As an Alaskan who had time to sleep on this Palin thing....

[WindRiverMan]

In all honesty, when I first heard Palin was the selection, my first response was "This is a joke!". Of course, it turned out to not be a joke. I think, more than anything, this was a "shock" effect to bring some breath of life into McCain's campaign. I also think McCain had few real choices. Romney would have been terrible due to his money, Pawlenty was boring, Lieberman would have made the party implode. So he picked Palin on a whim looking for help.

Now, as an Alaska, I don't like many of Palin's policies, but she actually has a populist streak in her that is not too bad. However, she is in no way, shape, or form ready for the national stage. In all honesty, she just is not smart enough, does not have the right pedigree, and despite what they are spewing now, does not have the experience to be commander in chief if The Ancient One goes down.

I think the Obama campaign will point this out in the weeks to come. Her total naivette is, for now, endearing to some; however, it will show her incompetence for the task at hand as the newness fades and we get into the meat and the potatoes of the game.

She has excited their base, she is a gun toting, moose hunting, salmon fishing, wilderness lady. Pretty amazing by New York standards. As an Alaskan, I can assure you it's pretty much the norm. My 13 year old daughter could claim the same thing, plus she is a damn fine first mate when we take the boat out on the big water. Still, it is very foreign and exciting to those who have never experienced true wildnerness, remoteness, or lived a pseudo subsistence lifestyle where your protient sources are mostly what you can kill or catch. For Alaskans, it is pretty typical. Alaska is a different world, and if you have never lived there, you just don't understand. I have been stationed in the lower 48 on a work detail for 11 months now, and I miss it terribly.


This may stir up his base a bit, it will certianly stir up the religious right, as this is the candidate they have been looking for. However, most of them were going to vote for McCain anyway. I think this vote will hurt McCain with the independents severly, it is highly irresponsible for an old man with health issues to choose such an inexperienced person to be second in command, and the Independents tend to evaluate the situation fairly closely before they make a decsion. This won't help.

This Alaskan is going to sit back and enjoy the ride for a bit, but I fully expect this choice to implode to some degree within the next few weeks as the world gets to know Sarah Palin.

[maseman]

1. Thanks for the analysis

I still don't know what to think. After a week of sitting in front of the TV watching the convention and blogging my ass off I think I need to walk away for the weekend, chill with the kids, and come back Tuesday.

Thanks!

[DemsUnited]

2. Many, many thanks for the inside perspective! K&R.

[shey1218]

3. if you are in alaska

what do you know about the pipeline deal

[JustAnotherGen]

4. Thanks for your perspective

How do you account for her 80% approval rating in Alaska? The people that you know up there that 'approve' of her as Governor - what makes them approve of her? Her 'outsider' status?

Having slept on this too - I'm kind of glad they picked her . . . he could have picked someone else off the radar - someone like Pataki (former Gov of NY who even I have to admit - I liked the guy and voted for him) - but who has a solid background.

If anything this makes me even more certain that we need to/must get Obama/Biden elected. McCain's age is a critical issue - and Palin is too green to be Commander in Chief.

[kwolf68]

7. No offense to Alaska

But just because you have a high approval rating there doesn't mean shite.

Alaska is not a very diverse state and it is sparsely populated. Their Democrats up there would be considered Republicans in most of the rest of the country.

It's the same thing as saying the County Commissioner in Lubbock, Texas is approved of...it means nothing.

[JustAnotherGen]

28. I would agree

Re the lack of diversity in the state.

I lived in NY for 30 years of my life. In Monroe County. Doesn't get redder than that. :rofl: Republicans up there are 'Yankee Libs' when they get down to MS. It's true. I can't help but think that her governorship is basically like being the Erie County Exec. About the same amount of people. Unfortunately - she hasn't had the gritty experience that a County Executive in a Great Lakes city has gained. Especially in the old steel/manufacturing towns that have watched their jobs leave this country right and left.

[WindRiverMan]

10. Well, 80% approval comes from the fact

that she tossed a lot of old time Republicans who were last minute appointments by the former Republican governor out on their asses. She followed Frank Murkowsky, a former senator turned governor who appointed his daughter to his Senate Seat, with an approval rating of eight percent (no not a typo, it was eight percent). The Republican party in Alaska is probably the most corrupt group of people in the country. They have the power and no scrutiny -- they do as they please.

