ABC News: New Poll shows Palin pick unlikely to have any impact

[grantcart]

A newly released poll by ABC News confirms that the Palin pick is exciting the Republican base but having little impact outside of Repubican circles.

The results show that more of the public is influenced by Obama's pick of Joe Biden but that the vast majority are not going to be influenced by the VP pick. It also showed that the vast majority of the public thinks that Joe Biden is more ready to be president than Palin.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Story?id=5725793&page=2

IMPACT -- The public by a narrow 6-point margin, 25 percent to 19 percent, says Palin's selection makes them more likely to support McCain, less than the 12-point positive impact of Biden on the Democratic ticket (22 percent more likely to support Barack Obama, 10 percent less so). But majorities in both cases say the vice presidential picks won't matter in their vote, and those who do report an impact chiefly are reflecting their existing partisan predispositions

At the same time, the story in the ideological center is different: Among moderates, Biden registers as a net 15-point positive for Obama. In the same group, Palin shows no effect on support for McCain.

That's despite the fact that fewer than half, 42 percent, think Palin has the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president if that became necessary. Far more say Biden passes the experience bar, 66 percent.

[...of J.Temperance]

1. Thank God for that

With all of this media love-in with Palin, I was starting to get worried.

Of course anyone with a brain would know that Joseph Biden is tons more qualified than Governor Airhead.

[LisaL]

3. Not so long ago, Palin had no clue as to what it is VP does.

LOL.

[...of J.Temperance]

5. LOL!

And she still ain't sure what the letters VP even stand for!

[Booster]

22. And whomever interviews her first should ask her if she's found

out what a VP does all day.

[Hope And Change]

2. K & R!

[Cha]

4. This should be right.. I hope that means that this

time Americans aren't buying what the republicans and corporate media is cramming down their collective gullet!

[MrModerate]

6. Which just goes to show that the "Game Changer" hysteria . . .

Was 90% media jabber from talking heads and 10% freikorps chanting on the RNC floor.

[tekisui]

7. Her sole role was/is to secure the puke base.

It speaks to where mcpow is starting. He had to get his base before he could think of indys. Now, he will have a much harder time picking up moderates and indys.

Net loss. Not to mention the soap opera that follows her.

[dtotire]

26. Her Base is concentrated in Red States

It won't change the electoral picture at all.

[MadMaddie]

49. He had 3 months while the Dems were slugging it out

to come up with a plan and Palin was it!

If this doesn't sum up the man and his campaign nothing else will!

[nc4bo]

8. A breath of fresh air and a slap of reality, nt

[OmahaBlueDog]

9. This pick was made for one reason: to ensure that the fundies show up and send money

They've gone from certain slaughter to "a punchers chance."

[grantcart]

10. actually he only made the pick after he was told he couldn't pick the other

candidates he wanted.

Then he had to make the best of it.

Kind of like putting lipstick on a pig.

[OmahaBlueDog]

23. None of the others were going to do anything for him with the base

Mittens = disliked for massive flip flops and Evangelical distrust of LDS
Lieberman = Except fot the war, he mostly votes with us; fudndies distrust him
Pawlenty = My understanding is that he just didn't excite anybody in focus groups, and wasn't a sure thing to deliver MN
Huckleberry = Despised by the low tax /Grover Norquist crowd
Ridge = Pro choice. 'nuff said.

[Teaser]

11. I swear I saw this poll earlier this week

.

[grantcart]

13. Dated 9/5

[thewiseguy]

12. Is it me or ABC is really going after Palin?

[grantcart]

15. I think that they just ran a poll and published the results.

[thewiseguy]

18. They had unflattering pics of her yesterday

Running with her remarks on Hillary the previous day.

And the day before that they were going with the AIP story.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

14. I don't know why many of you panicked. All she does is shore up the Repuke base.

She does NOTHING for Undecideds and Indies who will most likely swing this election.

We ignore her ass and take the right straight to McSame who is hiding behind her.

If nothing, this should teach us to trust Obama's judgment. He knows exactly what he's doing!!

[Marsala]

41. But shoring up the Repuke base is scary even by itself

That IS what put them over the top in 2004, and the enthusiasm gap was vastly in our favor before. Plus, the outpouring of support gave the (probably false) impression that LOTS of people who wouldn't bother to vote before now would, and the polls were already close.

[Danger Mouse]

58. It won't be enough this time.

[tigereye]

47. most reasonable people would have said, "what the hell was he thinking/"

[Tarheel_Dem]

16. I sort of expected these results. According to two co-workers, both

moderate Repubs, even though she's a "firebrand", she came off as snarky. They had hoped to hear more about her, and less about her opponents. Each confided in me that the Palin pick would have little effect outside the very hardcore base of the party, and it looks like they may have been right.

