Rasmussen daily GE graph for 9/5/08 - Obama 46, McCain 45 (O down 1, M up 2)

[DavidDvorkin]

With leaners, Obama 48, McCain 46 (O ↓ 2, M ↑ 1)

You don't suppose Tweety's prediction that McCain will be ahead in the polls next week was right, do you? Ugh.














These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html


Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[geek tragedy]

1. Obama had a really good day drop out.

If he's tied on Monday, we're in good shape.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. That was probably it

But I was hoping it was more than one good day, that it was a general, steady uptick.

Unrealistic, considering the ongoing RNC coverage, I guess.

[Whalestoe]

2. Doubt McCain will pull ahead. Plus, this is Ras...

How much do you trust them?

[maseman]

4. I do trust them

I trusted them when Obama was way up earlier in the week and I still trust them now. They do credible polls.

Obama got a post convention bounce and so is John McSame.

[Whalestoe]

10. Well, then there you go.

Obama is trending high 40's. That's good news, so I'm guessing he's not really losing any major support. I think McCain will get a bounce too, but I've never seen him poll higher than 46%, however, I usually just check Gallup.

[DavidDvorkin]

13. I trust them

At least, I don't believe they'd deliberately distort their numbers, no matter how pro-Republican the head of the company might be.

I've said before, and I'll say it again: Polling companies depend on other polls for their bread and butter. These political polls are their advertising. The more accurate they are seen as being, the more business they get.

[Whalestoe]

14. Good point.

I'm just weary of all polls.

[Franks Wild Years]

5. "Voters are evenly divided as to whether Palin or Obama has the better experience to be President."

Some people really will believe whatever the GOP tell them.

Let's just hope that, in the event of a McCain Presidency, that it's those people who are losing their jobs and houses. Because there are so many people who really, really don't deserve to suffer any more.

[HughMoran]

7. That's bad for McCain

He's the top of the ticket.

[dennis4868]

8. People should need to take a test....

pass and get a license to vote after what has happened the past 8 years under Bush...

[ComplimentarySwine]

32. That seems like it would disenfranchise many uneducated people

on BOTH sides. (Read: rednecks and urban communities)

[DavidDvorkin]

33. I had to take a test to become a US citizen

That was long ago, and I suppose it's changed since then. At the time, it covered the basics of how the government works, basic history -- the sort of thing kids are supposed to learn in civics classes.

Something along those lines would be a good thing, but it wouldn't pass Constitutional muster.

[HughMoran]

6. I think tied would be fine for now

A draw at best after the conventions with the Republicans getting to go second (last thing in people's minds) is reasonable at this point.

[Kaylee]

9. ITA...If it is a draw after the Repug convention I will be happy. nt

[DavidDvorkin]

11. Then it would come down to post-convention speeches and the debates

Which should be okay, unless the press is able to convince the public that McCain and Palin won the debates, as they did with Bush-Gore.

[JoshDem]

12. Rasmussen Polls Very Reliable--We are Likely to be Behind tomorrow or Sunday

Palin was a home run(for now)for the Republicans and McCain also came across well to independents.

Still a nip and tuck race and will have several more swings in the next two months.

[kwolf68]

28. A homerun

Would have given McCain a much bigger bounch. Palin is not capable/willing to handle ad hoc questions with reporters.

A homerun? Someone who they trot out for canned speeches? She is nothing but a vapid puff piece. The more she talks the better for the Dems, which is precisely why they won't let her talk.

Typical trophy wife, but instead this time it's a 'trophy VP candidate', but like all women in the 1800s, she is meant to only be seen and not heard.

[DemFromMem]

15. Not bad news

If the GOP is up one or two points after their convention, I'd hardly consider that good for them. They're supposed to get a bounce and then as the campaign rolls ahead, the bounce recedes. They really should be up 5 to 7 points in order to have the cushion they need.

On a side note, the problem with Palin now is that her big moment in the sun has passed. She won't get the same kind of attention as she did Wednesday night and stump speeches and handshaking aren't going to do it particularly as the media continues to find new and interesting material on her (with the exception of the debate). She has got to do high profile interviews. They might be with easier questioners like Larry King or Barbara Walters. But if the GOP honestly believes she is going to really help their chances, hiding her from media scrutiny is not the answer. The GOP will try and define Palin and their convention was helpful to them, but now the media gets the chance to do the defining and this little sitzkrieg against the press is not going to help them in that regard.

[book_worm]

16. Why don't you include figures with leaners included? gives Obama a 2-pt edge

[Hope And Change]

17. He did but not in his headline.

[DavidDvorkin]

20. Yep. Those numbers are included in the post and the graphs

That's my underhanded way of trying to get people to read the whooooole post, not just the subject line.

[book_worm]

18. It's only natural that McCain will get a boost, too. No matter what after the convention the race

will be essentially tied. The people are upset over gas prices and the ecnomomy in general. Obama will begin to recover lost ground pretty quickly.

[thenam]

19. This is expected

When Gallup releases its own tracking poll later today you can expect a similar thing. Obama got a bounce, so will McWar. The real contest BEGINS once the conventions are over. We've got debates coming, and tens of millions of dollars for both sides to spend over two months. So get ready.

[Robbins]

21. RAS

This Is actully good news.Despite all the media kissing Palin's ass(Keith and Rachel won't on MSNBC
but everyone else Is) RAS still has Obama ahead.And Mccain speech was not as well recieved as
Obama's.

[Dbdmjs1022]

22. Guys, this isn't bad. If at the end of McCain's bounce the polls are tied that's HUGE for us!

[Sensitivity]

23. Why HUGE FOR US? Manageable, yes, but still worrrisome.

[Name removed]

25. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Upton]

26. The rate this is going McCain could be ahead by Monday

I'm worried again

[BeyondGeography]

24. Those are the one-night stand numbers

Once the reality of the marriage sets in, we'll be fine.

[DavidDvorkin]

27. Ooo. Great post.

[JBoy]

30. I agree. I can live with those numbers.

[mvd]

29. I watch Gallup more anyway

Rasmussen hardly ever varies, and when they do, it's often towards McCain. At least Gallup has equal opportunity wavering.

One point people are missing: we took a sizable lead after our convention. If they just make it tied, we will likely pull ahead in both polls again.

[DavidDvorkin]

31. Debates and speeches

As Obama can get enough time on the air, the contrast should do it.