The Daily Widget – Tuesday, Aug 26 – Obama 300, McCain 238 – Projecting Black and Latino Voters

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. ANALYSIS


Obama’s electoral vote projection drops 15 from yesterday as Michigan moves back into the margin of error. The projected popular vote is closer than ever, as Obama’s lead diminishes to 0.4% nationwide. Trading for Indiana dropped almost 13 points since yesterday.

Based on history and recent trends, I am projecting a 10% increase for African American voters this year, and a 15% increase for Hispanic voters, while the white, non-Hispanic vote should increase by 2% in November. The African American vote should comprise 12.14% of the total vote this year.





In hard numbers, it looks like this:
African American – 15,387,233 votes
Hispanic/Latino – 8,783,841 votes
White non-Hispanic – 101,477,047 votes
Asian/Native/Other – 1,072,879 votes
Total 2008 votes – 126,720,999

The graphs below show how each ethnic demographic has been polling nationwide. The minority voters, female voters and young voters may be what puts Obama over the top this year. I’ll share the age demographics tomorrow.











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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS


Colorado Obama 44, McCain 39, Nader 2, Barr 2 (Suffolk University, 8/24, +/- 4.6, 450 LV)
Florida Obama 39, McCain 42 (Kitchens Group/FCC, 8/21, +/- 4.0, 605 LV)
Michigan Obama 43, McCain 41, Nader 3, Barr 1 (EPIC-MRA, 8/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 41, McCain 42, Nader 1, Barr 1 (Columbus Dispatch, 8/21, +/- 2.2, 2102 RV)
Texas Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 8/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[Demeter]

1. If I Had Any Nails I'd Be Biting Them

Good (?) morning, P-man! I'm not happy with the 6th column...they may be small states, but there are too many of them. Such cowards!

Perhaps you ought to include a paragraph of commentary, just to round out the information--your analysis and best guess for the next day or whatever...

[phrigndumass]

3. Texas caused the Strong-McCain jump today

Texas had been teetering around McCain +9.5, and Rasmussen finally pushed it to McCain +10 today. Those 34 electoral votes are one-fourth of the total Strong McCain column.

I really believe Texas isn't being polled correctly this year. It's hard to get an accurate picture of the ethnic groups with only 500 likely voters being sampled, so they revert to historical data for weighting. Rasmussen doesn't even show the crosstabs for race with their 500 LV polls because the margin of error for those demographics would be too high.

Women should turn out by a margin of seven points greater than men this year, and that will definitely help Obama!

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

[Demeter]

11. That's Exactly It!

Perfect little summary of events. Thanks so much!

[tekisui]

2. Morning!

How did you project the AA and Hispanic voter increase?

I look forward to end of the week/next week's numbers with the MCHomes, Biden and Convention playing a part.

[phrigndumass]

4. The increases were projected state by state, thanks to you and everyone who helped :)

All those links to the state data (and some census data) helped me project the demographic turnout for each and every state, and I simply added them up in the spreadsheet to obtain a nationwide count.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good Morning!

I like seeing those increases in Black and Hispanic voters. I don't know why I thought they would look bigger on the pie chart.

:bounce: <--LMD starts school tomorrow and is extra bouncy!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Most kids would be glum, lol

So glad he's looking forward to it! :bounce: :bounce:

The republicans have used several means to keep the pie chart low for Minority and Democratic voters:
- Making it extremely difficult to vote in urban precincts
- Scrubbing the voter rolls
- Anti-immigration and citizenship policies
- Felonizing minorities

It seems they do most of their work before the election season begins to turn the election to their advantage. That's why minority turnout is so important this year!

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

12. afternoon kick

:)

[phrigndumass]

13. ...

[fight4my3sons]

15. ...

ok, not at all what I was expecting...

:rofl:

[livetohike]

7. If Obama can get one or two southern states into his column

this election is over! I'm thinking FL and NC look good and I can't believe GA wouldn't go for Obama in November. The "great migration" south into the Sun Belt in the 90's has to result in some wins for the Dems (I hope).

Thanks, as always phrigndumass.

[phrigndumass]

8. I hadn't thought of the Sun Belt migration :)

Glad you brought that up! That's another reason why the Southwest keeps polling closely, particularly New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Arizona and Texas should be showing signs of that as well.

:donut: Good morning, livetohike! :hi:

[livetohike]

10. Another thing.....

I lived in CA for 13+ years. Many Californians have/are retiring to NV and AZ. Let's turn these states blue too!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

9. Off to work kick

:kick: Have a good day

[JustAnotherGen]

14. Have you ever seen the movie

Celtic Pride?

Nader needs to be the Damon Wayans character. I'll be Dan Akroyd. Who's in with me?

We'll make a documentary: Liberal Pride.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. The trading price on Indiana was idiotic for months

I've mentioned that at least a dozen times. It's not a swing state. The only thing that kept it higher than it should have been was possibility that Bayh could be named VP.

State polls mean nothing in a case like that. That's what bettors realized. Once Bayh was out of the way it was the most predictable thing in the universe that the betting odds on Indiana would avalanche toward McCain. I posted that here and on Pollster.com and on MyDD. I probably should have kept my mouth shut. But I got plenty at trading price average of 60.

There's no way Indiana votes Democratic in a cycle with the Democratic nominee ahead nationally by only a handful of points. The state is double digit red on a presidential level and has 42% self-identified conservatives. Those factors overwhelm state polls.

Regardless, Obama is in good shape. The Republican upside is severely limited in 2008. We should win a tight but solid win in the Bush range from 2004, 2-3 points nationally. That drags the critical swing states along.