[grantcart]

21. People don't really like sarcasm in a leader that much

It can be ok when you have a long history in front of the people but it really looks bad when you are first on the scene. Looks ungracious and superficial. She should lose the sarcasm right a way.

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. Nope, let her keep the sarcasm, because as far as I can tell it really

turned some people off, and that's a good thing for us. One Repub co-worker mentioned to me yesterday that keeping her away from the press would wind up damaging her brand, because if the media doesn't have access, they'll define her out of spite; I don't know if that's true, but we shall see.

[chicagoexpat]

17. Regardless of the Sturm und Drang from the handwringers and the "media who cried wolf"

VP picks have proven time & again to have very little effect on the mass voting for the President, and to almost never affect the outcome in the final analysis.

They help or hurt in other ways, and I've discussed the positives & negatives elsewhere and in my blog, but people vote for the top of the ticket, pure & simple.

[Gman]

19. This just verifies that the GOP long ago gave up on the middle

and they're going "all in" on turning out their base to the maximum amount possible.

This is a big gamble for the GOP, but if it pays off it is dangerous to the greatest extreme for this country. The fundies will claim a mandate to push even harder for theocratic rule likely through executive orders that must be challenged in court while the theocrats appoint more and more sympathetic judges that would hear the cases.

This whole scenario is of the greatest danger this country has every seen.

[jazzjunkysue]

20. I'm confused. ABC used to be the #2 GOP shill. Did Gramps piss them off that much?

Or, maybe the media are giving up on the GOP. They know which side their bread is buttered and they're not keeping up the charade.
Obama's got it in the electoral, with no hope for gramps.

Now, we just wait to see if they rig the vote.

[alsame]

24. Ha, ha, ha. n/t

[senseandsensibility]

27. Maybe now we can stop hyperventilating

and using three quarters of GDP for Palin threads.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

28. LET'S KEEP THIS KICKED

It's actual DATA. There ought ot be at least one data post in the mix of speculation about what Palin polling data *might * be.

[calimary]

51. Okay!

It's welcome news. I guess once all the fuss dies down, Middle America rolls back over and reaches for a cigarette, and stops to think for just a moment.
And the other person in bed winds up looking a lot less impressive the next morning than they did in the singles bar the night before.

[GoesTo11]

29. Did McCain do something to ABC? They seem to have turned in the last week.

Not shilling him anymore.

[niceypoo]

30. But, but.....it excites the base......

...the tried and true, do or die, 18% who will march right off a cliff for corporate Jesus!!

[cliffordu]

31. Fockin' grantcart: Putting the wood to the Repubs for as long as it takes...

K&R!!

:rofl:

[Starry Messenger]

32. Kick.

More or less what I figured. She's not all that.

MPK

[livetohike]

33. One would have to be an idiot to think Palin would help McCain

She is dissing environmentalists, librarians, community organizers, steelworkers, and the list goes on. She's a piece of work - they can't even let her go on the road alone yet. Pitbull with lipstick, yeah right.

[everything-bolt-up]

34. Mccain-Palin: One foot in the grave and a bun in the oven.

[writes3000]

35. I've seen this poll earlier this week as well....I think the article is new though.

I wonder if they sent out the research first and now they're doing the analysis.

Either way, thanks for highlighting this.

I have a feeling that Palin's short term boost is about to give way to long term doubt and second-guessing.

[goclark]

36. Thanks grantcart you are the thermometer at DU

You always seem to find the information to take down our temperatures. thanks~

[ladjf]

37. I take this as good news. However, we are all still guessing about

her impact on the election. None of us have access to the minds of those in power.

However, one strong clue as to what is going on in the minds of the McCain campaign is that the first speeches by Palin referred to the "good work done by Hillary Clinton". Each time she was mentioned by Palin there were many loud boos.

The fact that Clinton was mentioned clearly indicated to me that at least part of their strategy for selecting Palin was to capture some of the Clinton disaffected voters. This has turned out to be a big mistake as evidenced by the fact that they have dropped the referenced to Clinton.

The "Clinton strategy" was a serious mistake. If the campaign people were delusional about the possibility of grabbing some of Hillary's supporters, perhaps they are just as mistaken in believing that America is ready to support an un-vetted, uneducated religious extremest as their possible next President.

[Canuckistanian]

38. Well, looks like she converted the choir

She never even stepped out of the church.

[TheKentuckian]

42. The corporate fascist may sell McCain/Palin out too or at least step back

If Palin were to get in she'd screw them worse than any "Liberals". Fundies like to gum up good revenue sources and stir up controversies that don't sell ads, widgets, or supplies.

Either way, the web is like have air superiority, they are have trouble keeping up and they must be beat back now before they can implement restrictions that they are chomping at the bit for.

