The Daily Widget – Fri 8/29 – O-325, M-213 – Colorado Rocks; California Weakens

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


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1. ANALYSIS

I was wondering which polling outfit would be the first to show California weakening. It happens every election season like clockwork, right around Labor Day. Four years ago Survey USA released a whopper of an outlier for California just before Labor Day, showing Kerry leading by only 3 points. No other polling agency all season long had shown California anywhere near that close, and Kerry won California by 9 points.

Public Policy Institute of California shows Obama leading by 9 points in California. In contrast, Rasmussen’s recent California poll had Obama up 13 points. I’m projecting an Obama win in California by 15 points.

The California poll causes the popular vote projection for both candidates to drop today, but Obama’s popular vote drops a bit more than McCain’s because of the PPIC results. However, Obama’s electoral vote projection holds fast at 325 today.

Colorado is one of those states that have been “rocking” back and forth this year, and a partisan-republican pollster shows Colorado rocking back to Obama today, 43 to 40. Here’s a brief polling history of Colorado since June 1:


Idaho, of course, remains strong red with a poll released showing McCain leading by 23 there.


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS


California Obama 48, McCain 39 (Public Policy Institute of CA, 8/19, +/- 3.0, 1047 LV)
Colorado Obama 43, McCain 40 (Hill Research Consultants, 8/24, +/- 4.2, 553 LV)
Idaho Obama 29, McCain 52 (Greg Smith & Associates, 8/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. And, we're OFF!

Obama introduced himself and the Democratic Party to America last night in a memorable and historic event.

As Obama and Biden hit the trail, it's up from here!

That six-column chart is a thing of beauty.:toast:

[phrigndumass]

3. Obama's speech was good enough to hold down any repub convention bounce next week

His speaking skills are a cut above everyone else's! Flawless speech.

:donut: Good morning! :toast:

[Cosmocat]

2. Thanks for doing the widget

I am OBSESSED with the EV sites, and I wait every day to catch the Widget here.

[phrigndumass]

4. yw ... we share the obsession :)

:donut: Good morning, Cosmocat! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Off to work kick

:kick: Have fun today trying to predict the repub VP pick ... My guess is McCain/Loser!

[phrigndumass]

12. Evening punt

My guess was right! :D

[grantcart]

6. Its starting to look alot like Christmas

we will be looking for some interesting state poll results in the next few days

[phrigndumass]

9. "Rocketman" by Elton John is stuck in my head :)

Those swing states need to swing back further to Obama!

[TornadoTN]

7. The California trend is odd - any insight?

Do you have any insight into why the California tracking would be trending slightly towards McCain? I wouldn't have expected that at all to be honest.

[phrigndumass]

10. It could very well be inadequate methodology

It causes me to wonder: Is PPIC polling a fair amount of women vs. men, ethnic groups, young voters? Digging through all the data in the poll release, I found that they are polling 37% conservatives, 29% liberals and 32% moderates ... They give conservatives +8 while other pollsters are giving progressives the edge. That alone probably makes this poll an outlier.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_808MBS.pdf

:hi:

[Symarip]

8. K & R'd

You know how I find math so boring.

[phrigndumass]

11. If I had photoshop, I could make it look like ...

the Swedish Bikini Babes were holding the graphs like a banner. That'd sex it up a bit!

Thanks! :hi: