IA POLL: Obama 50, McCrypt 43

[jefferson_dem]

Aug. 19, 2008

Iowans favor Obama in new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll

Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain in the battleground state of Iowa among both registered and likely voters, according to a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today.

Among registered voters, Obama holds a 48 percent to 42.9 percent lead when "leaners" are factored in. Among those judged as "likely registered voters," Obama's lead is 49.5 percent to 43.1 percent, with 7.4 percent undecided.

Obama's lead is thus somewhat comfortable in Iowa compared to recent national polls showing the race tightening to as few as 3 percentage points. (See August Pew poll at http://people-press.org/report/443/presidential-race-draws-even.)

In this month's Hawkeye Poll, only 38.6 percent of McCain voters say they strongly support him, while 64.3 percent of Obama voters are strong supporters. Obama leads or is tied in nearly every demographic group examined, except Evangelical Christians, where McCain is up 65.2 percent to 31.6 percent.

"The race in Iowa, while relatively close, appears to be moving in Obama's direction," said Hawkeye Poll Director David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science at the UI. "Most importantly for Obama, his supporters are much more likely to say they 'strongly support' him, which makes them much more likely to turn out on Election Day and much more likely to talk to friends and neighbors, volunteer in the campaign, and do the kinds of things that win elections. Typically, those who are less supportive are also less motivated to vote, no matter how much they say ahead of time that they'll turn out to vote."

The Hawkeye Poll was conducted by phone Aug. 4-13. The sample size is 709 registered voters, (margin of error 3.7 percent) and 617 likely voters (margin of error 3.9 percent). Likely voters are defined as registered voters who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. Reported results are weighted to match the sex, age and race of the registered Iowa voter population.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2008/august/081908hawkeye_poll.html

[mucifer]

1. Obama campaign goal:

5,000 volunteers (including me) bused in from IL to go door to door the weekend before the election.

[baldguy]

2. Landslide