The Daily Widget – Monday, Aug 25 – Obama 315, McCain 223 – Scaring Up the White Male Vote

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. ANALYSIS


(Disclaimer: The broad-brushed, bigoted statements in this post are meant to illustrate how republican strategists use bigotry to label and market to certain voting demographics.)


Call it White Male Drama, or literally scaring up votes among that demographic. They like a good action flick, and the McCain campaign has provided that with their “macho” take on the Russia-Georgia conflict. Add in Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, and they have all the ingredients needed to target many white males: Guns and Boobies.





It’s not surprising that they have done this, since the white male vote helped them win in 2004 and 2000 and males comprise nearly 47% of the electorate.





And they don’t want to stop there, obviously. They’ve been waiting patiently to play the gender card against the party of Women’s Rights. A nice, token female VP pick would do wonders to close the gap for them in the graph below. They’ve already begun targeting Clinton supporters by using Hillary Clinton’s own words as a slam against Obama, so a female VP choice would help them “market” the old John McCain brand even further to women voters.





After all, if they want to take away women’s reproductive rights, it would be well within their Orwellian action plan to use a woman to accomplish this.


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS


Arizona Obama 41, McCain 47 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 43 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 47 (Quinnipiac University, 8/21, +/- 3.0, 1060 LV)
Nevada Obama 41, McCain 47 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
New Mexico Obama 41, McCain 45 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Utah Obama 23, McCain 62 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 45 (Public Policy Polling, 8/22, +/- 3.0, 1036 LV)
Wyoming Obama 25, McCain 62 (Mason-Dixon, 8/15, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. KNR!

Here comes the Convention!

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning!

The numbers have already begun to turn around just on the anticipation of the Convention. I'll be glued to the television all four nights, lol

:donut: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good Morning!

It's sad that some white male voters are swayed so easily.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Or afraid so easily :)

Though they won't admit it.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

(Missed ya tons!)

[fight4my3sons]

7. True...

When I spoke to my dad last night he said, "I don't know what I'm going to do if your guy wins this." He's scared to death.

[agentS]

8. What's he gonna do?

I mean, it's not the end of the world if he or Barr is elected. Now it might be if McCain's elected- if he can remember whatever his fundy advisers tell him to do (like Bomb Iran, Bomb Russia, Bomb Starbucks).

Tell him to relax, roll up his sleeves and get ready to start cleaning up 8 years of Bush failures.

[grannie4peace]

4. looks like women are more decisive than men.

[phrigndumass]

6. And smarter, more insightful, less prone to fearmongering ...

I could go on :)

:hi:

[Demeter]

10. Wow!

Have you any like-minded brothers, cousins, single friends, in the 50ish category?

The 6 Column Table is looking a lot more promising. Let's hope it stays that way.

[phrigndumass]

11. Unfortunately ...

the OP was describing most of the white males in my extended family, lol ... Disagreements are handled with fighting, and boobies are a form of appeasement.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

9. Off to work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. kick!!!!

[bushisanidiot]

13. Thanks for all that info!

:)

[bushisanidiot]

14. kick

.