Ramussen/ Ohio polls

[my3boyz]

I just noticed something. According to Real Clear Rasmussen has NEVER shown Obama ahead. I remember people getting all upset because he had Obama down by 5 this week. Well, in July he had him down by 10 points!!!!!!!!!! Also, these are one day polls. I think Ohio is much closer than that. I'm not sure if Obama will be able to take it away from the Republicans but you never know.

[still_one]

1. Real Clear Politics, which takes all polls into consideration, says it is a dead heat in Ohio

actually, with Obama ahead by a point

[DLnyc]

2. Yes, rAssmussen generally rides several points to the right of others.

Pollster.com has Ohio (trend) favoring Obama:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/08-oh-pres-ge-mvo.php

Rasmussen polls, as I understand it, strictly by robo-calls. Certainly one would want to adjust one's numbers, it seems to me, to compensate for the fact that people who a) have land lines and b) have time and patience to respond to a robot voice are not necessarily representative of the general populace. Seems to me Rasmussen adjusts their numbers according to a model that comes from THAT SAME BIASED SAMPLE. Looking down the tables at RealClearPolitics, it seems pretty consistent that Ras rides significantly to the right of the average poll.

Also, since many sites report the latest polls, and Ras polls way more frequently than others, all these sites effectively give more weight to Ras's (questionable) numbers.

IMO

[On the Road]

3. The Counter Argument, Of Course

that robocalls eliminate any response bias caused by being contacted by a human pollster.

I don't really know which poll is more reliable. But when all was said and done, Fox turned out to be the most accurate poll in 2004. Obama needs to build a measurable lead.

[Thrill]

4. New Cleveland-Dispatch Poll was released today. McCain leading by 1

Obama beating him with independents. The only reason McCain is leading is because of the Clinton Supporters

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/08/24/copy/POLL24_method.ART0_ART_08-24-08_A10_IIB4CSJ.html?adsec=politics&sid=101