Speculation Grows that Obama Will Announce His VP on Wednesday

[Ichingcarpenter]

Both Jeff Greenfield of CBS News and Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic have confirmed that the Obama campaign is sending staff for campaign event in Richmond, VA next Thursday, but the twist is that Obama’s schedule has been announced for every day next week, except Wednesday.

Obama will be in Nevada on Sunday, and then he will head to Florida on Monday and Tuesday. However, nothing is known about Wednesday, leading to speculation that he will make the announcement about his running mate that day. A Wednesday announcement would make sense, as it would allow his running mate to hit the campaign trail for a few days before heading to Denver for the convention.

I don’t think the Obama team would put the announcement on the schedule, so it is doubtful that Thursday in Virginia is anything more than a campaign event, but Governor Tim Kaine does live and work in the city, so it is possible that he may be the choice. My gut tells me that the Obama campaign would not do something as obvious as to schedule a day of campaigning in his running mate’s home state. Plus, why would Kaine need to campaign there?

[BlooInBloo]

1. Aaah... the echo-chamber wind-tunnel "speculation grows" effect....

It's a thing of beauty.

[Ichingcarpenter]

4. I forgot to put the link in, but I agree Wednesday

is the most likely day because of the schedule. Who its gonna be
I really don't know right now but I think it will surprise everyone.

[David Dunham]

2. kaine would now be a mistake because he has no foreign policy experience

Too many Americans will regard Kaine as not ready to step in as president as needed. Biden would be a better pick.

[grantcart]

5. experience like Bill Clinton had?

Frankly as someone who has worked in the diplomatic area and lived overseas I would prefer somebody like Kaine who has actually lived overseas and learned a second language fluently than somebody that has studied it at the paper level, assuming of course that both have the same general level of intelligence.

McCain has tons of experience as has Cheney and Rumsfield, but none of them have actually lived with oridinary people, learned their language and understood the basic differences of how they view the world.

[DarthDem]

11. Clinton . . .

. . . did a pretty good job with foreign policy, no? Or I suppose that's your point. Gore did have foreign policy experience to add to that ticket, though.

[grantcart]

17. that is my point - he also lived overseas for a time

Gore's foreign policy experience? I value his time as a photo journalist in Vietnam over whatever paper experience he had.

[DarthDem]

18. Fair Enough

Are we ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that Kaine speaks fluent Spanish?? If so, then ya know what, I'm warming to him, because he could help in Colorado and put McSame on defense in VA. The election at this point is all about those two states and Ohio. And maybe Nevada.

[LSparkle]

15. Amen! Joe Biden has 10 YEARS MORE D.C. EXPERIENCE than Bomb Bomb!

I just checked Wikipedia and Biden was first elected to the
Senate in 1972, while Bomb Bomb didn't land in the House of
Reps untili 1982.

If the public is supposedly so "at home" with the idea of
McLame at the heldm, then having Joe Biden at Obama's side
should to A LONG WAY toward reassuring voters who worry Barack
isn't "ready for prime time."

[Thrill]

3. wooooohoooooo I love the Tim Kaine pick!!

[DefenseLawyer]

6. Webb from outta nowhere.

Man, I love this stuff.

[Skink]

7. Nope Hurricaine fay making landfall Wed.

[Dinger]

8. Tim Kaine Is Good, But He's Not Wes Clark Good

Sorry.

[Ichingcarpenter]

9. Well, Wes Clark is in the DC area

on that day also. Now, the other thing is to see on where
the other perspectives VPs will be that day.

[tekisui]

10. Obama/Clark!!!

[darius15]

13. really? do you have a link?

[MasonJar]

12. If it is not Clinton, then I hope it is Wes Clark. That should mollify many

of Hill's supporters plus provide one extraordinary person on the team. I cannot see how what he said about McCain is a disqualifier since it is true and fair. The MSM made it a big deal.

[David__77]

14. Too soon!

I hope this isn't true.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

16. Good timing.

We know we're very closing because they've been hyping up the text messaging business.

It won't be the end of the week, because they'll want the weekend news cycle.

And they want enough time before the convention for all the buzz to build.

Btw, Clark's hitting the cable news stations this weekend.

