Richard Roeper calls the race for Kerry (Also a state by state breakdown)

[wndycty]

Head backs up the heart in pro-Kerry prediction

August 25, 2004

BY RICHARD ROEPER SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

The difference between wishful thinking and a prediction is the difference between your heart and your head. I predict the Bears will win five or six games this year. I'd like to see them go 10-6 and make the playoffs, but that's wishful thinking. Take a look at their schedule; it's nasty.

Ever since John Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination, I've been saying I hope he wins. But let's say there's a presidential roulette table, and instead of red or black you could put your money on red (Republican) or blue (Democrat). For weeks, I would have put my chips on red.

It's not that I thought President Bush was infallible. If Bush were running against, say, Bill Clinton, he wouldn't have a chance. I just wasn't getting the sense that Kerry fever was sweeping the nation. I wasn't even sure it was sweeping the Kerry family.

Now, though, with the election 10 weeks away, I'm moving my stacks of chips from red to blue.

And I'm keeping them there.
-snip-
http://www.suntimes.com/output/roeper/cst-nws-roep25.html

[thedecline]

1. Very uplifting article

Thanks for posting it. Damn I hope Roeper is right about this.

[Spinzonner]

2. This is all virtually worthless

Winning a poll doesn't put you in office. Just ask Thomas Dewey.

Sometimes winning an election doesn't even. Just ask Al Gore.

You have to win the actual election and that depends on the voters who actually go to the polls and vote for your candidate. And, obviously, it depends the success with which the opponent does the same.

So what really counts is getting every dedicated Democrat to the polls on Election Day and other Kerry supporters.

And it means discouraging responsible Republicans from voting for the man who has destroyed what honor was left in their party. It would be nice if they voted for our man but we can settle for them not voting for Shrub.

So stop obsessing on what this or that poll says yesterday, today, or tomorrow because if their evaluations and assumptions of 'likely voters' are a bit wrong then their predictions will be to.

We cannot avoid to succumb to overconfidence based on a bunch of polls.

[DRoseDARs]

3. As a Nevadan...

"And then we'll be looking at Nevada as the state that made the difference for Kerry."

Wouldn't that be grand. The state Bush wanted to make a nuke dump is the state that dumps his ass into the curbside trashbin Wednesday morning, November 3rd. :toast:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. The polls there look good for Kerry

Nevadans seem to have had enough Bushit.

[DaveinMD]

9. Zogby's

Ohio polls put Bush ahead, but other recent polls put Kerry ahead. Its definitely a pickem state.

[skooooo]

5. what he says about Ohio..

...Seems to contradict what Zogby and other pollsters are saying, doesn't it?

[Tarheelhombre]

6. Is this guy the movie critic?

[wndycty]

7. Yes on TV, but as a newspaper columnist he covers everything. . .

. . .he has been writing about current events and politics a lot longer than he has been reviewing movies on TV.

[LynnTheDem]

8. To bad bush doesn't read

Coz this line would have him frothing at the mouth and throwing kniptions... :D


"If Bush were running against, say, Bill Clinton, he wouldn't have a chance."