Did anyone watch Chuck Todd's analysis of the WSJ/NBC poll on Hardball?

[Pirate Smile]

The reason it is close is because of Clinton voters:

"The Clinton factor

Yet perhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama’s inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton’s supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else.

What’s more, those who backed Clinton in the primaries — but aren’t supporting Obama right now — tend to view McCain in a better light than Obama and have more confidence in McCain’s ability to be commander-in-chief.

For these reasons, Hart believes that Clinton’s speech on the Tuesday night of the Democratic convention will be a significant event. “The Democratic convention is more than a coronation,” he says. “It is an event where the words of Hillary Clinton are probably going to be exceptionally important.”

Hart adds, “The Hillary Clinton campaign may be over, but the Clinton factor remains an important part of the election.”

It’s also worth noting that while Obama leads McCain by three points in the poll, Clinton edges the Republican by six points in a hypothetical match up, 49 to 43 percent. But she remains a polarizing figure: 49 percent say they don’t want to see her as president someday, and 42 percent view her favorably versus 41 percent who see her in a negative light. "

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26314990/


They hate Bush but both Clinton's, whom they trust, told them for six months that Obama wasn't ready.

It was very interesting. At least we know they are with Obama on the issues, hate Bush, etc. They will be watching the convention.

If Bill had been a good guy, or at least quiet, over the past three months then this would be easy.

[Cha]

1. Sounds like they're pushing clintons

on us again.

[JackORoses]

2. that's the MO at this point. they can all shut their traps in the morning

it's going to be so very nice!!

[Pirate Smile]

5. I actually found it somewhat reassuring because these should be Dems. They aren't real Independents.

They are people, like Bill, who need to remember Bill's rule: In the primaries you fall in love, in the general election you fall in line.

I can't believe 50% of Clinton voters aren't voting for Obama. That is insane.

[Cha]

9. Maybe the polls are being manipulated?

AGAIN.

[jerryster]

11. It would be really insane.

There is no way that her supporters can believe that he espouses any of their positions. Can you imagine those supporters' reactions to McCain's policies as President? Would they try to claim that they didn't know what he was going to do? I want to believe they'll come around, but I'm really not sure.

[Cosmocat]

18. Me, too ...

and, I think it might explain why his big post primary bump was at best only 7-8-9 points instead of breaking into the low to mid teens ...

This lends hope for a REAL post convention bump IF the Clinton's do the right thing and GET IN LINE BEHIND BO, no equivicating ... AND, further ... Hill has been campaigning a bit, but if she really hits the trail AND Bill gets into a bit ...

That might break things back into BO's favor more considerably ...

Thinking about it ... BO is STILl fighting both Clintons, McCain the republican party and the main stream media ... He has like four different fronts going at one time ...

IF the Clinton's get into the game ON HIS SIDE ... That might do the trick ...

[Pirate Smile]

20. I know. It is unbelievable how many different factions he has to fight at the same time.

It pisses me off because he has enough bullshit to fight against by being the first African American nominee along with just the standard crap all Dems get hit with during Presidential campaigns.

[mucifer]

3. maybe after the Clintons speak for 2 days at the convention, people will feel more

comfortable with Obama. We will have to wait and see.

[rockymountaindem]

4. Does anybody expect them to get over it?

I don't know what to believe at this point. I met one Hillary supporter while canvassing, but she was definitely on board with Obama at this point. I can't believe what the others are thinking.

[Pirate Smile]

7. It is so irrational I can't believe those numbers (in the WSJ/NBC poll) are accurate.

[rockymountaindem]

13. Believe it

People do plenty of crazy things.

[Thrill]

6. Oh well then we all will be stuck with neocons for another 4 yrs

Hopefully everyone can survive

[DebbieCDC]

8. I am beyond sick of the Clintons and their dramatics

and their surrogates without end, BS and blah blah blah. Just STFU and go away. I never thought the day would come that I'd say that about a Dem president and Dem senator, but that's what it's come down to.

[TheKentuckian]

10. Well, we've got to recover the prodigals

if we can but if they don't show up for us in the polls, then I think they are in for a surprise on who takes the hit. How did we get six or ten million Liebermans in our party?

Obama is actually doing a stunning job if these numbers are accurate, he's attracting significant crossovers and Independents.

[Pirate Smile]

12. More of them must have gotten behind Obama in July and then decided to jump off the

bandwagon. Why? Bill's comments? I don't get it.

[movonne]

that is bull shit...if we were to have hillary on the ticket it would be

a diaster...they would use everything she said about Obama in the primaries..and then there is bill...you saw what he did to her chances....

[Cosmocat]

17. That isn't at all what Dodd was saying ...

IMO ...

He was just analyzing, and I got the sense that his sense was that more than anything these voters just need the Clintons to be REAL about their support for BO, and these voters will come home ...

[highplainsdem]

14. We need a unity ticket. Speeches alone will accomplish very little at this point.

And in retrospect it seems that Obama would have been wise to announce a unity ticket back in June, in Unity NH, instead of assuming that even though the primary race had been very close, most of the voters who preferred Clinton to him would switch allegiance to him.

There are really no good arguments against a unity ticket, and the vast majority of the delegates and superdelegates seem aware of that. And Obama HAS to be aware of their preferences.

It is his choice, of course. He can always decide against a unity ticket.

I hope he won't. I'd like to see us beat McCain.

It’s also worth noting that while Obama leads McCain by three points in the poll, Clinton edges the Republican by six points in a hypothetical match up, 49 to 43 percent.

That's pretty much in line with what Gallup's daily tracking poll was showing the last weeks of the primary race.

[dbonds]

15. A unity ticket - yes - Choose Kucinich to bring back the left.

[Unsane]

19. lol

[Pirate Smile]

16. That match up is crap because Hillary hasn't been being attacked by both Republicans and Democrats

for months on end in paid advertising and by all the Republicans.

If Bill could have acted like a good Democrat over the summer instead of licking his wounds and nursing his ego then it would be much easier to have a unity ticket. I don't see any problem with Hillary. The problem is Bill - and it is huge.