New Siena Poll: Obama's lead in New York slipping

[highplainsdem]

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/8362

Obama slipping in New York

August 18, 2008 at 9:30 am by Irene Jay Liu

Barack Obama is losing ground in New York, according to the Siena poll released today.

Obama leads Republican John McCain 47-39 percent, which is down from 50-37 percent in July and 51-33 percent in June. Obama has a 54-34 percent favorable rating and McCain has a 49-41 percent rating.

Obama’s lead has fallen from 18 points in June to 8 points today.

This follows national trends showing Obama’s lead narrowing, and some swing states in a statistical dead heat.

So far, this hasn’t translated into McCain setting up shop in the Empire State - his New York campaign HQ is in New Jersey.

-snip-

Another story on this New York poll, which also polled on NY's economic situation and the governor's approval rating:

http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/2008/08/18/poll-ny-in-trouble-paterson-ok/

Poll: NY In Trouble, Paterson OK

As the state Legislature returns to session tomorrow for an emergency economic session, a Siena Poll today finds that 48 percent of New Yorkers agree with Gov. Paterson that the state’s economic situation is poor.

Another 37 percent say it’s fair, while only 13 percent describe it as good.

“New Yorkers see a very bleak fiscal picture for the state, with 85 percent of voters describing the state’s fiscal condition as poor or fair,” said Steven Greenberg, Siena poll spokesman. “And 65 percent of voters, including more than three-quarters of upstaters, agree with the Governor that this is the worst fiscal situation the state has faced in more than three decades.”

-snip-

Paterson’s favorable rating was 59 percent, up from 57 percent in July.

“Despite the state’s fiscal picture – or maybe because of the way he’s talking to voters about it – David Paterson has the best favorable and job performance ratings with voters he’s ever had,” Greenberg said.

In the presidential race, Barack Obama has slipped some, the poll found. Obama leads Republican John McCain in New York 47 percent to 39 percent, down from 50-37 percent in July and 51-33 percent in June.

-snip-

Any New Yorkers here who have any idea what's happening with this poll? I don't understand Paterson's favorable rating going up, while support for Obama slips. I'd expect him to be helped by voter concern about the economy, too. That usually helps Dems.

[PM7nj]

1. I have never even heard of this polling firm.

Are they NY-specific?

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. It's not a polling firm...it's an institute at Siena College

which is a Franciscan college outside Albany (that's why this appeared in the Albany Times-Union). I suspect that Obama's numbers DO look like that, if all of downstate New York is ignored. Which is to ssay, I think Obama will even take Upstate (more traditionally conservative) by 48-37. NYC and environs will bump that win up to something like 58%. It's going to be a McCain bloodbath in New York State, but that's been obvious since the git go. It's a winner take all system, in any case.

[Johonny]

15. I went to Siena College

It's 90 % freeper so I think it's safe to ignore any poll produced there.

[grantcart]

21. wrong place

[BklynChick]

2. I'm a NYer and never heard of that poll

Check out these latest Rasmussen and Quinnipac polls (8/4) and he's doing just fine.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/new-york.html

[Muttocracy]

3. Dem with cell phones only, or on vacation during poll? nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Yeah, and Bush was gonna win New Jersey, twice

Even giving New York a second thought is really the ultimate in concern trolling. I mean, it's totally ridiculous.

[Bucky]

6. I do not like your facts because they conflict with my inflated sense of sanctimony.

Therefor I now denounce you with your so called scientific research as a mere concern troll.

Quit your whining and start smirking like the rest of us.

[JoFerret]

7. What does Marist say?

It's more trustworthy.

[highplainsdem]

12. There haven't been any Marist polls for months. Link to their site:

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

[JoFerret]

18. Thanks hpd

In spite of Bill O'Reilly being an alum (irrelevant factoid alert) Lee Miringoff and the Marist poll work hard to try and get it accurate.

[Renew Deal]

8. The chances of NY being close are slim.

Obama is light years ahead here.

[book_worm]

9. I'm not the slightest worried about NY. Obama will end up winning it by 20-points.

[monomach]

10. Never head of that pollster

That's probably the problem.

[highplainsdem]

11. I'm not familiar with them but had heard of them. If you google

the keywords

siena poll

you get several hundred thousand results.

[FrenchieCat]

13. Thanks. I was looking for some bad news, no matter how small.

This will help demoralize me and wonder what is wrong with the Obama campaign 78 days before the election. Good news travels fast, while one can always count on the concerns of highplainsdem to dig up something to worry about. What would we do without this? Be positive and energized? Couldn't have that. It would be like burying our heads in the sand, right? :sarcasm:

[highplainsdem]

17. FrenchieCat, I post polls whether they're good or bad news. I was the first person here to post

the Gallup poll when Obama had a 9-point lead, for instance. Polls vary.

OTOH, you're entirely predictable in your tedious, childish bullying of people who'd supported Clinton in the primaries. I'm not impressed by pathetic little Internet bullies. Go try to bully someone else.

[FrenchieCat]

19. Unfortunately for you, you would be hard pressed to find me

bullying a Hillary supporter on this site because they were a Hillary supporter....and my comments here have nothing to do with whom you supported during the primaries.

[specterderrida]

25. Well, Frenchie. I am sure you can find some good news.

[ProSense]

14. Here:

The new Siena poll isn't averaged in yet, but they certainly have a lot of wavering undecideds:

Siena 7/17-29/08
McCain 26%
Obama 44%
Barr 2%
Nader 3%
Undecided 25%

Siena 7/7-10/08
McCain 37%
Obama 50 %
Undecided 13 %

[darius15]

16. NEWSFLASH!!!!!

New York is not in play.

[JackORoses]

20. stubborn is as stubborn does.

Are you insinuating Obama needs the help of a certain someone to win NY?

Well, he doesn't. NY is in the bag.

[JoFerret]

28. I think the poster

was posting a post.

And a certain person - haunts your imagination a little too much.

[grantcart]

22. can you do a little more research and see if a poll is even remotely tied

basic trends?

[Hippo_Tron]

23. I hope McCrazy sees this and decides to umm waste money in New York

[AtomicKitten]

24. Thanks for your concern.

Gotta get in those digs before Obama accepts the nomination, right? The
Clintons thank you for promoting their HRC2012 campaign already in progress.

[scheming daemons]

26. This OP is highplainsdem's 346th attempt to point out that Obama needs Clinton as VP

Obama will win NY no matter who is VP is, highplainsdem.


GIVE. IT. UP.

[Willo]

27. I'd say they are worthless - 627 people polled over 3 days

627 registered voters divided into a lot of categories
Poll details: http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=18783



******************
Political Tracking
Each month, SRI conducts theSiena New York Poll, a “snapshot” poll (approximately three days duration) of registered voters throughout New York State (620 respondents, for a margin of error of +3.9 percentage points). A series of "trends" questions tracks the favorability and re-elect numbers of various statewide elected officials and announced or likely candidates for statewide office. The Poll also asks timely issues questions of the day.
http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=746

*****************
Times Union / NewsChannel 13 / Siena Capital Region Poll Series
The (Albany) Times Union and WNYT/NewsChannel 13 have collaborated with Siena Research Institute to provide a series of public opinion surveys of Capital Region residents that will be released every few weeks throughout the year. The news organizations jointly shape the poll in consultation with SRI.

Visit the Times Union’s website to review a collection of articles developed from this research.

For more information, contact SRI at 518-783-2901 or 518-783-2512, or write to us at [e-mail].
http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=744

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[A-Schwarzenegger]

29. LOFL, have you ever missed posting one single "Obama is Slipping" poll?

Crack me up, high.