She is also a woman of the people to some degree. She's not smart, but she is compassionate. The state is flush with money and she is trying to help people out with their high energy costs, etc. Also, remember, when she was elected, oil was going for about 38 dollars a barrel, now it is over 120. The coffers are full, so she does not have to make harsh decisions. There is plenty to go around.

You must also remember that Jerry Prevo, a student of Jerry Falwell, has a huge congregation in Anchorage, multi million dollar churches, buses, homes, etc. These fundamentalists LOVE Palin's religion, and the born again movement is huge in Anchorage.

[Schema Thing]

25. 67% approval

[kath]

46. yes -down to 67% or less and falling -- see this article:

http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/what-is-mccain-thinking-one-alaskans-perspective/

"After extensive news coverage about all this nasty behind-the-scenes scandal, which is definitely NOT squeaky clean, Palin’s approval ratings fell to 67%, still high, but a far cry from the 90% number that’s being thrown around so glibly by the Republicans today. Alaskans are quickly becoming disillusioned once again."


The 80-90% approval numbers that the Repugs are shouting from the rooftops are BULLSHIT.

[JustAnotherGen]

29. Thanks for the additional insight.

I mean no disrespect - but I don't think of 'Alaska' - well, ever . . . So what goes on up there isn't on my radar. I'll have to do some digging into the States political culture/climate in general to understand how this woman got elected in the first place. What I gather is they hired/elected the Mayor of Warsaw, NY(Gaslight Village if that tells you anything) to run their state. God help us if the thugs steal this election. God help us.

[KittyWampus]

5. slight point, many of the Fundie were NOT going to vote McCain but would have sat homeld

Now they'll show up.

On the good side, Creation Care Evangelists will HATE Palin

[DarthDem]

6. Sound Analysis

Thanks. I agree with virtually all of it.

[fasttense]

8. She seems very exotic. Oh wait that's Hawaii. n/t

[NRaleighLiberal]

9. The naming did something else - it dominated news. think about it - after Obama's historic speech,

would naming of Ridge or Lieberman or Romney or Pawlenty have hijacked the talking heads near as much as Palin?

They may have tossed the election to hijack the news, but face it, the RW noise machine is good. (and I hate them!).

[smoogatz]

11. So, McCain wins the 24-hour news cycle.

Meanwhile, If elected, his VP will not be ready to lead. Country first!

[WindRiverMan]

14. Yeah, and while I don't mean to be the glass half full

I actually see that as a GOOD thing! The news cycle would NOT have propped it up, FOX and CNN would have torn it apart, you know it and so do I. As it stands now, 40 million watched this thing, and 40 million got to form their own opinion - what do you think that opinion is?

[NRaleighLiberal]

20. just remember that much of the public is not nearly as smart as we at DU.

And I don't mean that to be an elitist comment - we here are the politcal junkies who think and analyze - the public is not nearly as sophisticated and much more liable to be swayed by bullshit

[POAS]

21. Your right ...............but............

what will those 40 million who are less politically aware but saw the speech and then the Palin pick going to take away.

My feeling is that the majority went "wow" on Thursday night and then went "what?", "who?" on Friday. That gut reaction will carry into the debates and then the election and I think it serves Obama much better than it serves McCain by dominating a news cycle.

[NRaleighLiberal]

23. Agreed. this is a good discussion for a Sat AM..thanks. Wow indeed -

in fact, if millions watched speeches by Kerry, the Clintons, Gore, Biden and Obama of course, boxes of Kleenex were used - this is the most inspired we've felt since...well, since election night 1999 when the networks had Gore leading in Florida.

This is a big test for the US - will it finally allow itself to do something positive, or is the spirit so squashed that it can only put itself back into the murk and mire.

Or, maybe most importantly, how bold will the repubs be in terms of trying to steal this one!

[DangerousRhythm]

26. Yep, this is exactly McCain's mistake. He didn't let FOX chew on that speech long enough.

Good for us!

Still, we have careful work to do. Never, ever take your eye off the ball.

