49% TO 41% - woohoo! (Gallup Tracker)

[bidenista]

For all those complaining we didn't get enough of a bump out of the Biden pick, check where things are at now:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.



With 49% of the vote, Obama has tied his high for the campaign to date. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) He has received a boost in the polls coming out of the Democratic Party's convention this week, at which he became the first African-American to be nominated as the presidential candidate of a major political party.

The current results are based on Aug. 27-29 interviewing, which includes two nights of polling during the convention and one post-convention night on Friday. The Friday interviewing was conducted in an unusual political environment -- the first conducted fully after Obama's well-regarded acceptance speech and McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Each event in isolation has usually been associated with increased candidate support for the relevant party. On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/109900/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Lead-49-41.aspx

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Will be interesting to see what the match-up will look like after the RNC convention

[AtomicKitten]

2. Beautiful.

Look for a :bounce: from independents when they get a load of the VP choice McBush has made.

[jaysunb]

3. If Gallup says it's 49% it's probably

3 - 5 points higher. They have no clue as to the youth vote that will determine this election.

THIS IS NOT 1968 !

[Obamaniac]

4. Gallup and Rassmussen are historically pro-Republican also

I'd wait for the other polls to come out. Gallup's numbers always seem to skew pro-Republican. Remember Gores 11 point drop in three days in September 2000? Remember Kerry's "negative bounce" after the last convention? Remember how close Gallup had the Congressional elections in 2006? Between August and October of every election year, they seem to pump up the Republicans until the final week or so where their numbers level out and then they claim accuracy.

With any poll you have to look at it's internals and methodology.

Gallup still seems to over count Republicans and under count Democrats, and these numbers are not justified based on previous voting behaviors in past elections. Their samples have a higher percentage of Republicans than which voted in recent elections. Other polls/surveys/analysis seem to suggest that Democratic registration across the country has gone up, while Republican registration has gone down. Thus their numbers can not be justified by that. It would only be justified if Gallup honestly believed that Republicans were more galvanized than Democrats this year, and ultimately more likely to vote. Never mind that every indicator so far has shown the exact opposite with Democrats from more energized than Republicans.

If Gallup says Obama is up by 8%, then in reality he's up between 11% to 15%.

Take that to the bank.

[bidenista]

5. not sure i wanna stake too much on the youth vote

I still have flashbacks to 2004 and the Eminem song that was meant to rally a generation!

[Alexander]

6. Holding a consistent lead is a good sign.

But we need to act like we're 5 points down all the time.