Steve Clemons/Washington Notes: Not Going to be Bayh, Daschle or Clark

[Douglas Carpenter]

Now I must first say that just last week Mr. Clemons seemed pretty convinced that it was going to be Sen. Bayh. Steve Clemons certainly relishes his role of reporting insider stories and tips.. By his own admission, he frequently gets it right and sometimes gets it wrong.:

Latest on the Dem VP Race: Not Going to be Bayh, Daschle or Clark

link: http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/08/latest_on_the_d/

"I won't post sources on this, so any folks are welcome to consider this my fanciful speculation.

But sources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.

I have been informed that the decision has been made, and I don't know who that person is.

I also have been told that Tom Daschle is not the running mate. I also happen to know that it is not Wesley Clark.

I just received word that it is not Senator Jack Reed either, though Obama thought very highly of him.

In my estimation, that leaves Joseph Biden, Chuck Hagel, and Sibelius. I don't think that Tim Kaine would be the nominee given the elevation of Mark Warner as the keynote speaker at the Dem convention.

As much as I would love Hagel to be the nominee, I don't think that will happen. . .and while I could be wrong here, I have heard next to nothing about Sibelius.

That leaves Joe Biden. Could Warner be a head fake -- and it's Tim Kaine after all? Not sure. . .circumstantial evidence points to Biden.

Of all places where Biden is now, he's in Georgia -- the one in the tangle with Russia.

One well placed political expert just told me on the phone that we may all be wrong and that Obama could come out with something completely unexpected -- a Hillary Clinton or even (and this shocked me) Al Gore or John Kerry. I don't have any info on such surprising possibilities as these.

We may know Monday or Tuesday.

I won't defend or go into my sources. Discount this as you like.

-- Steve Clemons

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I have a hard time believing Obama would select or not select his candidate based on the nets.

Sorry, but most people here don't know what the fuck they're talking about...myself included.

[writes3000]

2. I think there was a major, major clue today. Thinking strategically...

I don't think Obama's VP was on any of the talk shows today.

Think about it. Why take a chance on a major blunder today which would taint the announcement? No way.

In fact, I think Obama's VP probably hasn't been on the talk circuit for awhile.

I have a guess but I know it's not a popular one.

[jobycom]

5. We all know it's going to be Clinton.

Unless it's someone else, maybe.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Could be Richardson.

Unless Obama decides to pick another.

[jobycom]

14. Absolutely! Could we get Vegas odds on that?

:rofl:

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I don't think it's Clinton.

It very well could be Richardson or Sam Nunn.

[writes3000]

10. I've promised to support the ticket but...

I personally hope it's not the latter.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I don't know...I could be reading into things.

But I thought it was telling Obama brought Nunn's name up at the religious forum last night. I think he was the only "possible" VP candidate mentioned.

[karynnj]

20. Not being on the talk circuit recently rules out nearly all of them

mentioned - Biden, Bayh, Kerry, Gore, Clark have all been out there. HRC hasn't, but there was the entire campaign. are you thinking Sebelius?

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. I can believe that Sen. Obama's people could surmise that the selection of an enthusiastic

cheerleader for the Iraq War could become a big question mark that the media could raise and call into question the whole "better judgment" issue. I could imagine that his people might have interpreted reaction on the Internet as a sign that the issue could find its way into the mainstream media and create a political liability.

Internet political blogs and forums have an influence to the extent that a given story starts to get mainstream media traction, which in this case was beginning to happen.

[karynnj]

19. I do think that his staff may monitor the nets

Not that they would take stuff here completely at face value, but it is a reasonable way for each candidate to get a fast list of potential vulnerabilities. As each name surfaces, there is a burst of posts by people who do not like that candidate or just prefer another. It would be wise to look at these and then evaluate how real they are and whether those criticisms could resonate.

It is also smart to monitor it to hear what a segment of the political spectrum - not a representative one by any means - but a politically aware and active one. There is, of course, no name that when suggested has led to 200 posts expressing great hope that that person is chosen. I do think there is a tendency to pick the VP to the right of you to move the ticket to the center - unless the candidate himself was very near the right end of the party - as LBJ, Carter and Gore were. JFK, Dukakis, Kerry were all pushed to balance liberal Massachusetts with a conservative Southern. I would expect that everyone mentioned here except Kerry, is substantially to the right of Obama - and none are well liked here, with the exception of Biden, who has support.

