategies on.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Are you saying he isn't worrying about Ohio and Colorado?

A big reason Kerry and Gore were thrown off their game is because at the last minute they needed to "keep" what many thought were a safe Democratic state. Remember the Kerry campaign making a late push in New Jersey, Hawaii and California in October of 2004? Well that took time and money away from the battle ground states. Yeah, it probably wasn't enough to change the election, but it didn't help.

One less "close" state the better. Especially Maine, which has a history of being one of the weakest (next to New Hampshire) Democratic New England states. Remember, Gore only managed to carry Maine by 5 points in 2000.

[darius15]

5. Maine looks safe for Obama but there's something to watch for

Maine has a very high number of independents. In 04, it was 31% Dem, 31% Rep., and 38 % Independent.

Luckily, the independents have a strong Democratic lean, but if the right Repub came along (NOT MCCAIN) then this state could be competitive.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Yes, Bush did extremely well in Maine in 2000.

Losing by only 5-points.

[depakid]

11. Question for Mainers: how will you use this to dump your Bush enabling Senator?