Interesting Bill Moyers discussion last night with political analysts Merle and Earl Black

[Emit]

A bit on Obama's strategy in the south:

MERLE BLACK: You know, what's really interesting here is the Democrats approach the south today, Clinton did this, and Obama's doing this now, and Al Gore tried to do this too, just like Eisenhower did in '52. They're not trying to sweep the region. They're just trying to deny the other party this huge block of electoral votes uncontested.

Any DUers from Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia? Let's get out there, register people to vote, get them to the polls! This is a keen strategy - let's help make this happen.


More here with video and transcript at the link, with some thoughts on McCain's VP pick:

~snip~

BILL MOYERS: In the context of this regional divide, and in the context of the ferocity of politics as you write about, why the choice of Governor Palin of Alaska? I mean, you don't think of Alaska as part of these five regional areas that you-

EARL BLACK: I think most - the parties and the conventions are trying to do two things. They're trying to, first, unify the party. And then they're trying to get a bump out of it to get a head start for the fall campaign.

So, for John McCain to pick an unknown, Governor Sarah Palin, there's very few Americans know of her existence until this morning here, I think speaks to his effort to try to unify the Republicans. Particularly the socially conservative Republicans. As the Republicans then proceed to go into the fall-

MERLE BLACK: Yeah because John McCain in some ways is a different type of Republican. He's been conspicuously different from George Bush on a number of issues during his presidency here. He's not the typical type of Republican.

So, in some ways, picking someone who's more conventionally conservative on the abortion issue and life issue, but also energy. She's a very strong advocate for drilling. Energy has become much more important issue in the country today. So I think, and also she's from the west.

BILL MOYERS: Do you think it makes McCain more competitive in this race to pick an unknown from a small state with only three electoral votes?

MERLE BLACK: This is a very risky strategy. I think it's a plus for him if she can campaign well. We don't know that. She may be really good on the campaign trail. She may be really bad. That's all to be determined as we go forward.

She has, obviously, no national security experience in this context, too. But, in terms of the south and the mountain plains, she's a very good choice because she will get a huge support, not only from evangelical Christians for whom life is a big, big issue. But also, I think, a lot of other Republicans too, for her, you know, emphasis on this energy issue.

BILL MOYERS: Someone said, this morning, that Alaska is the northern most southern state. Because his values correspond more closely to those below the Mason Dixon Line. I mean, does that make sense to you?

EARL BLACK: Well, I - it's very different, demographically. Basically, no African American in Alaska, so it's very unlike the southern states in that regard. But it's a land where rugged individualism is probably a requisite if you're going to spend your entire life in a climate like Alaska's. You know, you have to-

MERLE BLACK: And maybe more libertarian too. It's not-

BILL MOYERS: Less government intervention.

MERLE BLACK: Much less emphasis on religion than-

BILL MOYERS: Speaking of the south, you arrived today just as I was reading the new Winthrop poll taken among southern voters. It was astonishing. Among southern voters, McCain is leading Obama, generally, by 16 points. And, in the deep south, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina, he's preferred by 25 point margin. I mean, should Obama write off the south?

EARL BLACK: Well, I think Obama's going to focus on a few southern states where his chances might be better.

BILL MOYERS: Such as?

EARL BLACK: Florida. Virginia. North Carolina. And I think Georgia has been mentioned as one state where the party balance may not be as strongly Republican as it would be in some of the other states. Now, what the south is important, especially for the Republicans.

Because, for the Republicans to win a presidential election, they need to do what they've been doing, which is to carry all 11 southern states, and get a sweep of it. For the Democrats, that's out of the question. No Democrat has done that.

Not even Jimmy Carter. I think he took one - ten of 11 here. But if the Democrats can pick off one or two southern states, then it makes their job of getting past 270 electoral votes so much better. So Obama would not want to write off the south. He'd want to target individual states.

MERLE BLACK: You know, what's really interesting here is the Democrats approach the south today, Clinton did this, and Obama's doing this now, and Al Gore tried to do this too, just like Eisenhower did in '52. They're not trying to sweep the region. They're just trying to deny the other party this huge block of electoral votes uncontested.

BILL MOYERS: So what does that do to your strategy? To your combat, as you call it.

MERLE BLACK: Well, it means fierce combat in a small number of southern states, for example. Virginia. Where these changes in northern Virginia have really made the Democrats competitive in that state in a way in which they haven't been in about half a century. In Georgia, Georgia's probably the only deep south state where Obama has a possibility of a campaign.

BILL MOYERS: Because?

MERLE BLACK: Because you have a lot of migration into the Atlanta metro area from northerners, and people other parts of the country. You have a kind of a large black population that is concentrated in the Atlanta metro area. Much easier to organize. So you have the potential of a large organized African American vote in Georgia. Plus kind of northern migration. I think the native-

BILL MOYERS: Percentage of liberal white voters, right?

MERLE BLACK: Yeah, some liberal white voters who will go this way. You also have Bob Barr , the libertarian candidate, who might peal away a few votes.

BILL MOYERS: From Georgia, right?

MERLE BLACK: Yeah, but that big thing, going back to what you said before about the deep south, the deep south was enormously polarized four years ago. You know, go back to Kerry. John Kerry. Here's a white liberal. Kerry got about 14 or 15 percent in Mississippi of the white vote. You know, so Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, these are votes that are very, very racially polarized when the candidate is not an African American. And now you've got an African American candidate-

You know, it's hard for the Democrats to elect liberal whites, especially in southern states. So it should be a bit harder for them to elect a liberal African American candidate. That's the situation that Obama finds himself in, I think, in most of the southern states-

~snip~

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08292008/watch3.html

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Merle and Earl?

[Emit]

2. Twins, from the south .. what more need I say?

:shrug:

[GreenPartyVoter]

3. Interesting. When I was a kid I wanted twin girls I could name

Tasha and Sasha. :P

[clear eye]

4. Problem with Georgia is that it has the most

easily hacked voting system in the country.

[Emit]

5. That exact thought crossed my mind, too, as Moyers was talking

[montanacowboy]

6. I about fell off the couch when one said

that the Democratic Party was controlled by the liberal wing
anyone on DU could have taken apart most of the arguments they were making, it was just simply ridiculous

[Emit]

7. Well, I , too, thought they were way off with those comments

and I shouted at the teevee at that point, "Wha'?!".

But, in essence, I see their perspective in that the two parties appear (or are made to appear) wholly partisan now, seemingly polar opposite -- is that the media doing that? Making it appear so? Is that Hannity/Fox/Limbaugh claiming Obama is the most liberal Senator and is a Socialist?

It was naive on their part to make this claim, imho, and I almost stopped listening to them.

My criticism, in a nutshell, would be that they totally overlooked the Democratic Leadership Council's role in shaping the Democratic party, as well as the DLC's hawkish, "move to the center" players, or even how Clinton/Gore moved the party to the center with their neoliberal, Third Way thing.

But, if you read what they said, they refer to, historically, "conservative Democrats". Now, I'm no historian, but it seems they were talking about a different breed of Democrats that even the centrist, hawkish DLCers who infiltrated our party don't meet the definition of.

As far as the discussion about which states we need to win in the south, though, I thought it was interesting strategy, and not too far off base.

[Emit]

8. Also, their comments totally ignore how centrist Obama himself is

They obviously haven't read his book -- his second one, nor did they seem to notice that at the DNC numerous Repubs turned Dem or Independent came out in support of Obama, and, Obama's message itself, imo, was not laden with liberal hyperbole.