Bush Leads Kerry 49% to 46% in Poll by Los Angeles Times

[papau]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000176&sid=aXBAwxCcLMLc&refer=us_elections

Bush Leads Kerry 49% to 46% in Poll by Los Angeles Times
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush leads Democratic rival John Kerry 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the margin of error, among registered voters in a Los Angeles Times poll.

The poll of 1,597 adults, including 1,352 registered voters, was conducted nationwide from Saturday to Tuesday and has an error margin of 3 percentage points. Last month, Kerry, 60, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, led Bush by 2 percentage points in a Times poll.

When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the race, Bush leads Kerry 47 percent to 44 percent. Nader, 70, was supported by 3 percent.

The poll found that 48 percent of those surveyed had seen advertisements by a group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which accuses Kerry of lying to receive medals for his military service in Vietnam. An additional 20 percent said they had heard of the ads. <snip>

A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 19 states, including Texas and Idaho, with 153 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 12 states, including New York and New Jersey, with 179 electoral votes. In 19 states that have 206 electoral votes, including Ohio and Wisconsin, the most recent polling results are within the margin of error. <snip>

[still_one]

1. BULL

Zogby, Rassmussen, most others do not don't indicate that

[Frodo]

9. Not quite true.

The bulk of polls have shown a small but measurable move over the last two weeks toward Bush.

So? What small bounce we got at the convention is disappearing about as fast as other such bounces. Since there wasn't much of a bounce UP from dead-even there hasn't been much of a move DOWN (back to dead even).

Bush will probably ALSO get a small bounce that will fade a couple weeks after HIS convention and the REAL FUN STARTS.

Rasmussen is not to be relied upon and shows NO movement, and Zogby hasn't given us anything lately. But all the other polls show movement. Don't sweat it.

[papau]

15. Some Key analysis from the LAT - 20% of folks who want change not yet sold

on Kerry

"Those results suggested that a substantial part of the electorate remained open to change. But amid the firefight over Kerry's Vietnam service and uncertainty about his policy plans, the Democrat still has not built a constituency for his candidacy as large as the audience for change in general, the poll suggested. Nearly 1 in 5 voters who say the country needs to change policy direction is not supporting Kerry, according to the poll … .."

"But if Kerry showed relatively few bruises on these questions directly measuring reactions to the veterans' charges against him, indirect measures suggested he had suffered more damage."

"Asked how Kerry's overall military experience would affect their vote, 23% said it made them more likely to vote for him, while 21% said it made them less likely; the remaining 53% said it would make no difference. That has to be a disappointment for the Kerry camp after a Democratic convention last month that placed Kerry's Vietnam service at the top of the marquee."

[rocktivity]

2. Smear Boaters bounce

which will sink now that the Smear-Boaters have been officially discredited.

:headbang:
rocknation

[spotbird]

3. This smear will be replaced by another, and another...

it's not over.

[rocktivity]

4. But Kerry has the advantage now--the public is wise to it

Anything they do now will be just "another" GOP smear.

:headbang:
rocknation

[nagbacalan]

7. Hope so, but we must be relentless in citing the data which discredit

the lies. Every such lie must immediately and aggressively be rebutted. Max Cleland should be our model.

[59millionmorons]

5. I will worry about the polls

Only when Zogby has him down. I assume Gallup will have a poll out today with Kerry down 13 pts.

[9119495]

6. Doesn't matter

EVs count so we just have to pick up 91 in the remaining 19 states and we got it--screw the popular vote.

[gristy]

8. dupe

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=670121

[papau]

14. registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 -deserves to be reelected=NO 49-47

registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3:
"If the November general election for president were being held today and the choices were George W. Bush and Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket, and John Kerry and John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, for whom would you vote: Bush/Cheney or Kerry/Edwards?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Unsure % % %
8/21-24/04 49 46 5
7/17-21/04 46 48 6
"If the November general election for president were being held today and the choices were George W. Bush and Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket, John Kerry and John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo running on an independent ticket, for whom would you vote: Bush/Cheney, Kerry/Edwards or Nader/Camejo?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo Other/Unsure % % % %
8/21-24/04 47 44 3 6
7/17-21/04 44 46 3 7
.

"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected to a second term as president, or not?"
Does Does Not Unsure % % %
8/21-24/04 47 49 4

[Smarmie Doofus]

10. To reverse this the Kerry camp needs to be more sophisticated....

and, frankly, more aggressive in it's langiuage, IMHO. Attempting to refute the smear campaign with logic and reason and... if we haven't figured this out by now, we deserve to lose.

The ten percent or so who are "up for grabs" don't have the political interest or analytical skills to sort through the facts and nuances. They hear things like "his wounds were self-inflicted" or "he threw his medals back at the govt." and that's what they assume to be true.

It's all about simplifying and dumbing down... sad to say. The evidence that this works : Republican trifecta of 2004. They run the executive, judicial and legislative branches of the fed. govt. I call this "monopoly".

Solution: Kerry should be hitting this war service stuff out of the park. Suggested buzz words: "HIDING". Bush is hiding from his sponsorship of the Swift Boat ads in exactlythe same way that this gutless wonder hides from everything else... ie. Vietnam, danger, reponsibility, truth, financial disclosure, etc.

The average undecided voter can relate to this sort of thing. Noone likes a coward, especially a coward who is also a liar.

"MONOPOLY" is another good potential buzz word that the dems ignore. Why? It's counterintuitive for most moderates to accept a one party lock on the 3 branches of govt. Why not expoit this?

The fact that Bush "DOESN"T UNDERSTAND" things that Kerry says is another expoitable area. Most people are not happy with a president with a double digit IQ... I don't care what the pundits say about people wanting to " have a beer" with someone like Bush.

Buzzwords, folks... its about buzzwords and images and it's not about being right morally or correct politically.

Paul

[flpoljunkie]

11. But, 5% undecided voters overwhelmingly negative on crucial indicators!

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll26aug26,1,891368.story?coll=la-home-headlines

One potential bright spot for Kerry: The 5% of voters who said they were undecided were overwhelmingly negative on the direction of the country, the impact of Bush's policies and the decision to invade Iraq.

Those voters were also much more likely than the electorate overall to say Kerry's service in Vietnam "demonstrated qualities America needs in a president." And they were less likely to see Kerry's protests when he returned as a sign of flawed judgment.

That could make them a receptive audience as Kerry fights to regain his balance from the Swift boat veterans' offensive, even as Bush approaches the stage for his convention.

______________________

This 5% undecided voters could make all the difference for JK in November, since there are so very few undecideds. This should be very encouraging to the Kerry campaign.

[snippy]

12. I think Bush was counting on a larger bounce from his Swift Boat ads.

He used the Swift Boat ads to try and create some momentum going into his convention knowing that the more people see of him the more they realize he should not be president. He will be disappointed with the results of this poll.

[charlie105]

13. Well, that assures us that we won't be hearing about any 'new' terror

threats any time soon.