[Barack_America]

39. Turnout among the base. That's the only concern now.

But the real risk was the excitement of her introduction. I believe that her negatives will grow as more people get to know her, her scandals and shocking inexperience.

[rufus dog]

40. I think she will have an impact

and switch a couple of States to Obama. She is the stereotypical popular bitch in B High School/College movies. The smiling evil conniver who everyone hates. This will motivate some Obama supporters and increase turnout. Her radical religious views will switch some other independent and Jewish voters. My guess is she delivers Florida and Montana to Obama.

[judasdisney]

43. People Magazine, US Magazine, Newsweek covers -- media impact ... media darling

Palin is much more dangerous than Bush ever was.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

44. McCain could have picked someone off the street and would have had more impact than her!

[Genevieve]

45. Recommended . . . nt

[Lex]

46. I figured as much.

Exciting only those who were going to vote for McBush anyway.

[Douglas Carpenter]

48. that's a reasonable educated guess, I'm worried about the Palin of the future

Even if Sen. Obama wins the Presidency and the short term goal fails, the extreme right might very well have found their voice.

After another four years as Governor and a bit of finishing school, Sarah Palin might appear a lot more viable.

Like many demagogues she has demonstrated an ability to wrap a right-wing extremist message in the language and imagery of a working class populist family woman to Orwellian levels - and she and her handlers are very, very good at it - so far, anyway.

Remember, Reagan sought and lost the Republican nomination in both 1968 and 1976. But he became the unifying figure of what emerged as the right-wing coalition which has now dominated the American political scene for a generation.

Before Ronald Reagan they had Barry Goldwater who lost in 1964 in one of the greatest landslides in American history. But he brought together the necessary elements to create this reactionary scourge which has so plagued our country and the world. At the time of 1964 most Americans considered Goldwater an extremist nut. "In your gut you know he's a nut." By the end of the 80's Goldwater was way too moderate and reasonable for the political movement he once led, a movement which came to dominate the American body politic.

I have a nightmare that whatever the result of the election, Sarah could very well emerge as the voice of the movement that Reagan once led and Goldwater was way too liberal to lead.

Again it is entirely possible that the whole thing could fizzle or implode. For the sake of the country and the world and the future of humanity, I certainly hope so. But, Reagan "could" have fizzled or imploded too, way back in the 60's or 70's, but he didn't. Now we are faced with someone who would make Ronald Reagan look like a Birkenstock socialist.

[Danger Mouse]

59. I doubt it. This election cycle might be the end for the fundies.

[Douglas Carpenter]

60. I certainly hope you are right. But unless she out and out implodes, I'm sure we will see her

in 2012 and will be hearing from her over the next few years.

Like Reagan and Bush Jr. she has that uncanny ability to wrap an elitist agenda in the language and imagery of anti-elitist, this might very well extend well outside of fundamentalist circles.

For now anyway, the extreme right have found their voice in Sarah Palin. This could very well certainly change or perhaps she could even implode. I certainly hope so.

[Danger Mouse]

61. She's corrupt as all hell, and not very smart about it, either.

That will be her undoing.

[Miss Chybil]

50. I'd like to know how many people say McCain's choice makes them less

likely to vote for him than before he picked her.

[WinkyDink]

52. My theory about ABC: 1. They are rivals of NBC/MSNBC; and 2. They know who will be in office next!

[Life Long Dem]

53. "the vast majority of the public thinks that Joe Biden is more ready to be president than Palin."

And that question I wouldn't doubt probably correlates more with the polls than anything, else we see.

[rhett o rick]

54. I wouldn't give ABC Network the time of day. They are worse than Fox because they hide

their bias better. ABC is part of the evil fascist empire.

[merh]

55. If MSM is reporting it as "unlikely to have an impact" then it has

an impact and that is a negative impact. -

This weekend, I talked to folks that supported mccain or were voting repub - now they are digusted - they hate politics, they are all crooks and they are not voting.

Forgot about courting the undecideds, the hillary supporters and the independents - they just turned off the rational members of their own party

[goclark]

56. We still need to work like we are 10 pts. down

Just heard CNN - Bill S. say the polls are "close."

[merh]

57. Of course we need to work - it doesn't matter who he named

he would have gotten a bump because THEY DON'T LIKE HIM - that is what I find so astounding, how the hell the GOP got stuck with him.

You'd think if they could fix an election they would have fixed the elections in the primaries - next time they will - they know they are in trouble.

Yes, we work and we do so by presenting the positive. You can't make a silk purse from a moose ear.

Push the new GOP slogan when you talk to your friends, push McCain's platform:

"Trust us to fix what we broke."

[grantcart]

62. kick