OK. His lead has shrunk. We know! He went on vacation for a week and the numbers tightened

[Motown_Johnny]

And Russia gave McGaffe some prime talking points at just the worst time.



The polls will move again once the Conventions start.

The polls will move again after the Conventions end.

The polls will move again after the first debate.

No poll that excludes 3rd party candidates are accurate, McGaffe's support is soft and Barr can suck up 3% to 5% of his vote in some states.




Chill

[darius15]

1. I agree that polls will shift in Obama's favour

once people start realizing that third party candidates hurt McCain and that conventions and maybe debates will help Obama.

But the only states Barr will get 3 % of the vote (let alone 5) is Georgia and MAYBE South Carolina.

[Alexander]

2. He really picked the perfect time to go on vacation, if you think about it.

Right before his VP choice and the Democratic Convention, where he'll get a huge bounce anyway.

And the worst polls show the race tied right now. I'd rather be in our position than McCain's, that's for sure.

[anonymous171]

3. This is good. Obama tends to focus more when he isn't leading by much.

[rockymountaindem]

4. Why did he go on vacation?

I don't get it. McCain isn't going on vacation, so neither should Obama. Ceding the airwaves to the opposition for a week is not a good call.

[Alexander]

5. Maybe he's exhausted and needs a break?

He's only human.

Plus I imagine he needed a place to decide on his VP choice.

[tblue]

14. And I doubt he was only sunbathing and drinking pina coladas.

I bet he was working his tail off. I'm just hoping he DID take some time to kick back and enjoy his lovely family.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. He had a longer Primary... He figured the Olympics would have muted any news anyways.. He always

visits his grandmother in the summer... He needed time to plan the end game



He deserved a break


But the numbers did tighten a bit

[Barack_America]

11. That wasn't a vacation. That was a prolonged "See Where I Come From" photo-op. nt

[Cha]

6. I'm not

frettin' it but then I don't sweat every little m$m manipulatin' poll, either.

[Speck Tater]

7. Lead shrunk?

With a poll margin of error around 3% a move of 3% is meaningless. It's still within the MOE.

[geek tragedy]

12. He dropped 9 points in the LA Times poll.

It's undeniable--he's trending down and McCain is trending up.

He had a PITIFUL summer.

[darius15]

15. The last LA Times Poll

had Obama up 11. That was probably way off, as the highest lead Obama ever had over McCain after he clinched the nomination was 6-7 points. He is still up 2. He dropped 9 points because the last LA Times poll that had him up 11 was an "outlier"

[geek tragedy]

9. His lead didn't shrink. It's disappeared.

Behind in Colorado now, barely ahead in MUST WIN Minnesota.

He's going downhill, and fast. Had I known he would run this kind of general election campaign, I would have supported Hillary.

[Motown_Johnny]

13. Nothing without 3rd party candidates is accurate.

[darius15]

17. Sigh....

Listen, the election is gonna tilt back and forth many times before November. We don't have to be so extreme. Whenever Obama is doing well in the polls, many of us here are quick to say "Obama is gonna win big! No Way McCain will win!" and now when Obama and McCain are close, everyone is taking it to the other, negative extreme.

Kerry and Gore win Minnesota by 2 or 3 points. The fact Obama was doing so well there back in June & July was a testament to him. Now he has fallen back to where a generic Dem would be in Minnesota. Calm down. And about Colorado, don't forget that Obama is having the convention there, which will give him a higher bounce there than the rest of the country.

[geek tragedy]

19. How many months of completely inept messaging

and Dukakism should we watch before we start to question Axelrod & Co?

[Motown_Johnny]

21. Inept Messaging???? I disagree

He has done a good job defining himself. Against all the Muslim smears, and the Rev. Wright smears and the not patriotic smears, and the racial smears...


He is doing a great job


Honestly, Chill

[geek tragedy]

22. The proof is in the numbers.

And the numbers--state and national--show that Obama's campaign strategy SUCKS.

[Motown_Johnny]

23. Those numbers show he is doing better than his opponent..

You do know that a 4# lead nationaly is big and 8% is huge?


Clinton only won by 9% against Dole and Dole ran a terrible campaign.



Chill

[darius15]

24. What numbers are you referring to?

Because the numbers that I see show Obama leading by a slight but noticeable margin ever since he clinched the nomination. Daily tracking polls are like puzzle pieces, put them together and you get the big picture. Ever since Obama clinched the nomination, McCain has never led in Gallup Daily tracking, and has led for a span of 2 days by 1 point in Rasmussen (at the height of the celebrity ad)

The numbers in the state polls show Obama with more than 1 clear path to 270 EV's, while McCain can't win without Ohio (Tie), Florida (Leaning McCain), and either Michigan (Leaning Obama) or PA (Leaning Obama). Obama is doing great in very red states like Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Alaska, North Carolina, and Virginia. He is also doing very well in blue states, and in terms of swing states, Obama leads in quite a few (the midwest, new mexico, the rust belt, new hampshire) and is only losing 2 swing states to McCain (Florida, Nevada).

You tell me who is winning.

[Gabi Hayes]

25. read the internals from the LA Times poll. everything they cited

on TV, from Experience, to PATRIOTISM, to favorability, to Russia, to national security, have gone down around ten points

that's BAD

they're defining him in negative terms, just as they did Kerry. and those numbers are hard to change

the only way Obama is going to fight their filthy campaign is to start being as tough on McCain as they've been on him

he doesn't have to lie or impugn McCain's patriotism, ambition, etc., either.

he's got bring McCain's numbers down as much as they've done to him.

it's that simple

sad, but true

when you wrestle with pigs, you're going to get muddied up

[darius15]

26. yeah, but that's ONE poll

don't put too much stock in one poll. And despite all of Obama's numbers going down, HE'S STILL AHEAD. In the end, it doesn't matter if he's up by 11 or up by 2. If he wins the popular vote by 2 percent on election day, he wins.

[Motown_Johnny]

20. and don't forget McGaffe's recent comments about water for the lower basin states

Colorado should be a win, even if the polls don't show it right now


and Barr will get some conservative votes there too

[CitizenPatriot]

10. he still leads in electoral

and remember when they "poll" they don't call people who don't have land lines. hello? the youth vote, the under 35 vote?

GOBAMA

[tblue]

16. That's the only 'poll' that matters.

The rest is just the MSM trying to create a story and/or controversy. Otherwise, who would watch?

[CitizenPatriot]

18. that's the way they work

bunch of hyenas:-)