Palin is not a Surprise

[RoyGBiv]

I'm not really comfortable with this idea that Sarah Palin is a surprise choice. She's only a surprise because so much of the focus has been on the possibility of Mittens (my "favorite" just because I like calling him "Mittens"). Because of the rampant speculation focusing elsewhere, it is a de facto surprise, but I think we may be setting ourselves up for something ... not good by running with this idea that the choice of Palin is out of nowhere.

Newt Gingrich, for instance, had this to say in July:

White Men Can't Win

Ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) offers McCain this advice on his VP pick: "What I'm afraid of is that if Sen. McCain picks one more relatively boring, normal, mainstream Republican white guy -- he just makes the ticket seem boring compared to the level of energy and drive and excitement that Obama has."

Gingrich said both Jindal and Palin "could bolster McCain's efforts to seize the change mantle from Obama," since both govs. "ran as reformers in their respective states." Gingrich "said Jindal might be the 'brightest governor in the country today. He is also I think is engaging, cheerful personality who is very young and has a terrific capacity I think to get people intrigued with what he is doing and he probably knows more about healthcare policy than any other elected official in America."

As for Palin, Gingrich touted her as a "a genuine Alaskan, a hunter, a dog sledder" and an advocate for increased oil drilling. Gingrich: "And I think she would bring a level of excitement and uniqueness that people would have to stop and say 'boy this is kind of intriguing, this is something new'" (Martin, Politico, 7/23).

And on Fox News on August 13th he said:

Well, I think -- I think Senator McCain clearly has several choices that he could make. As you know, and we've discussed, Governor Romney might well bring him Michigan, and that could be a decisive factor, and would probably be very effective in Pennsylvania and Ohio in campaigning in those industrial states.

I think Governor Pawlenty is a real reformer who's had a good track record in Minnesota, and who's going to be host to the convention. I still like the idea of reaching out and a little bit of daring for Governor Jindal in Louisiana or Governor Palin in Alaska. But I think that Senator McCain has a number of choices that would be more than acceptable that would be effective and that could crest-cross the country, making the case for the solutions that McCain stands for on energy, on national security, on lower taxes.

He repeatedly mention Palin in various interviews at least as far back as March, 2008. At one time Palin was #3 on one of those systems that ranks things like this as though it were a horse race.

Back in June, on Fox's Hannity & Colmes, Alan Colmes said:

On the Republican side, Alaska governor Sarah Palin is being mentioned. She is almost 30 years McCain's junior and quell some of the questions about his age.

Finally, on August 1st, The Washington Times ran a story with the following excerpt:

"Yes, the gap for Obama among women over 40 is real," said Randy Brinson, a Montgomery, Ala., physician, evangelical leader and founder of the national Redeem the Vote movement. "Obama validates all the security concerns of women by his radical agenda, his inexperience, his redistribution-of-wealth ideas and the view that America is subservient in status in regard to Europe, which Obama embraces."

Nevertheless, there is growing buzz around Mrs. Palin, the first female governor of Alaska and youngest ever at 44. In April, she had her fifth child, Trig, who has been diagnosed with Down syndrome. Her other colorfully named children are Bristol, Willow, Piper and Track, who at age 18 joined the Army last Sept. 11.

Once a beauty queen in her hometown of Wasilla, Alaska, she has earned a reputation for toughness, eating moose burgers (she's a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association and her Web site shows her holding the antlers of a downed moose), riding snowmobiles and fishing. A former point guard for her high school basketball team, she is a regular churchgoer, staunchly pro-life and, like Mr. McCain, thinks climate change poses a threat.

She is the focus of a Web site (palinforvp.blogspot.com) and elicits oohs and ahhs from leading evangelicals, who are cool to Mr. Romney.

"Palin is an easy sell, particularly because of the recent birth," David Barton, named by Time magazine as one of America's most influential evangelicals, told The Washington Times.

This has been in the works for awhile. She has been vetted. She has many controversies surrounding her, going back to her stint as mayor when she dismissed the police chief upon taking office and was subsequently sued by the former police chief for breach of contract. (Her decision was upheld by the court, but it brings some context for her current controversy and could be used by the McCain campaign to highlight her so-called "reformer" mentality.)

Against Biden, she's nothing, but she brings things to the table elements we best not simply laugh off as a part of some last-minute choice made in desperation. Yeah, it is a desperate choice, but one that has been in the works for some time.

[RoyGBiv]

1. Furthermore ...

This "surprise" candidate thing seems to have followed her throughout her career.

She was called a "rising star" in the Republican Party as far back as 2002. She ran for lieutenant governor, lost a very close race, and was subsequently appointed by Governor Murkowski a position on the Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, a move that surprised many watching such appointments. The two who voted against her confirmation questioned her credentials to serve such in such an important position given that her only experience was as a mayor of a relatively small town (largest growing or not) who had no background at all in the issues involving the energy industry.

At length she emerged again as a "surprise" leading candidate when she ran for governor.

Throughout her career, she has been mentioned many, many times as a "possible" this or that and has moved into positions no one seemed to expect her to move into.

Despite her utter lack of credentials that would make her fit for the Vice Presidential position, this person is a career politician who seems to work on the basis of being a "surprise."