Why This Race Is Close (No, Really)

[berni_mccoy]

I keep hearing people ask why this race is so close. How can it be? We've got the change candidate in a year when change is so strongly desired by the American people. It's not because of a MSM-created organization like PUMA. It's not because John McCain is called a 'maverick' by the media or that he appeals to independent voters.

I'll tell you why this race is close: Racism.

If you don't believe me, then listen carefully. Part of my heritage comes from Kentucky and West Virginia. I grew up in Ohio. And I can tell you first hand that racism is alive and well. In fact, it is downright strong. I have members of my family who are life-long Democrats and who will not vote for Obama for this very reason. These are people who despise Bush and who agree that McCain is just like him. But they can not cross this boundary. These are the older members of my family, granted, but I can tell you that there are likely a million Democratic voters like them. I'm doing what I can to help them cross that boundary, but I grow increasingly frustrated as I fail to convince them. There is no logical argument to be made. I have to convince them to overcome something that was engraved in their very hearts as children. These are the people who grew up in the 40s and 50s, before the civil rights movement. They are fundamentally afraid to vote for an African American.

But I have hope, and I will not give up. I may not succeed. But I may not have to (though I will never give up). On the contrary are a significant percentage of Republicans and even Evangelicals who are feeling more comfortable with voting for Obama every day. I have been encouraged to hear Republicans I know seriously considering that option. Obama has the potential to win over Republicans the way that Reagan won over Democrats. The thing that seems to help them is that Obama is not strictly running as a Democrat on a Democratic platform: he's running as an American to work together to solve America's problems.

And, do not forget. Bush still has between 30 and 35% of the population who approve of him. Add on another 10% from people who don't associate McCain with Bush and you have McCain's polling range for the last six months.

This election is a battle for independents. And I believe Obama will win the majority of them. It will be an extremely close popular election, within 1-2% and the winner of the election may very well lose the popular vote. But Obama's team knows this. That is why they are not focused on the popular vote. They are focused on winning as many states as possible, including the smaller western ones where McCain has absolutely zero presence. McCain has seriously underestimated his opponent in this way, assuming that there are red-states in which he does not need to campaign.

My word of advice to you: don't watch the national polls. The media will spin them for McCain no matter what they are (i.e. "Why isn't Obama winning by bigger margin?" or "McCain TAKES THE LEAD" ... with a statistically insignificant margin). Instead, look a the strength of the electoral votes. In this way Obama is very strong and McCain is very weak. The best graph is this one from electoral-vote.com (http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html):


The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.

If you consider the strength of the electoral votes for each candidate, this race isn't even close, while the popular vote margin has remained tight. If you consider the electoral strength graph from 2004 (on the page linked above), you'll see that Kerry had already lost by this point in the election. His campaign was seriously damaged and his base was weakened to a point where he could not recover. That isn't happening this time. And if we keep working the ground game, it won't.

[valerief]

1. It's only close if you believe the bobbleheads on teevee. And if you believe Diebold aka

Premier will steal the votes once again.

Otherwise, when it comes to real people, it's no contest. Most people want Obama. But most people don't count in America.

[jakem]

2. thank you. that was very well expressed.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. Strongly agree. It is the elephant in the room. Two of my good friends,

who are quite open minded but grew up in rural NC - well educated, thoughtful people - are having problems supporting Obama because of just that - it is so deeply ingrained into their beings - they don't even know why they feel this way, but they do - they admitted it to me and said to me "come on, admit it, you are racist as well". They can't even fathom NOT being racist. If anything, this election will shed light on how far we still have to go as a culture.

[Triana]

4. no kidding...

Nathan Johnson, 32, an associate of Gartrell and Adolph, was also arrested Sunday morning. He told authorities that the two men had "planned to kill Barack Obama at his acceptance speech."

"He don't belong in political office. Blacks don't belong in political office. He ought to be shot," Johnson told Maass.

http://cbs4denver.com/investigates/assisination.plot.obama.2.802827.html

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. Yep. Witness BushMcCain's base. Just pathetic. NT

[glowing]

6. Yes and no.. We can make it happen if we work hard and pay attention to the

machines and the "problems".

[Motown_Johnny]

7. show me some info with all the candidates on it and we can talk, Barr pulls support from McCain

[terip64]

8. My mother who is a life long dem will vote for Obama but doesn't like it...

My sister and I have been so frustrated by her. She just comes out and says that it is about race. It is disgusting and all I can say to her that she should be ashamed of herself and that my father, if he were still with us, would be appalled.

I have to have faith that these bigots will vote for Obama in the end. And Obama will show them how wrong they were and maybe we can finally start living up to MLK's dream.

Hope. That's what it's all about for me.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. AMEN!! That's the ONLY reason why. And I feel that the ONLY

reason why Clinton supporters won't support Obama is due to just that: RACISM! It's sad and disgusting but that's the way of the world.

This is why we'll have to reach out to Independents, Republicans, young and new voters. Only TURNOUT can win this election. The numbers have to be big enough to offset the Bigot Vote.

[kwenu]

10. Absolutely true. Some maybe many White people identify with the presidency as a white institution.

As harsh as that sounds, it's true. This applies to a lot of left leaning white people as well. Some of these people will vote for McCain or not at all even though they know the continuation of republican rule under McCain is disasterous. Racism is actually competing with voting in the best interest of self and country (and world quite frankly). If you still don't know who Obama is by now you've been under a rock and don't know there is presidential race going on or you're being condescendingly coy.

