Post what percent chance of winning these states you think we have

[mvd]

I'll start:

PA: 75%
NH: 70%
VA: 55%
CO: 60%
FL: 50% (up since even a recent Ras poll has us tied)
OH: 55%
MI: 70%
IA: 85%
WI: 70%
MN: 85%
NC: 25%
GA: 10%
WV: 40% as of now, but will go up IMO
MO: 40%
WA: 80%
NM: 65%
ME: 90%
OR: 70%
NV: 55%
ND: 20%
MT: 35%

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Pretty good chance of winning Maine. We've gone blue the last few times around

[mvd]

3. I forgot that one

What do you think? 80%?

[GreenPartyVoter]

4. Yeah. I'm feeling pretty hopeful. Most electoral sites show it as

dark blue, light blue, or barely in play.

[valerief]

2. Hey, they don't add up to 100!

:hide:

[featherman]

5. Several of these state should not be on any "if" list

We win OR, WA, IA, MI, MN, NH, PA, WI, NM without much question barring a stunning national change

Of the others I like CO, OH, VA, NV at about 55%

FL at 50%

The rest are under 50% with the best shots at MT, ND, NC, WV and GA in that order

[mvd]

8. It's not really an "if" list

People are talking about these as battlegrounds, even if they aren't - so I thought I'd get input.

[BlooInBloo]

6. I'll go with the best-available models....

[texastoast]

7. Next election

I WANT Texas on that list!

[TexasObserver]

9. I give us better percentages in a number of states

PA: 85%
NH: 80%
VA: 65%
CO: 60%
FL: 50%
OH: 55%
MI: 80%
IA: 90%
WI: 90%
MN: 85%
NC: 35%
GA: 20%
WV: 30%
MO: 45%
WA: 90%
NM: 65%
ME: 90%
OR: 90%
NV: 65%
ND: 20%
MT: 50%

[mvd]

11. I hope yours are right

I still think Obama will pull ahead by at least a few nationally but am being a bit cautious right now. I haven't been the best on predictions so far.

I might be low on ME.

[mvd]

13. I increased my ME prediction

[TexasObserver]

15. I can't see Maine going to McCain.

If we lose New England, we've lost.

[GreenPartyVoter]

33. Maine hasn't gone red in many years. I'm not too worried about it

[NYC_SKP]

10. I want FL and OH as payback, and MO for good measure.

The WV numbers are crazy, but I'll go there and kiss every one of 'em if they go blue.

[scheming daemons]

12. Here's mine:

PA: 90%

NH: 55%

VA: 30%

CO: 55%

FL: 35%

OH: 50%

MI: 80%

IA: 95%

WI: 90%

MN: 80%

NC: 5%

GA: 5%

WV: 10%

MO: 25%

WA: 90%

NM: 50%

ME: 95%

OR: 90%

NV: 50%

ND: 5%

MT: 5%

[Dr. Strangelove]

14. My take

PA: 75%
NH: 50% (They really do like McCain there)
VA: 50% (Obama's best chance to break through the "south")
CO: 60%
FL: 40% (Joe L is really well liked in S. Florida, add in the Rednecks and it's a tough road to hoe)
OH: 45%
MI: 70%
IA: 85%
WI: 70%
MN: 85%
NC: 10% (Not going to happen - ask Harvey Gantt how things work down here)
GA: 10%
WV: 10% (If Al Gore didn't win there, I really don't see how Obama wins there)
MO: 40%
WA: 80%
NM: 60%
ME: 80% (However, McCain has a decent shot to pick up on EV since they split their EVs)
OR: 80%
NV: 50%
ND: 10%
MT: 10%

[mvd]

17. Welcome to DU

I am a little concerned about VA after the Palin pick (lots of fundies in parts of the state,) but I still put it at better than 50/50 for now. I think after the convention bounce you will see OH polling in our favor again. It's really not the kind of state that falls for Palin as a maverick.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Okay, I'll play

PA: 80%
NH: 60%
VA: 40%
CO: 50%
FL: 40%
OH: 55%
MI: 75%
IA: 80%
WI: 70%
MN: 85%
NC: 10%
GA: 5%
WV: 10%
MO: 10%
WA: 85%
NM: 70%
ME: 82%
OR: 88%
NV: 45%
ND: 5%
MT: 5%

Actually I would use 0% for some of the ones near the bottom, but as a gambler I'll allow for unforeseen circumstance and pretend it's higher than 0%.

I sloppily didn't take much time with some of the 70s and 80s so they might not be in perfect relationship to each other.

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. Her ya go.

