Rasmussen, 8/19: Obama 45%, McCain 42% (with leaners, Obama 47%, McCain 45%)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

, August 19, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).

-snip-

While the race for the White House remains stable, there is movement beneath the surface. The number of voters who say McCain is too old for the job has declined while the number who say Obama is too inexperienced has moved up a bit. Voters are now evenly divided as to whether Obama has enough experience for the job (Premium Members can review trends and demographic crosstabs).

-snip-

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters now rate the economy as the top issue of Election 2008, down from 40% yesterday and 45% a week ago. This comes as the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows consumer confidence growing to the highest levels of the past five months.

National security concerns are the top priority for 25%, up from 21% a week ago. This week’s data (see demographic crosstabs) shows confidence in the War on Terror remains near the highest levels of the past four years. Data released yesterday shows that 50% of Americans support a UN peacekeeping force to address the situation between Russia and Georgia, but only 22% want U.S. troops to be part of a multi-national force.

It remains to be seen whether the shift to relatively more importance for national security issues is a temporary blip or the beginning of a lasting change in the race. Those who name the economy as the top issue favor Obama by a two-to-one margin. Those who see national security as most important favor McCain by an even wider margin. Four years ago, the priorities were reversed with 41% naming National Security issues as most important while 26% named economic issues.

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters now believe Obama is likely to win the White House in November. That’s down from 54% in June but little changed from a month ago. Twenty-eight percent (28%) expect McCain to win and 22% say it’s too close to call. Nine percent (9%) expect an Obama landslide victory while 4% say McCain will win big.

-snip-

[Bucky]

1. Why can't Obama break 48%?

.

Sorry. Couldn't resist.
(Occam Bandage made me do this)

.

[Fluffdaddy]

2. No candidate will break 50% this year.

48 to 49 is the best we can hope for

[Bucky]

3. I got five bucks that says it's Obama 52%, McCain 46%, crazy people combined 2%

I won't just bet my five dollars; I'm betting my child's future on this.

[Fluffdaddy]

4. I think Barr is good for 3% and Nader for 1 % .

[Bucky]

11. How is Nader gonna break 1%? He's gotta split the left fringe with the less annoying McKinney

I think I was being generous giving the vocal fringes as much as 2% collectively. Barr will certain score more votes than McKinney & Nader combined.

[mikekohr]

6. My Prediction

Obama 51.7%
McCain 46.8%
other 1.5%

49.25% is the winning mark in this election with regards to popular vote.

Now for what counts: Obama: 309 electoral votes
McCain: 230 ev

+6 seats in the Senate for the Democrat Party
+15-22 seats in the house for the good guys

mike kohr

[Carrieyazel]

7. Can't see any way Obama gets near 52% of the vote this year.

Your House and Senate predictions are definitely right on target.

[SuperTrouper]

14. He has not closed the deal yet

with the American Public :sarcasm:

[Thrill]

5. For all the panic. And Democrats out there criticizing. Obama is slowly building the lead

back up. No bounce for McCain after his so called 'great performance'

[MasonJar]

8. If Obama would get out there and remind people of the ruinous economy

--in sound bites, he would sweep this away. He also needs to remind voters that McCain is a hothead, who would be dangerous on national security. All he has to do is use McCain's own sound bites. If it stays this close the Rovians will steal it again, along with several congressional seats. Obama won the primary; now it is up to him to do what it takes.

[FrenchieCat]

9. I hate polling with a passion, and I hate them more everyday....especially this far out.

I detest that many here hang their hats on them,
and hate that some folks post them like it is their
solemn duty as a public service.

If one rises and falls by the polls,
one can be manipulated by the polls.

Terrible idea.

Attitude is 1/2 of everything,
and these polls tend to set the tone,
which is more than they should have the power to do
especially in August for a November election.

Just sayin'!

[Labors of Hercules]

10. polls no cell phones = polls bullshit. nt.

[mvd]

12. Amazing how the two tracking polls have been going..

opposite lately. Gallup is now 45%-44% Obama. :shrug:

[anonymous171]

13. Keep up the attacks on McSame.

Drive up his negatives before the debates.