Look at the convention speakers - with the exception of the tribute to Kennedy, where is the liberal, progressive side of the party? Where is Gore, who speaking of energy and global warming would excite the left? Reid is doing the energy speech.

What this signals to me is that Obama has 2 groups he wants to win over with the convention - any still disgruntled Clinton people and people in the center.

[CakeGrrl]

3. '...we may all be wrong' - that's all you need to know. More guessing! n/t

[jobycom]

4. In other words "I must submit some story, so here it is."

He basically said it won't be most of the people we all know it won't be anyway, but it could be any of them or a bunch of other people, or someone else, even.

This writing thing is easier than I thought.

[gateley]

6. It won't be Hagel. That's about all I can say with certainty. nt

[Arnold Judas Rimmer]

12. I'll take this as good news

Bayh would have sucked ass. I don't think Daschle was ever a serious contender, and while Clark would be a great choice, his own people seem to be indicating he's out of the running.

So net message here: It's not Bayh.

Thank God for that!!!

Biden - His trip to Georgia seems more like a "Secretary of State audition" to me, which is exactly where I see him ending up in the Administration. Putting Mr. Bankruptcy Bill on the ticket in the middle of the current economic calamity would not be a good idea.

Richardson is looking better all the time for VP, regardless of what these media whores and know it all bloggers claim.

[cliffordu]

13. I'll bet he picks

A Democrat.

Sorry, couldn't help it.

[dkf]

15. Kos poster says its between Gephardt & Biden.

Gephardt? :(

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/18/22059/9620/932/569607

[Drunken Irishman]

16. I have a friend who works for the RNC.

He's quite a bit older than me, but we met through our love of Utah football. I do not like his politics, but outside of that, we get along. Anyway, he's pretty high up in the California Republican Party and we were talking about potential vice presidents for both candidates. He's Mormon and wants McCain to pick Romney, but he told me the candidate he and many Republicans feared most was Gephardt, because they said Gephardt would deliver Missouri and Ohio. I said Obama would not pick Gephardt and all he said was, "I hope".

We'll see.

[ErinBerin84]

17. Oh, Clemons. It is not going to be Hagel. And probably not Sebelius

What is he thinking?

[Douglas Carpenter]

26. yes and that is EXACTLY what Mr. Clemons says in this article:

quote: As much as I would love Hagel to be the nominee, I don't think that will happen. . .and while I could be wrong here, I have heard next to nothing about Sibelius.

[MiniMe]

18. He left Richardson out completely

I think Biden would make a fine VP choice, but Richardson deserves a mention at a minimum.

[Douglas Carpenter]

21. one kick for the next shift

[Spazito]

22. Hagel? Clemons wants a republican as VP in a Democratic administration?

Huh, interesting.


Given Mr. Clemons defensive tone re "speculation", he must have received quite a bit of feedback on his Wes Clark "tidbit" and none of it to his liking. Go figure.

[Douglas Carpenter]

23. I suspect he would view Obama/Hagel as a united front against foreign policy neoconservatism

Hagel is a Reagonite Conservative-Republican on most domestic issues. On foreign policy Hagel would be a traditional conservative, "national interest foreign policy hawk" like a cross between Brzezinski, Webb or Scowcroft or Baker and thus a sworn enemy of the foreign policy neoconservatives that now dominate the Republican Party and have more than just a little bit of influence within the Democratic Party.

Mr. Clemons recognizes as he states clearly that Obama/Hagel is simply not going to happen. But I do have to agree with him that in the big picture of things, foreign policy neoconservatism is the most dangerous element within the American body politic and perhaps and admittedly arguably, the gravest threat America and the world has faced in decades.

[Spazito]

24. It seems to me there are died in the wool Democrats that could fill that role....

take on, if you will, the dangers of foreign policy neoconservatism which, I agree, is the gravest threat on a global level.

I think Hagel is a very honorable man, over all, but he is a republican who would bring nothing to the administration that a Democrat could not equally offer without the concern of split loyalties a republican in a Democratic administration might well have.

[RayOfHope]

25. Hey Clemons. Its SEBELIUS, not SIBELIUS. Great proofreading n/t