My thoughts re Palin

[RedSpartan]

Long time member here, sometime poster.

I went to bed furious last night. Judging by the reaction of the right-wing base, it seemed to me that McCain has played his hand well here. Maybe it was the only thing he could do. But regardless of how transparently political, desperate and pandering the choice of Palin is, the elections of 2000 and 2004 made me lose faith in the ability of the average American voter to see through smoke and mirrors and make a clear, rational choice. My gut started to tell me that McCain might win this thing.

But as I went to bed, I started to calm down a bit. I saw replays of portions of Obama's speech on the news, and came back to the reality that, in the end, this election is about Obama vs McCain. And McCain simply can't win that fight. He knows it; hence, this political Hail Mary Pass. But could the gamble pay off? This morning, just a few hours after I was all doom and gloom and thought it might, I believe the answer is clearly no.

Already the news media have moved on to the next story: Hurricane Gustav. Then it will be on to the GOP Convention, where, coming off the last eight years, there will be far more to cover and talk about than Palin. The GOP can't come close to topping what the Democratic Party just did in Denver. The story will be how the GOP Convention was not the rousing success they needed. Then the general election will begin in earnest. And some child will be abducted, or some celebrity will be photographed without any underwear, or something else the media can obsess with for a while and take a break from constant politics. The nonstop grind of the election season is tough on them and tough on the attention span of the public (read: ratings). They'll need to spice it up a bit. The point is, the news and excitement of Palin's selection will fade into the background with relative speed, and Obama and McCain will return to the front, where McCain can't compete.

Moreover, whether the conservative christian base of the GOP is fired up or not, Palin does not help McCain where it really matters: swing states. The swing states turn on independent voters. In 2000, many were complacent or voted for Nader. In 2004, enough were scared by the "terrurist" boogeyman that they voted for Bush. In 2008, swing voters will not turn out in droves to vote for an unqualified pro-life, pro-gun, pro-creationism VP candidate - - certainly not supporters of Hillary. Sure, some will, but not enough to turn the election, and, quite frankly, those who do were never going to vote for Obama anyway.

The historical fact is that VP selections almost never make the difference. Palin is not LBJ in 1960. What she is is an indictment of McCain's claims of "Country First" and that he has the temperment and decision-making skills to lead this country. And it effectively takes the "Obama is not experienced enough" arrow - - perhaps McCain's strongest - - out of his quiver.

In the end, this election is about Obama vs McCain. About change vs more of the same. About the failed policies of the past vs the promise of a better and brighter future. About the disasterous status quo vs a new and energized electorate containing millions of young voters who will not stay at home, who will not be written off. It is not about Sara Palin.

That is why we will win.

[Island Blue]

1. Thank you for this post.

You've made me feel better about the situation.

[adadem]

2. Thanks, too

Very rational and well thought out....you should post more often!

[asjr]

3. I wish I could share your optimism.

I just knew Gore would win in 2000; I just knew Kerry would win in 2004. The older I become the less I am optimistic about anything. I will vote for Obama but will not bet on the race.

[succubus.blues]

4. me too

Sadly, I have no faith in the "average" american voter.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

5. Palin, ofcourse is nothing more than a distraction

[mnhtnbb]

6. I predict Palin won't make it to the nomination.

[TexasObserver]

7. While Palin is "one of them" for fundies, it's still a fundamental disconnect.

Let me explain something, for those who have never been to a service at such a church as the one she attends.

First, and foremost, the MEN who run the church sit up front, usually in big chairs that look like thrones. The message is clear that the church's male elders run the tribe.

Second, and almost as important, when they have their spirit dancing and talking, they usually divide up, with women attending the women and men attending the men.

This is not a culture where women lead in any capacity. It is incongruous for them that a woman be in charge, and for that reason, while Palin's religion is acceptable to them, many will find her role as VP unacceptable. There's some karma at work there, but I'm convinced because of the way these churches think, her addition to the ticket will not mobilize fundies at all. Many will be off put or ambivalent.

I think Palin therefore helps McCain with fundies only marginally, by not being violative of their basic tenets. Huckster would have motivated the, but Palin will not.