Did McCaiin lock down the south with Palin?

[Perky]

My sense is that he need to close the enthusiasm gap with the Fundies in the south, to take Georgia and perhaps NorthCarolina out of battleground status.

If he pulls women in other swing states it might be s samrt and succesful strategy.

the Obama Campaign needs, IMHO, to create a wedge among women voters who might be inclined to vote for Palin on gender grounds.

It could be done on ABortion.... but that would tend to enthuse the fundies.

Experience and Commander in Chief is fertile ground but it is just as likely to bring charges of sexism if not played right

I think there is something to a very subtle surrogate led attack on the challenges of being a parent of a Downs Kid. NOTE THIS IS NOT A GENDER ROLE ISSUE. IT IS ABOUT PARENTAL OBLIGATIONS REGARDING SPECIAL NEEDS KIDS. There are lots of fundies who love their kids and will view this as ambition and abandoment. ANd would be designed to force Palin into a discussion about work-life balance.

There are fracture points with value voters that need to be exposeed and discussed.

[Midlodemocrat]

1. Not according to MY Republican friends.

They're are despondent over this choice.

[NJmaverick]

2. Palin isn't exactly a Southerner

So no, I don't think it helped McCain

[liberalmuse]

3. There are a lot of very intelligent, liberal Southerners.

Maybe not a majority, but I don't believe he has locked down the South with his pick.

[Imagine My Surprise]

4. I know at least one nutjob religious GOP in liberal Louisville...

who thinks she can raise the dead. I am NOT optimistic about this election! Louisville is a VERY liberal town, contrary to what many on here seem to think. KY is red but Louisville is NOT.

[DarthDem]

6. Get Real

Spare us.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DarthDem]

5. No

The racists in the South won't vote for Obama anyway. However, Virginia and North Carolina may be exceptions, and Palin will play HORRIBLY among Democrats in those states when her views (creationism?? No abortion for rape victims, for crying out loud????) become more widely known.

I think Obama will win VA and come very close in NC - - with perhaps enough coattails to knock off the despicable, idiotic Liddy Dole as well.

[greguganus]

22. What about all the racists in the North? n/t

[DarthDem]

24. What About Them?

There are far more in the South. And the North didn't force a civil war over the right to enslave people, IIRC.

[greguganus]

25. I've lived in the south, north, and midwest and see about the same # of racists everywhere.

I live in the south now, but I'm from Nebraska, and broad brush painting the south makes you look like a fool. And what does a war fought over a hundred years ago have to do with racism in the south now? Stop living in the past. I've lived down here for 20 years and most of the people I meet are transplants.

[sampsonblk]

39. I Beg to differ

There are very clear differences between north and south, even today.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/19/obama-faces-white-resista_n_82300.html

The polls are out there.

[DarthDem]

41. Heh

What difference does the Civil War make? Now I know you don't have a real argument. Ask around in the South and see how people feel about it. Wow.

[C_U_L8R]

7. She inoculates McToejam against the lunatic fringes

of his own party.. and that's about all she does.

[Danger Mouse]

8. She'll mobilize the fundies somewhat.

But only somewhat. She is NOT enough to help McCain win.

[CatsDogsBabies]

9. She is from Alaska

I can't imagine this swaying the southern vote

[melody]

10. Not even remotely

He has lost a large number of independent men and women who won't like the shoddy, pandering nature of
his choice. He's lost men and women who just won't vote for a woman on the ticket. AND women in general
are going to hate this choice because it's insulting.

I notice we have the concern trolls out in force already.

[ericgtr]

12. A better question might be did McCain do anything to vet her

I mean he just pulled this out of a hat and the dems are now armed and ready to fire with both barrels against this woman who, on the day of her announcement, is hit with a scandal and zero foreign policy experience. I used to respect McCain but he would sell his mother's soul to get a vote and obviously put no time into checking out Palin's background what so ever.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

13. He solidified the fundie base who were going to come home to him regardless...

But he did nothing for Independents and I don't think he made a dent with moderate Republicans who have already vowed to vote for Obama!

[napi21]

14. I DO think she helped with the extremist fundies. Not only in the south

but everywhere. HOWEVER, I think she probably turned off a lot of Inds who MIGHT have voted for him until they heard Sarah would push to make all abortions, in every State, with NO exceptions, ILLEGAL! C. Matthews pointed that out. He kept repeating ILLEGAL, ILLEGAL, ILLEGAL!

By far, the majority of Americans, even those who believe abortion is wrong, are not in favor of making it ILLEGAL!

[Crowman1979]

18. Heck, she is too radical for even the fundies down here in the South.

Plus no one has ever heard of her! In conclusion, McCain has already lost. And Obama will be the next president! I voted for him in the nomination and plan on doing the same in the general election.

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

15. I think he already had it locked down

Georgia was not going to happen and NC was a long shot.

I don't think the pick really helps him where he needs it.

[MarjorieG]

16. Fundies are everywhere, esp CO & OH, where they worked so deceitfully in 2004.

I'm concerned how little media scrutiny we will get on her, and reports from Alaska are not good. Not on the investigation about her(not such a slam dunk against a spouse abuser), etc, and we all need to get the word out where time is short.

[grandpappy]

17. Strenthen the repuke party

in some parts of the south is the only thing her selection will do in the election.

[GreenPartyVoter]

19. No way. There are plenty of Southern Baptists who will not vote for her

regardless of her perfect religious stance, simply because she is woman.

[dailykoff]

26. Maybe, but there are lots who will because of her beliefs.

And a lot of them will be women.

[GreenPartyVoter]

27. But those aren't new voters. Those are standard conservative voters who either

were going to vote Repub anyway, or shied away because of McCain and have now been brought back into the fold. I think there will be very few new voters drawn to Palin based on her religious beliefs.

Yes, there may be some women who will vote for anyone in a skirt regardless of policy positions :eyes: but how many can there _really_ be who are that stupid or uninformed?

[dailykoff]

33. Good point. What I mean is, there are a lot of Christian women

who will identify with her because they're basically like her. Just talking from my own experience in So Cal, where I saw a lot of women EXACTLY like her when I worked there.

[GreenPartyVoter]

34. Oh, without a doubt. I go to my hubby's conservative church and I am sure

I will be hearing raves. :eyes:

[dailykoff]

35. Frankly I think that's mainly why he chose her.

He needed that vote and she's going to reel them in a way Romney and Pawlenty never could.

[GreenPartyVoter]

36. Huckabee could have, though, and he has more experience. So once again that

shows that the whole point was for her to be a woman. x(

[nini]

20. The Fundies were already going to vote McCain

I'm not convinced she's going to pull anyone to McCain who wasn't going to vote for him anyway. He may have actually lost some votes because of her inexperience AND the motherhood thing of those fundies who believe a woman's place is in the home etc..

I'm sick of the hoopla over her but it's going to be like this for a few days until the issues come up again and she shows herself to be the inexperienced phony she is.

[underpants]

21. A waste of energy

He used the VP pick to save fundie gun toting southern votes

[greguganus]

23. Who are the gun toting northerners going to vote for? n/t

[paulk]

28. the south is already locked down

and anyone who thinks that GA and NC are "battleground" states is living in dreamland.

Obama will win or lose this election in the rustbelt and mountain west - it's a far better use of time to worry about Palin's effect there, IMHO.

[SOS]

29. She's nothing more than a Rove puppet

Rove believes that Republicans will always win as long as the far-right, fundamentalist base shows up.
That's her sole purpose on this ticket.
Her first meeting in Phoenix was with Rove's marionette in the McCain camp, Steve Schmidt.
Palin probably will lock the South, but Obama will concentrate on close states in other regions to get the necessary electoral votes.

[CreekDog]

30. I thought you said "did McCain look down south with Palin"

and this video makes me think he did in fact, "look down south" at her. :think:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5J98Rnft9s&eurl=http://www.pamshouseblend.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6737

[mnhtnbb]

31. NC will not fall for Palin. Remember, Kay Hagan has just overtaken Dole

in the polls running for Dole's Senate seat.

NC is going to be an Obama win.

[nsd]

32. Seniors in Florida are not going to be comfortable with this pick.

Especially when they contrast her with Joe Biden. Obama-Biden is going to look like a much less risky choice. I think we might have the edge in Florida now.

[RadicalTexan]

37. No one would try to use this angle against a man, so - no.

Sorry. No one is saying Obama shouldn't run because he has kids. The Down Syndrome angle is a ruse. This is about her being a woman - a bad mother. As a woman, and as a feminist, and as a liberal, it sickens me. I will not be a part of it.

[glancingthefuture]

43. my thoughts exactly

[quaker bill]

38. no

To the extent Barack is a threat in the south, it is because of the massive registration and mobilization African Amwerican voters. Palin will have no impact on this. The fundies were coming out for McCain anyway. If anything, her inexperience will hurt among those who are on the fence. As far as the rest goes, they have been locked on McCain for quite some time.

I actually think the obvious patronization of the "Hillary" voters this move represents, will actually send more of these voters to the Obama camp.

[Murdock]

40. Yes..

I live deep in the Republican Southeast. I can safely say that Obama is toast here. While there's concern about Palin's inexperience, she shores up McCain's evangelical flank. The Republican base is now energized and there's despair in the Democrat base.

I'm preparing for the ineviatable 8-12 more years of Republican rule.

[glancingthefuture]

42. How is this not a gender issue? Have you asked the dad to stay

home to care to the babe?


What a horrible suggestion from a Democrat on DU--to use the babe and his problem.
Shameful.

[GoesTo11]

44. swing state analysis

Virginia - remains a tossup - too much awareness of what experience is
North Carolina - remains leaning slightly to McCain - some creationist fundies offset by non-fundie professionals
Florida - moves toward Obama to even - she comes across as so young that elderly won't trust her
Ohio - probably moves from slight advantage Obama to even - will help w/real fundie turnout
Missouri - probably helps - they love Jesus and guns there.
Colorado - if anything helps Obama - she's anti-environmentalist
Nevada - probably moves away from Obama toward tossup status - they love to gamble, and have some far right wingers
Dakotas & Montana - helps McCain bolster base, since these are basically Alaska with fewer moose.
New hampshire - helps Obama -- they like independence, but have a lot of professionals who don't want a neophyte
Georgia - Not clear - it's not a monolothic state

Net: Obama gains in barely rep FL, barely Dem CO, barely dem NH; McCain gains in barely dem OH, leans rep MO, leans rep IN, barely dem NV and barely rep little states. At best (for McCain) a wash in the most swinging swing states, probably helps Obama but does bolster his leaning states a bit.

[Erin Elizabeth]

45. LOL, no.

I live in Texas. The reaction has ranged from "who?" to shoulder shrugs to chauvanistic men who seem distinctly unhappy about it.

So not from what I'm seeing.