:dem:

[tinrobot]

22. 38 Million still saw Obama's speech

A news cycle doesn't take that away.

[nichomachus]

33. The Palin fascination may have helped Obama

A speech like Obama's is an experiential event. You are inspired in the act of watching it, not in talking about it for days on end. Kind of like kissing or dancing.

Besides, if they didn't have Palin to talk about, the corporate media would have devolved into nitpicking Obama's speech -- thereby taking away some of the experiential glow that many people felt.

Having Palin's announcment divert the attack dogs from the speech may have actually helped people keep their good feelings about Obama, while leading them to scratch their heads over McCain and his flyweight running mate.

[RufusTFirefly]

35. I'm with Nicho on this

The Palin circus leaves the magic of the Obama speech virtually intact. I wasn't a huge Obama fan -- and I still have my misgivings -- but even from my jaded perspective, I believe he has now been responsible for at least two watershed moments in modern American history: the amazing, inspiring spectacle on Thursday night in Denver and his incredible speech on race earlier in the campaign, one of the best speeches of the last quarter century.

The Palin decision will create a stir and then ultimately come back to bite McCain as the excitement wears off. The Obama moments on the other hand will last a good long time and may in fact be remembered for generations.

[theoldman]

12. Being such an outdoor person you would think that she would

want to protect the area, not destroy it. Being a good governor for Alaska does not qualify her to be president of the US in case McCain dies.

[kwolf68]

18. Outdoors

Is not necessarily a reverence for life, but the joy in hunting it...a high tech thrill kill theme park if you will.

Outside of her 'love of outdoors' is a political conviction that is right wing...more power for the powerful, more power for those who wish to exploit the land. Alaska has shitloads of land, so taking a few million acres here or there means nothing to them, because there are millions still left.

They think in Alaska a lot like we used to think down here about the land 150 years ago. That's not saying it's a bad thing, but I hope as Alaska 'develops' their state, they learn from the lessons of the lower 48.

[JohnnyLib2]

13. Thank you, from a native Nevadan.

The life style you describe was not for me, and I moved on as an adult.
But it is very familiar and still exists, to some extent, all across the west and elsewhere.

As it happens, I visited Alaska briefly in July. My first and non-political impression of Juneau (and that of a sibling) was, "Good lord, this is our just like our childhood!"

Admittedly, that was in the 50s, which is a statement in itself. I think your analysis is dead-on.

Edited to add: VOTE 'EM DOWN!

[Joe Chi Minh]

15. "The Ancient One" has a certain ring to it. We used to have a song in the

UK charts called, "Grandad", with a very repetitive chorus made up of the simple word, "Grandad". I wish I could find it and make an audio file, but that would be beyond me anyway

[enfield collector]

27. aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrggggghhhh, not that old clive dunn song! Please let

that sleeping dog lie.

[Joe Chi Minh]

36. I don't know... I think it would be terrific as McCain's signature tune.

That's the one though. Clive Dunn's.

[apnu]

16. Right. This pick is to shore up the GOP base first, and piss us off second.

And that second option is, for McCain, just gravy.

[C_U_L8R]

17. We should not take her lightly

or underestimate her. That said, I believe her own mouth and beliefs will sink her.
Attack her the wrong way and it will be used against us. I can't imagine a more
awful choice... but the rest of the country needs to discover for themselves that
she is indeed the worst of the worst. I'm confident that the Obama team will
dispatch Palin smartly in many assorted pieces.... by keeping the focus on McCain.

[Joe Chi Minh]

37. They've managed rather well with this kind of tactic, and having our own scurrilous

noise-machine seems to me a step in the right direction. Don't fear these things being used against you ever. It under-estimates the intelligence of the politicised public. You play into their hands. Don't play by their rules. You set the agenda, and don't let them forget it. If they could come up with some plausible policies, you might cut them some slack (or you might not), but as it is, they've made it a turkey-shoot, not you.

If only you had half-honest MSM... but I think you should settle for what the progressives can put on. More and more people seem to be tuned in to the progressive broadcasters, whether stalwarts of the blogosphere or the few truth-tellers in the MSM. In fact, the impression I have is that many would consider your suggestion to take her other than lightly to be insulting in the circumstances.

