Rasmussen daily GE graph for 8/30/08 - Obama 47, McCain 43 (O up 1)

[DavidDvorkin]

With leaners, Obama 49, McCain 45 (unchanged)

This includes one day of the Palin Effect, which so far isn't doing anything for McCain in this poll.














These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html


Gallup:

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[DavidDvorkin]

1. Kick

[mvd]

2. I wonder who is closer - Gallup or Rasmussen?

Gallup shows the more conventional bounce you would think we'd get after a great convention.

At the least, in this poll, Obama's speech negated any one-night bump from Palin.

[yourguide]

4. The gallup poll that would show Obama's speech hasnt posted yet...

But that would also include some of the "afterglow" of the Palin pick.

[mvd]

6. I meant yesterday, when Gallup had double the lead

We will see if Rasmussen's consistency holds or if it remains a bigger bump.

[yourguide]

7. I suspect it moves up for Obama because of

how stunning the speech was and the number of viewers. Even with some of the palin offset I can see Obama getting at least a 5 point bump maybe negated by a 2 or 3 point offset for the Palin pick.

However a guy from Gallup was on either CNN or MSNBC this morning said he expected to see things move back in McCains favor.

[mvd]

8. He "expected?"

I don't like that. How does he know how much bump McCain will get from the pick and their convention.

Makes me wonder. :hi:

[yourguide]

9. Made me wonder too...

Even my boyfriend, just waking up and incredibly hungover caught that as well.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. This should be the "end" of the bump.

In the sense tomorrow, Palin's choice begins to have an impact. If McCain doesn't rise in the polls much, it's over.

These unknown picks are all about the initial buzz. It's not like the Biden pick, which could play a bigger role later in the campaign. This is about getting McCain back into this race and if he fails, I don't see how opinions of Palin change two months from now, especially with experience becoming more of an issue.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Yes, the next week will the one for anxiety

For those of us who get anxious over tracking polls, that is.