Gallup: Shows "Palin Bounce" largely contained to South

[FourScore]

Gallup: Shows "Palin Bounce" largely contained to South (Updated)
by DaveV
Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:55:09 AM PDT

Gallup has released weekly breakdowns of Candidate Support by Region for the Sept 1-7, which includes the RNC convention. My own analysis comparing these numbers to the previous two weeks (Aug 25-31: Post-DNC convention and Aug 18-24: Pre-DNC convention), it's easy to see:



The Palin bounce in national polls is being driven by a response in the South.

Even better news - over both conventions (Update <2008-9-10 11:3:2 by DaveV>:: title fixed):



Obama actually gained in the crucial Midwest and West.

The Palin bounce was largely contained to the South (+11) -- states that Barack does not need to win the election. It was also fairly substantial in the East (+6), but the East is largely locked up for Obama. The bounce was smallest in the crucial Midwest (+4) and nil in the West.

Over both conventions, McCain lost ground in both the Midwest and West -- areas that contain the crucial battleground states.

It's pretty hard to spin this as "good news for McCain."

Here are the raw numbers:



GALLUPS REGIONS:
East: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Kersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, District of Columbia.

Midwest: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas.

South: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas

West: Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alaska.

Notably, the South does contain Virginia and Florida -- so, that may be of some concern. We'll have to look at the state polls as they come out.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/10/10169/7586/567/593363

[writes3000]

1. Damn, that's encouraging. Just as many DUers predicted. She made red states redder.

And Obama made strides where he needed to.

[endthewar]

40. McCain is betting his base against ours

After a lengthy Dem Primary season that upped the number of Dems all across the country. What a stupid strategy.

[K8-EEE]

2. That's what I said all along...she makes the red states redder, big deal

Who cares if Kentucky votes more for McCain than before Palin?

It says a lot that the fundie base was what McCain had to shore up this late in the game. That's not really too great of a situation for him to be in. He can't win with ONLY fundies and Palin will backfire on moderates & indies....BIG TIME.

[TwilightGardener]

3. Good! Like I said yesterday, it's just the fundies pitching a tent over End Times Barbie.

[Barack_America]

9. Lol! "End Times Barbie". Where can I buy one of those?!?!

And does she come with strings attached so that I can make her move like a puppet...and yank her up to Rapture her?

I WANT ONE! :D

[TwilightGardener]

14. Make sure you buy all the Apocalyptic accessories, sold separately!

[Barack_America]

25. Oh I do hope they've made a pet dinosaur for her.

What girl is complete without one?

[Terran]

20. Omg, that's great!

End Times Barbie! (bomb shelter sold separately)

[Arugula Latte]

4. Palin seems to have put Florida into play -- for Obama

The older Jewish voters aren't pleased with having a Jesus-is-a-comin' nutjob psychoChristian as potential VP.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/9/9/15225/15062

[kwolf68]

6. Florida is a dead heat right?

I am shocked that Florida is in play, but I saw some data that said Obama is in the game down there. Holy moly...that will be one of the first states that comes in on election night...I hope it falls our way.

[TexasLady]

5. We Southern Dems are Swimmin' in a Sea of Stupid

not surprising.

[Clio the Leo]

33. HELP ME!!!! I'm LIVING IN PALIN HELL!!!!! NT

[Barack_America]

7. OH NOES!!!!1!!111! We're screwn!

We need the South!

It is teh most crucial!

Sorry to our Southern DUers, I just figured I'd head off our guests from Freeperville at the pass.

[Midlodemocrat]

10. And, you did a good job of it.

:patriot:

:rofl:

[WI_DEM]

8. Good!

[Douglas Carpenter]

11. that makes sense...

I bet they also dropped in every precinct that has a Starbucks

This culture war stuff has two sides.

[yellowcanine]

12. The hard truth for McCain is that the electoral map still favors Obama.

McCain basically has to "run the table" to win. It is hard to see how he does that in a Democratic year. He is just not going to be able to sell himself as the "change" candidate in the states that matter.

[otohara]

13. Oh Southern States....When Will

y'all join the 21st century?


Choose one:

Never

When the next century rolls around maybe.

[Midlodemocrat]

15. Watch it, buddy!.

:rofl:

I think we're going to go blue this year. I really do. :bounce:

[trudyco]

16. So what percentages switched from Obama to McCain vs

undecideds becoming decideds? Or third party voters shifting? I can believe McCain got some apathetic religious types to swing his way after Palin, but did Obama voters really switch sides? I find that hard to believe.

[amborin]

17. read today's Tom Friedman in the NY Times n/t

[beac]

18. Ah yes, 'THE SOUTH WILL RISE' to the bait 'AGAIN'!

All that secessionist talk must have the stars-and-bars crowd in a state of pure ignorant ecstasy. :puke:


I've lived in VA all my life and have ancestors that fought in the Civil War for the South, but we were raised to recognize it for the TERRIBLE time that it was and not as a 'missed opportunity'.

[PVnRT]

19. Finally, a sane look at poll numbers. K&R

:kick:

[Alter Ego]

21. Congratulations, McGrampy--you won the votes of people who were already voting for you.

What's your next magical trick? You gonna pull a fuckin quarter from my ear?

[nam78_two]

26. lol-exactly.nt

[chill_wind]

29. That's good! :-)

[gaspee]

22. what a shocker

Not. Big surprise the south is going for McCain by 54-39.

[David__77]

23. I want Obama to win with a majority of the popular vote, but winning with a minority works too.

In fact, there would be something delightful about McCain netting more popular votes but losing the electoral college. Very possible.

[rucky]

24. It looks like both camps are right in their strategy to turn-out the base.

I don't think there's alot of votes swinging though. The best thing we can do now is make sure everybody's registered and nobody gets caged.

[yardwork]

27. Palin didn't help in the West at all. That's very interesting!

Down here in the south the culture wars are in full swing and people are more polarized than ever. The racists will not vote for Obama because he's black, and Palin is just an excuse for them. Don't believe them. The fundies are one-issue voters - it's all about abortion to them, so Democrats never have a chance. Sure, they love Palin, but they were never ours to begin with and they can't get any more enthusiastic - they turn out like clockwork in every election to vote on their single issue.

Meanwhile, McCain's insane choice has sickened a lot of independents and now they're seriously considering voting for Obama. And the Democratic base? I've never seen it more fired up. People are mad!

[mzmolly]

28. Now for the media

to report this?

Thanks for the info. :hi:

[McCamy Taylor]

30. Just as I expected. And McCain had the south locked up. roflmao

[Thrill]

31. This is why Ploffe has continued to say the tracking polls are BS

[progressive_realist]

32. Palin fires up the base and scares everyone else.

I've been saying that since she was selected. Losing deep red states by larger margins might make the national polls look bad, but means nothing at all in terms of Obama winning the election.

[scheming daemons]

34. This *IS* a big deal though... it could affect our ability to get a fillibuster-proof senate.

We don't want high turnout by Repukes in some states.

[samsingh]

35. good analysis

[MattNC]

36. My beloved South! *sigh* n/t

[bevoette]

37. THANK FUCKING GAWD!!!

i've been a basket case for two days over all this BULLSHIT

i picked an email fight with my mother and one of my old high school friends who i email with regularly

like...there's something wrong with me, i need to 'lay off' the politics or something. i'm seriously STRESSED.

[HughMoran]

38. "It's pretty hard to spin this as "good news for McCain.""

Me likey :D

[Rosa Luxemburg]

39. something in the water down south?

or Koolaid?