Convention bumps (1964-2004)

[Martinucho]

I found a graph that poll junkies may find useful:



Comments please.

[dontforgetpoland]

1. Thanks for the post!

Interesting... I thought Kerry got more of a bounce than that. I wonder which polling firms they accrue their data from and from what timeframe after the convention.

[book_worm]

3. I recall 2004 quite well and it was commented widely on DU that Kerry got very little bounce

because I think he announced Edwards so early and it was kind of an anti-climactic convention with few red meat attacks on Bush.

[Martinucho]

2. This is the blog where I found it

http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/08/convention-bumps.html

[Smarmie Doofus]

4. Except for McGovern , our smallest bump was the Kerry/

/Edwards ,' Obama as keynoter' convention.

We should have used that chance to define the unspeakable. But party bigwigs said "don't make waves". Result: a snoozefest.

Who's gonna define the opposition except our own spokespeople? On my list of things I'll never understand.

[IndyOp]

5. Clinton getting a good bump in 1992 did occur before his win, but Carter = Reagan in

convention bumps in 1980, but Carter did not win. So, bumps don't predict victory.

[dontforgetpoland]

6. Clinton bump was helped when Ross Perot, who was leading at the time, decided to drop out.

Most of these voter went to Clinton and a lot remained after Perot changed his mind.