DUers Beware-CNN Gallup Is About To Release A Poll Tomorrow

[DemocratSinceBirth]

It will have questions about the Swift Boat brouhaha as well as the horse race questions...


I wonder what Zogby's polls and the internal Kerry polls are showing....


I'd like to know the net effect of this smear; positive or negative....

[ClintonTyree]

1. Another Outlier?

I'd bet anything on it. What do you think, Dumbya by 4%?

[Warpy]

3. Easily, with a double digit lead in electoral votes

We know better than to listen to them. Let's hope Stupid and Cheney think they're the accurate poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Duno

I'd like to see a host of polls to see the net effect...


IMHO, the Swift Boat Veterans For Bush claims have been debunked and their ties to the * administration exposed....


But I don't claim to have the wisdom to see how this all plays out...

[annxburns]

2. Okay, I am WARNING everybody ...

this will be negative for Kerry. Bush will be leading ... oh let me guess, 54% to Kerry's 44% with nader at 2%. The media will trumpet it and say Kerry has been sunk by swift smears ...

CNN WILL DO THIS! GALLUP WILL DO THIS!

But remember, on the eve of the 2000 election, Gallup had Bush leading by 13 points. So DON"T WORRY.

[DaveinMD]

4. I have a feeling

Kerry's internals show this backfiring on Bush. That is why they are stringing this out to great effect. Gallup will show us trailing by 2-4 points. We are probably leading by 3 points.

[joefree1]

6. Ah, you have a sinking feeling

... blug, blug, blug.


Download the free poster/sign here:
http://ediablo.com/eDiabloGallery.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. That's My Feeling And Hope...

They are polling everyday and if they thought it was hurting them they would put the fire out and not throw gasoline on it....



They sure threw alot of gas on the fire today...

[lancdem]

8. Yes

Meanwhile, the Repukes are trying to kill the story now. Coincidence?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Sure Hope So...

My background is in social science and political science...


We are supposed to be able to understand, explain, and predict behavior but events always flummox me...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. The Gallup Poll Might Not Have Captured The Blowback If One Exists....

I sure hope one exists....

[lancdem]

11. I was wondering that, too

if it will measure any backlash.

[jefferson_dem]

12. I fear it will not be *good*

but i believe it will not be dire.

There are some signs in the just released results from Washington via Strategic Visions. We see a very slight tightening on the head-to-head, with Kerry's lead sliding from 9 to 6 percentage points. But what's most telling are the favorability breakouts, which are often leading indicators. See Kerry taking a pretty substantial hit there -- from a 15 point to a 6 point fav - unfav. Sadly, that's not promising.

The good news is that W is not getting a positive push as a result. In fact, chimp-boy's disapproval number was up 4 in WA. Backlash?!!

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/washington.htm

Same deal in the Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll. Kerry's lead dissipates but W the dolt sticks at 43-44. Only more undecideds, not many will stay with the incumbent.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Fingers crossed. You have to think that any SBVT damage that will be done to the good guy has been done, and we'll see tomorrow.

[lancdem]

13. And since this election will be about Bush and his record

attacking Kerry isn't enough.

Also, notice the question about SBVT asks people if they think the charges are credible and might be true, not if they are true.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Strategic Vision Is A Republican Polling Firm...

And these polls don't include the blowback or counterattack.

[jefferson_dem]

17. Yep, i consider whatever numbers come out of SV to be

like a worst case scenario from our perspective. The WA was in the field until Sunday. The counterattack was starting to gather. A backlash would be so grande...poetic justice!

[MallRat]

18. And that's some pretty expensive gas, too.

:-)

-MR

[Proud2BAmurkin]

15. Polls are lagging indicators by at least a week.

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Bingo....

nt

[rullery]

19. Not to worry about polls

While polls may be somewhat slanted one way or the other, pollsters understand that if they get too far off they will lose credibility and their reputations. So if a poll shows Kerry a little behind Bush, it should only stimulate us to work harder to get people registered to vote, and provide transportation on election day to those who need it. I think the greater danger would be polls that show Kerry well ahead, as that could lead to complacency.

[citoyen]

20. Allegory of the cave -- we've already seen the polls

1) The campaign has internal polls on this
2) We have observed the campaign's behavior

Since the campaign seems to have decided to run with anti-SBVFT right up to the Republican convention I'm guessing the SBVFT are not hurting to much. If they were wouldn't the campaign have taken Bush's tacit offer to move on to the next smear?

The alternative is that Kerry has gone nuts and is defying the polls to prove a point. Not likely. Kerry is nothing if not cautious.