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Obama Still Holds A STRONG Electoral Vote Lead (and compared to 2004, He's WAY Ahead)

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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 02:00 PM
Original message
Obama Still Holds A STRONG Electoral Vote Lead (and compared to 2004, He's WAY Ahead)
From Electoral-Vote.com:



The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.

If you count just Strong and Weak states (not the "barely" states), Obama is almost to magic number 270 and has been that way for most of the summer. Despite McCain's onslaught of Attack Ads and spending, Obama has held strong.

Now, in 2004, the Swift-boating had already occurred. What happened in mid-August then? The same graph (Strongs/Weaks) tells the story:



It's pretty clear the swift-boating took Kerry out and he could never recover.

That isn't going to happen with Obama.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 02:01 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks for your "concern"..... oh.... wait......

;-)
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. LOL!!
:rofl:
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polichick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
2. That's Beeeauuuuutiful!
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DarthDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 02:13 PM
Response to Original message
3. Nicely Done!

Thanks. Very interesting not only for what happened to Kerry in 2004 but for this year.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 08:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. There are two big variables that can throw such calculations, and all
political analysis, off, and they are these:

1. All the votes are counted mainly by three rightwing Bushite electronic voting corporations, using 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, with virtually no audit/recount controls. About 40% of the voting systems in the U.S. are 100% non-transparent and unverifiable, and extremely vulnerable to insider hacking. The other 60% are about 99% non-transparent (and verifiable only in the unusual circumstance of a recount), and are also vulnerable to insider hacking. In the 60% that have some kind of paper ballot backup, some states count ZERO percent of the ballots on an automatic basis (audit) and even the best states count only 1% (completely inadequate in a 'TRADE SECRET' code system*). This just about makes all political prognostication a crap shoot. It doesn't matter what the polls say--whether they're fiddled or not. Rightwing corporations have the power to undetectably and secretly reverse the outcome of any election, and there is fuckall we can do about it, if they do this to us again.

2. Given the control of our election outcomes by a handful of rightwing billionaire CEOs and financiers, what makes us think that the pre-election polls are not being fiddled--by the five rightwing billionaire CEOs who control all news and opinion in this country--to conform to the results that Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia are going to produce? Rove, I think, was quite adept (if that is the right word) at pre-writing corporate news narratives for pre-determined events. Why should we assume that the 'Swift-boaters' were responsible for Kerry's loss, rather than that Kerry's loss was pre-determined by Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia, and the 'Swift-boaters' were paid to get out there and enact the pre-written narrative? (I think also that anti-gay initiatives on ballots may have been another P.R. strategy to 'explain' Bush-Cheney's win. Remember, after the election, Cheney was asked what accounted for their win, and he replied, "Our get out the vote campaign in the churches." But there is no evidence--none--for a successful Puke GOTV "in the churches." In fact, the Democratic grass roots blew the Pukes away in new voter registration nearly 60/40, in 2004.) (What happened to all those votes?)

I am certainly glad to see this chart that is positive for Obama. But I don't want us to live in a fairy-tale world in which we are oblivious to the extremely dangerous monsters lurking over the pretty, flower-covered hills. Those monsters are real.

----------------


*(Some experts say that we need a MINIMUM 10% audit (hand-counting of paper ballots) to detect electronic fraud. We aren't even close that MINIMUM, anywhere in the U.S. And, as I said, 40% of the voting systems, plus some systems with paper ballot but no audit, CANNOT detect electronic fraud at all. That is certainly sufficient to undetectably reverse the election, but fraud would most likely be smoothly spread around to many more systems (including systems with a paper ballot, cuz a paper ballot doesn't mean dick, if it's not counted).
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Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-19-08 09:30 PM
Response to Original message
5. Take a look at this
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

It's RCP and it's only one map but it shows McCain taking the lead 274-264 no tossups.

Perhaps you can see why many of us are worried.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Kerry Had an EV lead as well, but all his EVs were barely or weak.
EV strength is what matters my friend and Obama has it, McCain does not.
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JoshDem Donating Member (147 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 07:49 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. RealClerar Politics Shows McCain Ahead in the Electoral Vote
This is where they take every toss-up state and put it into one of the two buckets.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. thank you for your concern. Not! If it's not even.com or 538, then I could care less
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 07:55 AM
Response to Original message
9. My one worry
Obama is never over the magic number in that chart.
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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. you're worried when McCain hasn't broken 225? WTF?
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Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. McCain now leads at ev.com too 264-261
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Aug20.html

I suggest there is reason for concern, real concern.
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