Why are folks going nuts over the LA Times poll?

[WI_DEM]

It is only a three point lead. It is within the margin of error. It was done prior to Kerry's coutnter offensive on Slime-Boaters. All polls if you put them together indicate that the the margin is very close. That Kerry is this close to an incumbent president is actually excellent news and that should be what the media is told. Now, if Bush comes out of his convention with a bounce it will be small and it won't last. Remember this is a marathon. One year ago I was convinced my candidate Howard Dean would be where Kerry is today, but Kerry proved me wrong.

[hadrons]

1. and Kerry stop running ads ....

meanwhile Chimpy spent $50 million on them

2. I think the answer is obvious

:nopity: :tinfoilhat:

[lancdem]

3. Plus, someone here posted numbers about the Smear Vets

showing it apparently had little effect. I think the race has tightened, but the right track-wrong track numbers are still bad for Bush, and incumbents in that position don't win.

[annxburns]

4. Just wait till this afternoon ...

... when you see the wailing and nashing of teeth about the CNN/Gallup poll which ALWAYS has Bush ahead (last time 51% to 47%) - I expect it to show Bush up by 8 to 10 so we can expect a lot of doom and gloom around here for a day or two.

Never mind that the battleground poll - which never favors dems - is now showing Kerry ahead.

About the LA Times poll - does ANYONE believe that 15% of dems are voting for Bush? HEllo?

[Doctor Pedantic]

5. Unreliable

A couple of months ago, the LA Times had Kerry way ahead, and people went nuts. The right wing and most of the media attacked the Times' methodology, and the Times ended up backtracking. As much as I wanted to believe that Times poll, it really was kind of out there and inconsistent with what everything else was showing. My view is that the Times is just doing a crappy job with its polling and has been fairly discredited as a real barometer for what's happening. Bush may or not be ahead, but I take all of the Times polls with a grain of salt.

[Career Prole]

6. I'm verrrrrry suspicious of that poll now...

Some of these numbers just don't make sense.
From the same LA Times poll...
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm



"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected to a second term as president, or not?"

Does 47%
Does Not 49%
Unsure 4%

[fujiyama]

11. I noticed the reelect numbers

and how they didn't really match with the poll itself.

My guess is some undecideds and Nader voters are holding out. The 49 percent for someone new is somewhat similar to Zogby's numbers, which has consistantly stated for months that people want someone new.

[Career Prole]

12. Good then...I don't believe I'll sweat this one too much.

I just hate seeing conservatives smiling.

[PATRICK]

7. The fluidity of polls

remember what you thought BEFORE Kerry took his lead? The really solid polling will begin either after the GOP Convention glow fades or after the the debate. Then it is the irresistible grind of Kerry eating up Bush and GOTV.

These polls are colored(inexplicably to the rational) by mere thought of the candidate stepping up to strut his stuff. Like any McCall's magazine poll that puts the First Lady as the best dressed woman in the nation- regardless- it is soft and almost an act of traditional politeness- which the ritualistic courtiers in the media encourage and orchestrate.

If they get some really big lead out of this sorry show it will be their first major success in campaigning in their history. Anything that works always has blowback for them. More people end up being permanently pissed off about Bush every day and often because of the campaign.

Some big movie star or celeb should stub his toe and upstage Shrub.

[BillZBubb]

8. My answer is this:

Given that Bush* is beyond doubt the worst president we've had in many, many decades both in foreign and domestic policy, this race shouldn't even be close. His incumbency should not be compared to that of other presidents who were at least moderately successful in one area or another. Kerry should be leading by big margins in all but the most biased polls.

The hard core Repug base is about 35%. That would include all the me-first wealthy, the fundies, and the wingnuts. They get another 5% from the merely stupid--ie they recognize Bush*s name and not Kerry's. That leaves 60% ripe for the picking.

Kerry's campaign has not found a way to get all of those. He has never even broken 50% on average. That is very troubling. Rove has done an excellent job in defining Kerry and it is sticking--while Democrats are in denial. And we've been down this same road before too many times.

[WI_DEM]

9. I think you do speak for many people with your response

and I do wish that Kerry had responded to the negative ads earlier.

[jackstraw45]

13. Agreed..many at DU have been in blissful denial

Ready to flame anyone who questioned the course of the Kerry campaign.

Bush WILL get a 4-5 point BOUNCE next week and Kerry will be down by 5-10 points going into September and he will have MILLIONS less to spend than Bush.

It's going to be an uphill battle to November given the DNC's inability to do ANYTHING positive over the last month.

What a disaster. There's no positive spin. This SHOULD be a slam-dunk race right now for Kerry given how poorly things are going in Iraq, sluggish economy, record energy prices going into winter, and a dishonest crook in the white house.

Yet Bush leads Kerry when it comes to honesty BEFORE his convention?

DU Cheerleaders can call me names if you wish but this is BAD.

[fujiyama]

10. Absolutely correct

Kerry has been hurt the last several weeks. The smear boats have been a distraction.

Still Kerry's campaign is far from dead. I can't see many Gore voters being effected so much by this that they'd switch to Bush.

Bush getting 15% of democrats? Independants even? Kerry only getting 3% of republicans -- But Bush only leads by 3 measly points?

It just doesn't make much sense considering in many of the battleground states Kerry leads Bush by at least 5 points among independants.

[K8-EEE]

14. When The Numbers Are Reversed It's Called A "Tie."

But if Bush is on top by no matter how slight a margin he "pulls ahead."

I think these polls are bullshit; they don't poll people who didn't vote last time and I think they will swing it. That's why we have to REGISTER VOTERS!!! AND COLLEGE PEOPLE!