[Ichingcarpenter]

19. Timing is everything on a political campaign

The Obama campaign has handled that matter masterfully.
Wednesday will be the day and like I said earlier, start looking
where everyone on the VP list will be on Wednesday.

[Ichingcarpenter]

20. More about Timing

TIMING OF POLITICAL MESSAGES INFLUENCES VOTER PREFERENCES, U OF M RESEARCHER FINDS

MINNEAPOLIS, MN. (August 14, 2008) – In political campaigns, timing is almost everything. Candidates communicate with voters over a long period of time before voters actually vote. What candidates say to these voters is, of course, important, but it turns out that when they say it also influences voter preferences.

When Senator Barack Obama began his presidential campaign, his rhetoric emphasized abstract concepts such as hope, change, and judgment. In contrast, Senator Hillary Clinton and other candidates frequently presented detailed, concrete plans on a host of topics ranging from the Iraq War to the economy and health care reform. Political commentators criticized Senator Obama for his lack of specifics, yet voters continued to respond to his message.

Why Senator Obama’s reliance on lofty rhetoric has succeeded thus far is a puzzle addressed in the paper “It’s Time to Vote: The Effect of Matching Message Orientation and Temporal Frame on Political Persuasion,” forthcoming in the Journal of Consumer Research. The research, co-authored by the U of M’s Akshay Rao, Hakkyun Kim (Concordia), and Angela Lee (The Kellogg School), demonstrates that the timing and content of political messages affects voters, particularly swing voters.

Rao offers this illustration to characterize the research: “Imagine taking a vacation to Cancun six months from now. You are probably thinking about beaches, sunsets, and other abstract information. On the other hand, if you were going to Cancun tomorrow, you would be thinking about taxi cabs and boarding passes – concrete concerns – making you more likely to process information about speedy check-in or the phone number of a taxi.” He continues, “Similarly, a voter facing a choice in the distant future is less interested in particular plans and policies and is more persuaded by broad, abstract ideas. It is only as the election gets closer that voters start paying attention to concrete details of the candidate’s positions. In essence, when the choice is far away, a voter is more likely to think in abstract terms, but as the choice approaches, the voter puts more weight on the details.”

The researchers demonstrate this temporal effect in a series of studies and observe that it is relatively uninformed voters who are most subject to this effect. “What this finding implies is that the people who typically decide elections – voters in the middle – are most susceptible to this type of persuasion. Political novices tend to be more persuaded by abstract messages when the choice is far off, and by concrete messages when the choice is imminent,” says Rao. While the experiments focused on political contexts, the underlying argument applies equally well to other contexts, such as deciding which college to attend, which automobile to purchase, or where to live when one retires.

The authors advise – particularly in this time of long campaign cycles and multiple media channels – that campaigns think strategically about the timing of messages targeted toward select markets, such as swing voters. Rao observes, “The fit of the right message with the right voter at the right time has never been more important to the outcome of a race.”


http://www.carlsonschool.umn.edu/Page8916.aspx

[book_worm]

21. Hmm, Thursday in Richmond, VA--does that point to Kaine?

[Ichingcarpenter]

22. Well to me it points to someone from the east coast.

I would see what the others on the VP list are doing that day.

[Top Cat]

23. I think it will be Wednesday also

2 weeks of airtime

[Ichingcarpenter]

26. Yes, two weeks is a good amount of time for the media.

Not too much and not too little

[knixphan]

24. I must haz Biden!

OBAMA/BIDEN is a bumper-sticker with POWER!

[mookiemike]

25. Here is hoping

the selection is announced on Wednesday and he chooses Wesley Clark. The man has character and an intellect, not to mention military credibility.

Obama/Clark

That sounds like a winning combination!

[PCIntern]

27. Where is Al Gore going to be on Wednesday? n/t

[Robbins]

28. VP

I believe the VP will be Biden.His low profile,and the theme of wedsday at the convention point
to this.I believe Obama made his decsion during the vacation.Obama and Biden like each other.
Obama stood up for Biden during the debates.Some think Biden speaking on wedsday says he won't be
the candiate.I say of course Biden Is speaking.After Bill Clinton soeaks he will recieve the
Vice Presidential nomination.


And as a former ST Louis resident I believe Biden will eather be debating Lieberman or Romney In
the VP debate there.