Discouraging Projection

[dtotire]

Discouraging projection. EV-com has Obama 275, McCain 250. They have Virginia tied with 13 EV. They have Indiana with 11 EV for Obama. Indiana does not look like a sure thing. If we lose Indiana, McCain will become President. Virginia can't be counted on.



http://www.electoral-vote.com

[Cronus Protagonist]

1. *yawn*

More selling of FUD.

:popcorn:

[scheming daemons]

2. Thanks for your "concern"

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. .

[cliffordu]

30. Yep.

[H2O Man]

3. Gosh.

Maybe we should just quit while we're ahead.

[Eric J in MN]

4. I donated to the Ohio Democratic Party.

www.ohiodems.org

[JackORoses]

5. All aboard the great ship Concernity for a cruise through Bullshit Bay!

[jefferson_dem]

It's always...

the "profile-less"...who are most concerned.

[SurfingAtWork]

17. ...

:rofl:

Seriously. That line made me start bustin up. I'm totally going to plagarize it elsewhere. :evilgrin:

[JackORoses]

28. did you say plagiarism? McAnus would be proud

;)

[ginnyinWI]

6. Wait until we see what the veep pick does to the math. n/t

[Occam Bandage]

7. Oh no! I'm discouraged and concerned!

:scared:

[SoonerPride]

8. Obama wins in a landslide.

Does that projection make you feel better?

It should.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. You do know it's only August, right?

I can guarantee you the poll numbers will look vastly different in November.

[Eric J in MN]

11. Unfortunately, Democratic presidential candidates usually do worse in November...

...than in August.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Not really.

Kerry did, but Gore was down in the dumps in August of 2000.

[FARAFIELD]

10. This is the problem with following each poll as it comes out

Different polls different methodolgy. If you have an adversion to polling info (you used the term "discouragin") I suggest you do one of the following.
1) Follow a "poll of the polls" That is an overall weighted poll that factors in each polls relative correctness (this can be ascertained by how they performed in the primaries and 06 and 04 Elections). There are several places to do that. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ would be one, they always list a composite on the top. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls would be another as they weight their average as well.


OR

2) Pick one Poll (EV.com wouldnt suffice as they use unweighted composites). Gallup, Pew, Rassmussen, etc. and stick to that. Read that poll and only that poll.

The problem with the media is that if PEW comes out and OBAMA is up by three, and then a POLL from Gallup comes out and he is UP by 6 they will report that "HE WENT UP THREE POINTS IN A DAY!" when in fact both polls are different. Same thing if OBAMA is up in Gallup by 5 then Pew Says the next day OBAMA is only up by one. (OH MY GOD OBAMA is down 4 points in a dAY!!!!).

Ive found that Gallup and Rass are good for daily rolling polls, and that 538 is good for national averages. This will help us sleep better and not have to put up with "swings" between different polls.

[FrenchieCat]

12. Oh well, that's it then..... MCCain wins!....oh wait, Obama is still at 275!

oh wait, Obama is still at 275! Whew! For a moment there I thought I was supposed to get "discouraged".

Glad I figure out how to read this post before it was too late and I became demoralized now till November 4th.

Thank you for all you do! :patriot:

[Overseas]

14. The EV count changes fairly often. Hang in there. /nt

[WeDidIt]

15. You concern is appreciated. n/t

[rug]

18. Check out this day in 2004:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Aug18.html

[scheming daemons]

19. Every election is different.... at this time in 1992, Clinton was neck and neck with GHWB and Perot

[lojasmo]

20. Your concern...it concerns me.

Buck up.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

21. yes, I'd rather be trailing in electoral votes. with less resources. and a far worse ground game.

[my3boyz]

22. Real clear politics looks awful but pollster.com looks better.

It was always going to tighten up. THe last two elections showed us how divided this country is. Half of the people vote Dem and half Republican. The independents are the swing voters and a lot of them like McCain for some unknown reason.........

[JuniperLea]

23. If you are concerned that Obama is ahead...

I think you are in the wrong place:)

[Debi]

24. Ha

:spray:

Thank you for that giggle!

[depakid]

25. Obama's NOT going to win Indiana and doesn't need to

[endthewar]

26. Barely Dem = 25. Barely GOP = 85.

Says it all.

[27inCali]

27. Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico

means we don't need either Virginia, Ohio or Indiana.

Iowa is solid Obama.
Colorado was close until McCain signaled wanting to renegotiate the 1922 water deal that protects Colorado water from Californian over reach.
Bill Richardson pretty much ties up NM.

the big worries are PA or MI. Those are too close for comfort. But cosider all the red states that McCain needs that are close or where he's actually behind: NV, MT, MI, IN, VA, OH, NC,

so we should be worried again why?

[DefenseLawyer]

29. I hate to say this...

I am a BIG Obama supporter, and as much as I wish it weren't the case, and as much as it PAINS me to even say this...

Trolls are people too!

[Monty__]

31. Can we at least wait until well after the convention

to start panicking? How many points was Dukakis up after the convention in '88? 17%?