Gustav has been rapidly intensifying during the overnight hours.
Satellite images indicate that an eye is becoming visible and deep
convection surrounding the eye is now very intense. The central
pressure is down to 965 mb...a drop of about 24 mb in 24 hours. The
maximum flight level winds reported by the Air Force crew were 100
kt around 6z... corresponding to about 90 kt at the surface.
However the satellite presentation has continued to improve...thus
the initial intensity is increased conservatively to 95 kt.
Objective Dvorak T-numbers are much higher and the next aircraft
pass through Gustav could find a major hurricane.
Further intensification is expected for the next day or so while the
system traverses the extremely warm and deep waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.
However...by 48 hours...almost all of the global models show an
increase in vertical wind shear near Gustav. In addition...since
The Loop current is south of its typical location...the hurricane
will be moving over waters that are not nearly as conducive for
strengthening as they could be. These two factors will hopefully
weaken the storm prior to U.S. Landfall. However...Gustav is
expected to be a large and dangerous hurricane and the NHC forecast
continues to show Gustav as a major hurricane at landfall.