We can't ignore the fact that seeing the presidency as a white institution is not a real factor. It is THE major factor for Obama. It is THE major factor for why this race is so close. There is no doubt that Obama knows this and will have to use a strategy that will find what he needs to pull this off. We know this is wrong but we have to get to work to make President Obama a reality because sitting and whining about it isn't going to help.

[truebrit71]

11. It isn't. The "closeness" is being created by the M$M presstitutes...

...so that a) they have something to talk about for the next 70 days, and b) if it's "close" it's easier to steal...

[berni_mccoy]

12. It's close on a popular vote level. Other than that, you're right, it's not. But the MSM ignores

the facts.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. K&R

And would also add as an AA female that right now, I am hoping that those folks who have a problem with pulling that lever (or pushing that touchscreen) for an AA like Obama, then they might consider "ignoring" Obama and "vote for" Biden... He's someone who "looks like" them. Just "pretend" Obama's not there and assuage that fear of an armageddon if he did win. They could even fantasize that Biden was really running the show.

Ironically they fear a man who came out of the body of someone who looks like them and can relate to them. ;) It's sad to have to even suggest this but if it garners a few more votes, the end result will benefit the nation.

[berni_mccoy]

15. I'll try that approach the next time I talk with my relatives.

Thanks.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. It's interesting that

for that brief period last Saturday when the M$M was gushing and patting themselves on the back for "correctly predicting" Biden as the VP choice, they kept repeating the "scrappy kid from Scranton" quip that Biden tossed off in his speech and immediately related to him (culturally). Even Pat Buchannan hesitated attacking him before finally coming up with something to use (albeit political as opposed to personal) to at least be an opposing voice to the effusive initial praise.

And as much as I prayed that the selection wouldn't be Biden (knowing his past foibles and the danger of him as a wildcard like Bill Clinton), after watching him, I actually envisioned him as a natural mentor to someone who is being visciously pummeled on the campaign circuit. Biden remarked about his family's credos of it "not (being) how much you got knocked down, but how quickly you got back up"... And that should signal to those uncomfortable with Obama, that someone like Biden, who has internalized having taken a lickin' but kept on tickin', just might have Obama's back... So not to worry! :)

[ForeignSpectator]

14. This is Europe but still, I have an aunt that said when we talked about Obama :

"I don't know, I can't support this idea, wouldn't a black president neglect the white population?"

There was so much wrong with this comment, didn't know where to start... first thing that came to mind was : well, if that were true, how about all the white presidents before, neglecting the black population, which is "obviously" alright...

The usual story, "an otherwise thoughtful person" you know would come out and say such things and it turns out to be extremely frustrating. It's terrible.

[Kolesar]

16. "He's not my nigger"

That's the uninvited response I got from a "friend" of mine the day before the primary in Ohio. He was against the war from the start and hated bush. But he said if Obama wins, he won't vote in the general election. I was stunned, so I changed the subject.

It's there all right.

Nice post, Berni.

[Kukesa]

18. And that's what I'm hearing in SW Ohio, as well. Sigh. n/t

[Kablooie]

17. The race and racism. There's a joke there somewhere but I don't want to find it.

[Hepburn]

19. Native Ohioan here....

...and, yeah, there is a great deal of racism. I moved from that state about 35 years ago as a teenager, but one does not forget what one sees in childhood.

[geek tragedy]

20. It's 2004 redux.

Is VA really going to have an 8-point swing from 2004? No.

Is Colorado? No.

North Carolina? Please

North Dakota and Montana? I grew up in that area, and they will not vote for Obama over McCain.

It would have been nice if the racism factor was more widely appreciated when determining electability in the primary.

[galaxy21]

22. Some people get what they deserve

Its your so against voting a for person of a different race you'd rather have four more years of the same, then you've made your choice and don't ask me to feel sorry for you when you life continues to suck.


Oh, this reminds me...what if Mccain picks lieberman? These bigots will have to pick between a black man and a Jewish dude? OH NOES! How will these poor voters choose?!

[BumRushDaShow]

25. The one difference with VA

is that the state did elect Doug Wilder as governor. The election was a squeaker, but he won it by portraying himself as a "Virginia native son gentleman" in terms that were clearly understood and related to. VA has been trending blue for quite some time, particularly the NoVA area and around D.C.

Additionally, according to the census, VA is ~20% AA and NC is 22% AA. That is no insignificant amount for a group. Harvey Gantt had a good shot against Helms in NC, but faced an energized electorate voting for a powerful encumbent. Still, with 35% of NC whites having supported Gantt, and if one could get the registered AA turnout up into historic amounts, NC is very much possible.

Additionally, Georgia is 30% AA and Mississippi is 36% AA (and Louisianna used to be 30% AA, but I know many have been scattered into other states due to Katrina). These are extraordinary percentages and really, there is NO EXCUSE for these states to be "red" other than what is obviously AA voter suppression and/or AA voter lethargy, plus conceding these states to the repukes and not even bothering, as a party, to do any groundwork there.

There was an interesting article in the NYT from 2001 that describes the difficulties of what was dubbed the "race ceiling".

[Rosa Luxemburg]

23. Kerry and Bush were close in the 2004 polls too?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[berni_mccoy]

26. According to Zogby. I wouldn't trust Zogby with reading a thermometer.

[elkston]

24. The best we can do is convince some of these people to just stay home. n/t

[kwenu]

27. And make sure we get out the vote for those who put more importance in America's future.

than racial hangups.