GALLUP: Tied at 44. Movement away from Obama rather than toward McCain.

[jefferson_dem]

Gallup Daily: McCain, Obama Tied at 44%Obama’s support down slightlyUSA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ -- If the election were held today, registered voters would be equally likely to vote for John McCain (44%) or Barack Obama (44%), according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.

The Aug. 12-14 polling shows a slight dip in Obama's support, which had ranged between 46% and 48% (averaging 47%) in August. McCain has averaged 43% support among registered voters so far in August. Thus, the closer margin seen in today's results is due more to movement away from Obama than toward McCain. Twelve percent of registered voters now say they are undecided or supporting another candidate, which is on the high end of what Gallup has measured this year.

Voter preferences have been closely divided between Obama and McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling, underscoring the notion that the race has tightened for the moment.This could to some degree reflect Obama's absence from the campaign trail while he vacations in Hawaii. He will return to the spotlight over the next few weeks upon naming his vice presidential running mate and accepting his party's nomination for president at the Democratic national convention, and both events have typically been associated with a bounce in support for a presidential candidate.

On Thursday, the Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns announced an agreement to put her name into nomination for president at the convention. Given that the race has been tight for the past few days, it is unlikely this announcement is related to any change in Obama's support.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109564/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Tied-44.aspx

[Joanne98]

1. More proof negative campaigning works.

[Teaser]

3. nah

it's just proof that random sampling produces random fluctuations in poll numbers.

Obama will be back up again in two more days when the big McCain sample from yesterday rolls off the average.

[Renew Deal]

14. It's proof that no campaigning works.

Obama has been off the trail for a week.

[darius15]

2. One word; Convention

Obama will take a nice lead after that.

[Bucky]

12. and then the Republicans will get a big bounce out of theirs

Kerry got a bounce. Hell, Dukakis got a convention bounce. Since then, of course, convention viewership is way way down.

Obama needs a great convention. He also needs to work on his camera presense. He's excellent at big speeches and in-person appearances. I think over the TV his delivery can seem a little lackluster and not the alpha male solidity that conveys strength and trustability.

[mvd]

4. It could very well be a blip

Look at undecideds.

[FrenchieCat]

5. Doesn't prove a damn thing, other than Corporate America knows how to manipulate

Americans.

OBAMA

MCCAIN

[tridim]

6. Is that picture really McCain at the beach?

Because I've been hearing that this is a real picture of mccain in his underwear getting ready for a swim. Does Google image search agree? Does Jerome Corsi believe it's a real picture of McCain in saggy briefs? It's on the Internet so it must be true.

Links to click:
John McCain at the beach
Google John McCain Swimming at the beach
?a=1">Picture of John McCain in a Speedo

[theoldman]

7. I told you guys not to post my picture.

I guess I picked up a little sand when sitting on the beach. LOL

[depakid]

10. If true, wouldn't that be a worry?

[Honu one]

13. Oh, the gems you find hidden in threads

:rofl:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. OH. My. God. That's hysterical Frenchie ! You have GOT to

post that on it's own. Hey, just title the post "butt crack" and you'll get a zillion hits.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. This was to be expected.

They are, in national terms, two very unsatisfying candidates and it was always baked in the cake that undecideds would be unusually high.

If history is any guide, however, when folks are forced to chose late Obama should have an edge.

The only problem with such high-numbers of undecideds (which is now probably higher than 1992, which is impressive) is that it makes the race sensitive to "news" and flaps and smears. But when push comes to shove Obama will prevail.

[Bucky]

9. Here's a chart of polling trends (all polls) that backs up that point

McCain is stifled, but the attacks on Obama are getting traction, it seems.

His campaign needs some instant gravitas infusion. I suggest taking some Biden on and acting like a president right now, where the Georgia crisis is concerned. His official statement the other day looked pretty bland. This is an ideal environment for some solid market-tested soundbites. Failing to send out stronger soundbites is a serious mistake.

[uponit7771]

11. This happens at the end of EVERY week since Obama took the nomination. These polls start big in...

...Obama's favor and end up by the end of every week smaller for his numbers.

People don't look at the MsM over the weekend, just the weekday.

[w4rma]

15. Loyal Democrats start their vacations towards the end of the week and aren't available for calls? nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. So it means when people hear more about him, he goes

ahead? McPain was all over the news all week. Yikes, you'd think that would make him dip !

[DemocracyInaction]

16. Is Gallup still "weighting" polls?

I remember discussions in '04. Apparently Gallup weighs towards republicans (like interviewing more registered repubs then dems) based on models that say that repubs are much more likely to go to the polls them dems. However, obviously, this year's primary would have just blown that out of the water and made it very flawed to use. Does anyone know if they are still sticking to that old model because that would tell us a lot about how accurate Gallup is.

[GoesTo11]

17. Maybe all the coverage of McCain being "presidential" about Georgia

gave him a bump. I heard some RW station where they were playing selective clips so McCain didn't sound confused and Obama sounded wishy washy. War war war! I think this is real - 3 days of random sampling is a bit of a trend. Not in my mind a long term concern though. The real action will be in October and the last week of the race and election day.

[my3boyz]

18. Gramps still can't get above 44. nt

[SteppingRazor]

19. Meh. He'll get off vacation, start camapigning again, and things'll be different. n/t

[Franks Wild Years]

20. Obama's lead on Intrade...

...consistently fills me with optimism.

See this:

"Whether or not you want to invest in current events, Intrade is a fascinating exercise in the power of the marketplace to anticipate the future. Its trading data have proven to be remarkably accurate. For instance, Intrade never wavered in predicting that George W. Bush would be reelected in 2004, and it called 33 out of 34 Senate races as well (it failed in Alaska, where contract volume was minimal). It also correctly signaled that Cardinal Ratzinger would be chosen as the new Pope, arguably the most secret vote on the planet. “Unlike a poll which asks, ‘Who would you vote for?’ we are essentially asking, ‘Who do you think will win?’ and then, ‘Who will you put money on to win?’ ” says Delaney. “Markets have an incredible ability to suck out information. They can be wrong—but not as much as opinion polls.”"

[JoshDem]

21. True but Obama has dropped from 67% to 60.7% on Intrade

Obama a better buy today!

[Franks Wild Years]

26. Well...

..he dropped 5 - 6% a fortnight or so ago when McCain's ads got into full gear but since then he's stabilised and remained steady between 58 - 61%. At the moment, I'd say it's looking pretty good and for people to unload their Obama stock en masse would take something big, I feel.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

22. Man - Get back from VACATION NOW. He was up 6 just a couple

days ago ! How can idiot McDummy be doing this??

[MoonRiver]

25. I keep hearing echos,

from 2004.