New Zogby/Williams poll Kerry leads 50.8 - 46.7

[59millionmorons]

Nationally, a large Zogby/Williams poll of 20,900 voters found Kerry leads Bush by 50.8 percent to 46.7 percent among likely voters, with only 2.4 percent undecided or so soft in their support of either candidate that they could easily change. That survey had an error margin of plus or minus less than 1 percentage point.

http://www.freep.com/news/latestnews/pm21317_20040828.htm

[AP]

1. Someone should tell the doom and gloomers over in GD2004.

[Neshanic]

2. Ya know....

[David Dunham]

4. This poll makes sense. Gore voters are almost all going for Kerry

The survey shows it's the Bush 2000 voters that are on the fence.

[alcuno]

9. Where's that picture from? It's terrific.

[AP]

21. The Kerry Blog.

I think a blogger snapped it from their TV screen.

I have no idea what city it's from.

[NewHampshireDem]

3. Telling quote ...

These undecided voters said either man could get that nod, a new survey shows. But hear their complaints: They don't like Bush's war in Iraq, and they simply don't like Kerry. As Kurt Trachte, 47, a construction worker from St. Charles, Mo., put it: "I massively want Bush to lose, but I don't like Kerry."

Two things come to mind. First, this guy is from Missouri, where my mother lives. My mom has never voted for a republican in her life, but for some strange reason she doesn't like Kerry and is actually considering voting for Nader. I sincerely don't know why Kerry doesn't connect with some voters. :shrug:

Second, I've been saying all along that it is one thing to say you're gonna vote for * in a telephone poll, but an entirely different thing to actually go out and do it. I don't believe * has the necessary number of motivated voters to carry him to a win. Kerry, on the other hand, certainly has. That's what all this (not so)Swift Boat crap was about ... suppressing the vote. * knows that many of the folks who voted for him in 2000 aren't going to and that many of them are likely to not vote at all. He's clearly trying to get them to stay home.

[Rose Siding]

5. "mailed out" could mean e-mailed- this looks like the on-line Zogby

From a different article about that seems to be about the same poll:
snip>
They prefer dogs to cats by more than 2 to 1, DVD to VCR by better than 3 to 1, and McDonald’s fries over Burger King’s by 5 to 1.

Their musical tastes vary; 28.4 percent favor rock, 20.7 percent classical and 17.4 percent jazz. Only 11.1 percent of the undecideds prefer country and 1.1 percent hip-hop.

The most undecided astrological signs: Libra, Virgo and Capricorn. The least: Pisces, Sagittarius and Aries.

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/section/News/2004082821?pt=20

[stavka]

7. Hey - I took that poll!

[Guaranteed]

6. I don't think I've ever seen something

more beautiful in my life.

[blm]

8. That doesn't even include all new/infrequent voters. Add 2% to Kerry

for a more accurate total.

[whistle]

10. Now, this is a poll with credibility....

...20,900 total voters included in the poll for a margin of error of +/- 1.0% at the 99.0% confidence level. Put another way there is a 99 to 1 chance that this poll should the vote occur now is accurate within a one percentage point range. So, this tells me that the same type of poll repeated a number of different times, like say 100, will show Kerry leading Bush by any where from 49.8% Kerry to Bush's 47.7% to 51.8% Kerry to Bush's 45.7% at least 99 times. There is only one chance out of those 100 identical polls would that range of results not occur and that would not mean that Kerry would fall below Bush ever, only that Kerry's lead would be outside of that 1% +/- range.

So what the hell are we giving any notice at all to these other Bushit polls that use sample sizes of 800 to 1000 respondents that qualify the results at 95% confidence +/- 3% to 5%? Those polls are pure smoke and mirrors, distractions and deflections of the truth.:wtf:

[fujiyama]

16. I noticed that

It's a huge sample with a very small margin of error. Also, the demographics that are undecideds are largely part of his base, which even if they do back Bush in the end, it can be more than offset with minorities, younger voters, etc etc.

[BootinUp]

11. Wow, awesome news

[eaprez]

12. Undecideds usually don't go with the incumbant.

I don't read much on that....but its true.

[fujiyama]

13. Encouraging overall

but one disturbing comment:

"The negative ads coming out saying he missed so many committee meetings he was involved in, those kinds of things," he said. "I haven't heard him deny them, so they must be true."

This shows that these ads are having SOME effect. They are planting doubts in people's minds. The media won't dispel these myths. The campaign has to respond better to these kinds of BS attacks.

[A_Possum]

15. The choice is more stark than that

I don't really see someone saying, "Oh, I don't like what Bush has done in Iraq, the economy is trashed, everything is going to hell, but WAIT...Kerry didn't go to enough committee meetings! I think I'll vote for Bush."

I just don't see it.

[teamster633]

14. I needed some good news, demdem.

Thanks.

[Nashyra]

17. Thay was the poll I took

[EST]

18. I, too was part of this poll...

One problem with polls, at this juncture, is that they tend to ask much the same questions, of the SAME people. When you sample the same people every time, you just aren't going to see much movement.

[npincus]

19. Is this poll posted anywhere online?

I am familiar with Zogby but not Zogby/Williams... does anyone have a URL for this group or for the poll results? I'd like to read it.

Please let this be the begiining of a backlash aginst smear tactics.

[newyawker99]

23. Hi npincus!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[npincus]

24. Thank you!

Thanks for the welcome! I'm watching the protest on C-SPAN and it's killing me not to be there.

Anyway, it's great to be here among like-minded people.

[footinmouth]

20. I also took that poll

I thought the questions were kind of weird. I'm a dog loving, pepsi drinking, heathen for Kerry.

[mzmolly]

22. Interesting factiod here:

Just 3 percent of persuadable voters said they will make up their minds after the Republican National Convention, which begins Monday. Another 31.8 percent said they will decide after the debates; 36.6 percent will decide during the last week of the campaign, and 13.5 percent expect to decide when they walk into the voting booth.

The polls after the first debate will be a good indicator of how things will go.

Iraq is a key issue, I sure hope Kerry can differentiate himself from Bush in a MEANINGFUL manner on this in the debates. :hi:

[VirginiaDem]

25. online poll?

I certainly hope these numbers are true and don't want to pee on anybody's parade but isn't this an online poll? How certain are we of the methodology here? How were the respondents chosen?

[DarthDem]

26. Zogby Had 2000 Right

When the other polls were all laughably wrong. The person on this thread who said that stressing over small sample size, high MOE polls isn't worth it is right.

[VirginiaDem]

27. yes but that was a "normal" poll...

and this is online. I'm skeptical of the methodology until proven otherwise. I think that Zogby/CBS and the other poll which I'm forgetting right now that were very close for 2000 are much better barometers now and they show Kerry up by a point or two instead of down by a point or two. So I agree with you there.

[featherman]

28. I would like to believe this poll on the horse race numbers and

perhaps it is more hopeful than we think. Stan Greenberg has done some nice work about the "emerging Democratic majority" that speaks to the largely unnoticed shift back to the left that has been going on since 1990 or so. The fact that Gore won the popular vote despite the mistake filled campaign strategy, the Clinton scandal, and being mocked relentlessly as a fool and a serial liar by the media may mean the our side has a deeper bedrock than we have been lead to believe. Let's hope we can start swinging the pendulum back finally.