[MissWaverly]

19. My wild guess, Cindy will sabotage campaign

Can't see her sharing oval office and hubby with beauty queen

[secondwind]

24. You have given us all a lot of perspective

about what it means to come from Alaska...and to know that most all folks in Alaska, our beautiful northern exposure state, can do the same thing as this woman.......

She is attractive, self assured, articulate, and otherwise nothing else stands out.

[DeschutesRiver]

30. We have an AK connection

in that dh is an AK bar member. You have a wonderful state, and we've often discussed spending some serious quality time up there. Sorry you are temporarily stuck in the lower 48.

I can't find too much to dislike personally about this Palin person yet, but this isn't American Idol we are voting on. There seem to be many positions that a person like her could either succeed at or maybe just muddle through. But I can't find any way to fit her into a job like the VEEP slot. The meat just isn't there; worse if I read correctly about what has gone on in Wasilla, or the whole troopergate deal.

My gut says waaayyyy over her head - so much so that there must be an implosion shortly. And for the life of me, I can't figure out how Karl Rove or McCain's rovian types could be dumb enough to miss this. Well, they aren't dumb. And they encouraged him to pick a person not only unqualified for a position at this level, at this time, but one with a corruption investigation ongoing.

It struck me that with our bad economy, and the renewed determination of democrats to seize back the WH, this may be a head faking setup. If the repubs wanted to toss the election to the democrats, allowing them to be captains of our ship in these rough seas and to take the blame for all the crap that is coming, then they couldn't have done better than to show McCain to have impaired judgment by picking someone about to implode for many reasons.

Yeah, I know, far out there, but certainly not something that the repubs would be uncapable of doing. It would explain a lot.

[RichardRay]

31. ...she is a gun toting, moose hunting, salmon fishing, wilderness lady...

Well said.

I'm down here in The Big Square State (Wyoming). You pointed out something I was experiencing, but couldn't explain.

Sarah Palin looks, acts and has the skills of a lot of women in Wyoming, too, even if it's not seen very often in NYC or LA. The ability to roll under the truck and unwrap the snow chain that busted a link and fouled the axle without messing up her mascara is pretty common; Palin's social and religious choices aren't as ubiquitous.

Admirable, perhaps, but certainly not a qualification to be Vice President and certainly not to step into the Oval Office.

[mnhtnbb]

32. My bet is that Palin will never be nominated. Talk about not being vetted!

I predict Palin will withdraw before the nominating process with an explanation that
she hadn't really thought through what it would mean to her family.

[glitch]

47. Agreed. But who will they choose to replace her?

Some folks say she's a stalking horse>>scapegoat, will draw fire then withdraw at the last minute and then they'll put in their real candidate.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

34. You have hit the nail on the head with this statement:

...it is highly irresponsible for an old man with health issues to choose such an inexperienced person to be second in command, and the Independents tend to evaluate the situation fairly closely before they make a decision. This won't help.

Thank you!

K&R



:patriot:

[grantcart]

38. I vote your daughter as a better VP than Palin

[WindRiverMan]

41. She has as much experience :)

But does not meet the age requirement. Plus I would NEVER trust John McCain with my daughter.....

[4_Legs_Good]

39. Important perspective

:)

Thanks!

David

[Emit]

40. it is highly irresponsible for an old man with health issues to choose such an inexperienced person

I agree totally with this comment

k&r

[GoesTo11]

42. Alaskan: How serious is the Governor's job in your state?

What kinds of issues does a governor have to deal with - other than corruption? Are there health-care initiatives, poverty programs, education standards? How powerful is the legislature compared with the governor? How powerful is the state government compared to municipalities? My impression is that a lot of what Alaska's governor does is get oil money and divvy it out. It would be very interesting to hear from a real Alaskan.

[SoxFan]

43. This is a good question

In some states (New Hampshire and Texas come to mind), the governor is hamstrung by state constitutional provisions, and has limited influence over policy and/or day-to-day governance.

[Eurobabe]

44. Just wait till she debates Joe Biden

if she even makes it that long.

That's all.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

45. Yes, I agree with your analysis. Excites base. Damages credibility.

Credibility is important with independents who will be less "woohoo" about the snowmobile racing and gun shooting.