Will there be a bounce?

[nevergiveup]

With Obama's and McCain's VP selections and both conventions being all so close together will there be any bounce in the polls for Obama? The day after Obama gives his acceptance speech McCain will likely announce his VP pick followed in a couple of days by the Republican Love-fest. It takes several days for any event to be reflected in polling and with everything being crunched together it seems to me that all polls for the next 2 weeks are going to be meaningless.

[darius15]

1. Who knows?

My feeling is that the Democrats will get an "afterglow" because while the GOP convention is going on people still would not have forgotten the Dem Convention. Maybe a 1-2 point Obama bounce after both conventions are done.

[Egnever]

2. I think so

The two conventions are not equal. One will be filled with excitement the other with cruelty and lies.

It will be very clear what state the pukes are in and may even help obamas polling.

[LonelyLRLiberal]

10. I don't know.

People are so stupid! The Repukes's convention will be full of fear-mongering about terrorism and bogus claims that their "relief for the rich" policies will help the average person. The average person has no critical thinking skills to apply to their nonsense. Every Democratic convention in the last 20-30 years (or more) have clearly stated the party's "average man" economic themes and philosophies, yet the idiot voting public has fallen for Republican BS like "trickle-down economics" and "no new taxes" and gotten distracted by divisive social issues like gay rights and abortion.

I think we need to work hard to turn out the newly registered Obama voters, get the irrational Hillary voters to see the light, register and turn out African-Americans and Latino voters to make the Dem turnout overcome the pattern of voter stupidity.

[Egnever]

12. you are right there is no accounting for peoples stupidity.

could go either way. The pukes though have to trot out bush and cheney and that ain't going to help them win over many people this go around.

[flamingdem]

20. What he/she said! nt

[1corona4u]

3. I think there will be....

I think people underestimate how many people actually liked/wanted Joe, before the other candidates, and what his influence will be in this campaign.

[eshfemme]

4. It depends-- how close are the conventions to the debates?

[last1standing]

5. Let's see what happens at the conventions.

The conventions are dynamic events and there's no way to tell what will happen until they're over.

[AlinPA]

6. We hope so, but there may be a hit from Clinton supporters upset about Biden going to McCain.

[FrenchieCat]

7. It depends on the media, like it always does.

Since most of what the media dishes out, we swallow, they are in the driver's seat.

Thus far, they are showing McCain's ads for free during a time that should be reserved for Democrats and their upcoming conventions. They are reading McCain talking points as often as possible, when they are not showing the ads.

Our Corporate media run the show, and to a certain extent, we allow it. We post what they write and say, while we watch them in anticipation thinking that they will one day say good things about our candidate and/or his running mate. We are being hosed.....and the saddest thing about it, is that we know it and continue to play their game. So if they don't want a bounce, there won't be one.

[AndyTiedye]

18. You Are Correct About the Influence of the Media Over Us, But Not Our Ability to Influence Them

Millions of people HAVE turned them off. It shows in the ratings. They don't care. They are pushing the agenda of their parent corporations, however unpopular it may be, and they always will.

GE makes vastly more money off of war than they do off of NBC. Therefore NBC will push war and the war candidates, no matter how much it hurts their ratings.
Same for the rest, more or less.

[FrenchieCat]

22. Aye!

[saltpoint]

8. I bet there will be from both the Biden selection and moving

up through the Denver convention.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. I predict a net gain of 7-8% for Obama when both conventions shake out.

That is, going int the first debates (Sept. 23rd?) after the RNC when both VPs and conventions have run their polling course Obama will be about 7-8% (net) up in the Gallup daily tracker, versus today.

Today is 45%-45%, so I expect something like Obama 50% McCain 42% (That's with 2% fewer undecided than today. The conventions should decide at least a few undecideds)

[LonelyLRLiberal]

11. We'd better have a brilliant convention and crush McMansion and his VP in the debates.

Obama, IMHO, needs to try to get away from his intellectual-sounding rhetoric and emphasize specifics in people's lives. Plus, he needs to come up with a new way to state his change theme and some catchy phrase to characterize McBush as the out-of-touch, corrupt senile old coot he is.

[AndyTiedye]

13. We Shouldn't Really Expect One

I'll take any bounce we can get, but people will be thinking more about Labor Day weekend, and then the Repiggies have their convention and they also get a bounce from the MSM's 9/11 scarefest every year.

Those who watch will likely be treated to more coverage of "protestors" (however few they may actually be) than of the Democratic Convention itself.
They will present the image of a divided party to the nation and the world, no matter what the reality is.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

16. High undecideds suggest a big bounce for both conventions

There's a big segment of the population that is uncommitted or soft-committed.

Given that and the unusual closeness of the two conventions and that both VPs will be picked on convention eve I expect the most unusual two weeks of polling in history, with crazy swings.

But I could be wrong.

[Bucky]

14. Why isn't there a bouncy icon in this thread?

There, fixed it :bounce:

[A-Schwarzenegger]

15. This thread should be a poll.

[MarjorieG]

17. Do people watch our limited coverage. Now add GOP ads, war room, PUMA nutsiness, media's complicity.

Probably not, but I hope the Dems will get excited to get to work. Election integrity activists are there trying to create buzz, but who knows if connections will be made.

[my3boyz]

19. No. McCain campaigning is attacking throughout the convention. Also,

McCain is going to announce his VP the next day. Then their convention starts. So I really don't expect a bump. I just hope McCain does not get once since his convention is last.

[KharmaTrain]

21. State Polls Are The Ones That Matter

And, yes, I expect there to be bounces in some key states...partially due to the Convention, partially due to the selection of Biden and the gaffes and over-the-top bullshit of Camp Gramps. Many of the states Obama leads in, I see those increasing...especially in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as upticks in Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire...putting Gramps in a bigger hole than he is right now. There will also be a "bump" for gramps...but I only see that in states where he's already doing well...his turn to the hard right is now starting to catch up with him.

Of course the corporate media will continue to spew national polls that are nothing but beauty pageant numbers...or focus on silly side issues that can easily be cherry-picked to fit their lastest meme. Also, without the third party candidates thrown in, it's also an incomplete picture. But, again, the key here is 45%...Gramps needs to exceede this number nationally or he's dead meat.

[GoesTo11]

23. Some, but not historically large

The country has been polarized and dug in for a while now. True, there's dissatisfaction, but still not that many people are up in the air.