Anyone have a good explanation for the shift in election markets?

[kattenstoet]

Obviously, I don't put a lot of faith in them, but I do follow them, and I'm curious to know what in today's news cycle they think is worth a net 5% gain for McCain relative to yesterday.

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Intrade and the like are what they were 1 or 2 cycles ago

They just aren't. Back in 04 and 00 nobody but those in the now really knew about them. Now anyone can fund an account and start throwing money around. There isn't a lot of smart money on that side anymore, just people who day trade the news cycle. (See Pawlenty)

[kansasblue]

2. I saw it go from 60/40 pre convention to 49/50 today.

I do put some stock in intrade. It easy to say 'my candidate will kick ass'. But put $$$$ on that and it's a more thought out process. So.. I'm concerned.