Obama Will Win the Popular Vote in November By Between 1-2 Million Votes.

[David Zephyr]

Al Gore won the popular vote by a 600,00 margin in 2000. Al's margin over George Bush here in California was around 1 million.

Because Barack Obama will win his blue states by large margins and because he is polling so very well in many red states where Gore and Kerry did poorly, Obama's margin of victory looks to me like it will easily be upward of 1 million...and possibly as high as 2 million.

And here comes the big million dollar question that no one wants to address:

Should John McCain win an electoral college victory because of the idiotic and undemocratic "winner take all" regulation, how will Americans react to that this time around?

I am stunned that no one in the corporate media wants to even touch this. Why is that?

There will be only two possibilities on election night in November. ONLY TWO. And the GOP already knows this:

1.) Barack Obama will win the popular vote by a margin of 1-2 million votes nationwide and will carry the electoral college.

2.) Barack Obama will win the popular vote by a margin of 1-2 million votes nationwide and will "lose" the electoral college.

John McCain and his campaign have figured this out long ago: that they are going to be on the receiving end of a tidal wave in November and lose the national popular vote by the largest margin in American history. And, if that is true, then it also follows that they already have their post-election night strategy for explaining how they did not steal the election.

Make no mistake: Barack Obama is going to win the popular vote by a stunning margin. That is simply a fact. Look at the individual state polls and see how well Barack is doing even in red states and he is going to be the recipient of the most popular votes in the history of national elections. Ever.

It is simply bullshit that our candidate still must be put through the maze of this electoral college crap where a solid block of red states in the South can defy the national will of the people.

We need to begin now addressing how undemocratic the electoral college is more on the blogs. It is the only way that the GOP can "win". They already know it. The American people need to know it, too. That's our job.

The question that we need to begin framing early on (that means now) is: Why are John McCain and the Republican Party already conceding the popular vote to Obama and focusing on stealing the election in the electoral college?

And this time, I don't think that the will of the people would be quiet and submissive should yet another election be stolen...especially with such a large margin of victory by Obama. Do you?


Discuss.

[scheming daemons]

1. Actually.... 1million is not that large of a margin. Bush won by 3 million in 2004.

I think Obama will win the popular vote by 3 to 4 million.... and the EV by mroe than 80.

[David Zephyr]

2. I was being too conservative so as not to look too crazy, but you are right.

I should have had the moxy to post the higher number. I believe that Obama's margin alone here in California could be 2 million.

[book_worm]

3. I think he will do better than that.

Obama will win California by better than one million.
Obama will win New York by better than one million
Obama will win Illinois by better than 500,000 votes
Obama will win Iowa and NM which went very narrowly for Gore in 2000 and which Kerry lost in '04
Obama will do better in Washington and Oregon than Kerry or Gore did.
Obama will do as well or better than Gore or Kerry in the other blue states (MA, NJ, RI, CT, etc)
Obama is already doing better than Gore or Kerry in such red states as Indiana, Montana, Alaska,and Virginia, there is a good chance he could win one or more of these states.
Obama is running better than Gore or Kerry in the south, where the GOP really needs to win big to pile up popular votes: Obama is doing better and will do better thanks to an increased and high turnout among black voters in states like VA, NC, SC, GA and MS.
Finally there is a 50-50 chance for Obama to take states like CO and NV both of which went to Bush in previous election.

I think that Obama will ultimately win the popular vote by 3-5 million votes.

[David Zephyr]

6. And McCain's crowd knows this, too. So we need to start speaking out about this.

As I posted above, book_worm, you are probably correct that the margin will be far greater than what I conservatively put in the OP.

But I write this to say this: We know it and that means that the GOP already know it, too. Who doesn't know it? The American people. The media is not even touching this. Why is that?

We need to begin educating the American people that McCain has no intention of winning the popular vote. That's news worthy.

Thanks for your post.

[Bok_Tukalo]

4. And about a 100,000 swing in Ohio and Kerry wins 2004

The Electoral College is what it is and there may be grumbling but that is about it.

[Median Democrat]

5. Will He Be The First Democrat To Win A Majority Of The Popular Vote Since 1976?

People often forget the Jimmy Carter is the last Democrat to win a majority of the popular vote, and he did so by only 0.1% in 1976 against Ford who had pardoned Nixon. Bill Clinton never won a majority, even in 1996 as an incumbent against a relatively weak Robert Dole. In light of the historical trends, I think this will be a very tough election where the Democrats will really need a strong grassroots effort to overcome the Fox News/ABC factor.

[gristy]

7. fivethirtyeight.com predicts a popular vote advantage of 0.9% for Obama

If turnout is 140 million (it was 122,294,978 in 2004), then that would translate to 1.26 million votes - in line with your guess.

[elocs]

8. I think Obama will win big because many true traditionally conservative Republicans

simply want to see their party purged of the neocons. I have a good friend who bleeds Republican and he will not vote for McCain and I believe there are millions more like him.

[flamingdem]

9. The problem then is election machine and ballot fraud that will be used in close races nt