Should Obama Expect a Big Convention Bounce?

[tannybogus]

Five Reasons to Expect a Large Bump:

1. Obama has twice the usual number of swing voters to reach out to: independents and PUMAs.

2. Enormous amounts of star power in the lineup -- including, of course, Obama himself.

3. Interest -- and ratings -- will be high.

4. McCain comeback story is getting old; media pendulum may be swinging at right time.

5. Hillary's reputation is on the line, and she will rise to the top of her game.

Five Reasons to Expect No Bump, or a Small One:

1. Even small PUMA eruptions will be magnified by the media.

2. Expectations for Obama's speechmaking powers will be exceptionally high.

3. The VP bounce is often part of the convention bounce, but Biden hasn't moved the numbers much so far.

4. McCain team can quickly stomp on any bounce with response ads and veep speculation.

5. Bill's ego is on the line, and he will not be at the top of his game.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

1. Small, ~ 4pts.

[AlinPA]

2. The media will determine that with their "polls". They will decide what the "bounce" will be.

[rinsd]

3. I say 5 pts. And I think he will keep that even after the GOP convention.

[salonghorn70]

4. Maybe 4-5 Points

In modern times there has never been political conventions held back to back. McCain's VP announcement on Friday will cut into the bounce as will the GOP convention starting on Monday. Normally, all the talk this weekend would have been of the Democratic convention. Now, it will be of the GOP VP announcement and the upcoming GOP convention.

[blondeatlast]

5. Only about 5; then it'll narrow during the RNC. It's a tough road ahead. nt