Can we stop posting these idiotic nationwide polls - THEY MEAN SHIT and they are misleading

[LynneSin]

Ask yourself this one question - when was the last presidential election in the United States where the outcome was based just on the popularity vote?

Still thinking - well good, now you know why these stupid nationwide polls mean shit. They lump all the blue/red/purple states together as one giant size lump and say "47-44" blah blah blah and in all reality it means SHIT.

This is the only numbers that count - if the election were held today based on STATEWIDE polls - who would win the ELECTORIAL VOTE

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Right now we're ahead. It's close - alot of states are too close to call so there is plenty of work to be done. But stop posting these shitty populary polls because it's the way of saying 'LOOK HOW CLOSE THIS IS PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY BUYING INTO MCCAIN'S CRAP'.

[fascisthunter]

1. thank you

[melody]

2. And it's still the convention bump

They will lose it by the end of the month.

[LynneSin]

3. well that remains to be seen - it'll be a tight race

just hate seeing us panic over nonsense polls whose soul purpose is to make us panic

[melody]

Of course it'll be tight, but this is a convention bounce

It'll be out of the numbers by the end of the month. If this is the best McPain can do, he's pretty pathetic (but
we knew that already).

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Or ask yourself when was the last time the national vote didn't match the electoral college?

Gore won Florida in 2000.

There was no mismatch there.

The last time the electoral college differed from the popular vote for real was in the 1800s.

[cynatnite]

5. I hope not...

They are snapsnots of public opinion and no candidate worth their salt will ignore them.

[Statistical]

7. EC rarely (in mordern politics) differs from pop vote.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Popular Vote: 49.0% - 49.0%
Obama loses Popular Vote, wins Electoral Vote 3.77%
McCain loses Popular Vote, wins Electoral Vote 1.42%

If Popular Vote swings even further say +2% the odds get insanely small like <0.50%.
If Popular vote swings way out say +4% the odds EC won't match popular vote in 2 party race is essentially 0%.

The key is to look at GOOD polls.

Gallup = crap.
Rasumussen (excluding leaners) is best IMHO.
If you look at core # (not leaners) it doesn't move much from day to day. Very few blips and reversals.
Right now it is showing a slow decline for McCain.

[LynneSin]

8. Well then all we need to do is go back to 2000 to debunk that theory

The key is to focus on the ELECTORIAL vote. We should be posting that every single day and focusing on states where we can solidify that and yes then in the long run we'll get the popular vote too.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. So you think Bush won Florida?

[LynneSin]

13. Oh come on I know he didn't which even puts more into question these nationwide polls

He also didn't win Ohio too.

But if they can word these polls to make it seem like the election is close then it's easier for them to steal. Like the poll about Palin gaining 'favorablity' with white women. Guess what favorablity just means I like the person doesn't mean I'm voting for them.

[cynatnite]

10. Everyone has an opinion on what the 'good' polls are...

I think Rasmussen sucks.

They are complicated bits of data that snapshots public opinion at any given moment. Given the size of the samplings and the rest of the internals there will be wide disparity between polls.

I look at polls over a period of weeks and months rather than one at a time. I watch how it fluctuates over that period of time and think about what might have played a roll to make it change.

That's how I view polls. I also won't dismiss the ones I don't like either.

[Statistical]

11. I agree to an extent

I agree polls are more useful to show trends rather than individual points in time.
I still think Gallup's methodology is flawed.

The best "poll" I think is 538 Super Tracker.
By using some statistical methods is eliminates outliers and I believes gives us best "picture" of current trend.

[DevonRex]

6. Rec'd. They don't mean shit and they just lower morale here.

[crickets]

14. Exactly. -nt

[Bullet1987]

12. This will fall on deaf ears...