PA: 98%
NH: 80%
VA: 40%
CO: 65%
FL: 40%
OH: 80%
MI: 90%
IA: 85%
WI: 95%
MN: 95%
NC: 25%
GA: 05%
WV: 25%
MO: 45%
WA: 95%
NM: 70%
ME: 90%
OR: 95%
NV: 75%
ND: 15%
MT: 45%

[Barack_America]

19. Wisconsin's higher, IMO.

And maybe MI lower. MI is making me nervous.

[quakerboy]

20. Up OR to at least 80

Obama would have to really screw the pooch to lose here.

[Domestictalent]

21. I would lower VA

And the rest could stay the same, with Obama winning the elections by a comfortable margin.

[GrizzlyMan]

22. Some of these aren't battlegrounds IMO

PA: 95 (McCain isn't breaking through here, even at the apex of his support. the polls will get worse for him in PA from here on out)
NH: 85
VA: 55
CO: 70
FL: 50
OH: 45 (They like pain in OH)
MI: 85 (See PA)
IA: 100 (It's a lock)
WI: 80
MN: 100 (Even Dukakis won MN)
NC: 0
GA: 0
WV: 20
MO: 0
WA: 100 (a lock)
NM: 70 (gotta get the latino vote our gov. richardson)
ME: 100
OR: 100
NV: 55
ND: 0
MT: 25

[mvd]

23. Disagree about OH but love your PA number

I think Obama would still have to do a lot to lose it.

[Hamlette]

24. the best analysis and percentages are done by Nate Silver

He does this stuff (for baseball) for a living. He's studied each state from a number of perspectives (how some states are like other states demographically etc.) I'll go with him. We need Colorado, Iowa and NM plus all of Kerry's states. NH would prevent a tie so those are the four states I'm watching. I think we have the best chances there.

[mvd]

25. He's a little on the low side - hope he's wrong

In this case it would come down to CO with nail biters in other states we should win. I REALLY don't want it to come down to one state.

[Statistical]

26. Nate numbers are right. His methodology is sound.

Nate numbers are right. His methodology is sound.

I do statistical analysis work for oil&gas exploration companies.

Some of his methods are similar to what we use to "overlay" multiple surveys.
Some surveys may be older, some lower resolution, some newer, some higher resolution.
Rather than relying on single survey we can weight and provide confidence levels then use some heavy number crunching to
get a composite survey.

Once we have a composite we can then run simulations and give companies best locations for test wells, probability of a hit, size of hit, etc.

Good news is that Nates # are based on what is chance if election is held today.
Obama # will only continue as the "Palin shine" fade.
I also think he will get a boost in the debates.

By Nov5 there will be a lot more of those # solidly in the black.

[mvd]

27. No numbers are "right"

His methods might be sound but that does not make him the authority.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Agreed

He's only dealing with polls and polls by definition are flawed. For example, many states have distinct tendencies for polls to err in the same direction, like New Jersey too friendly to Republicans and Alaska and Georgia overly kind to Democrats. Models like Nate Silver's don't account for that at all. They are slaves to current indications.

Actually, I like his numbers in this case. I looked at them and most are very similar to my own, the ones I did subjectively in 30 seconds. :)

My quarrel is sites like his don't pay any attention to other foundational numbers, like the liberal/conservative percentages. Those numbers reveal what will happen down the road. Very often the early state polls will spit out nonsense and later in the cycle the liberal/conservative percentages take over and the states supposedly return to their traditional partisanship. In truth, they were never where they were proposed to be.

I gamble so I like to make declarative statements. You can't go to the betting window and freeze in bewilderment. But there's no denying everything is an estimate, not absolute.

[mvd]

30. What do you have us at in FL, VA and OH

At the lowest I'd go 45%, 40%, and 45%. But I look at more than the polls and demographics - sometimes human feelings can be a good combo with the hard numbers. :-)

[angee_is_mad]

28. Being in Greensboro, NC

and an optimist, I say NC 40% because of the colleges and universities and the black population.

[elkston]

34. Agree, and I'm in Durham, BTW.

:hi:

NC is at least as competitive, if not more, than West Virginia. Lots of generational hatred in W. Va, whereas the Triangle area of NC has a large influx educated folks who come from other, more "tolerant" regions of the country.

And then you have the HBCUs (Historically Black Colleges & Universities) that I feel will be a reliable voting block for Obama:

Fayetteville State, NC A&T, NC Central, Shaw University, Bennet College, Elizabeth City State.

[srhuddle]

31. I live in Missouri and I disagree...

I think we have a better chance than 40% in MO. From phone banking and canvassing it's quite apparent that Sarah Palin is just a novelty, and our (the Obama) campaign is growing like a wildfire. I see nothing but good news here every day. A 5-point lead this soon after the convention is very fixable.

The people who are Palin fanatics are already people who would never vote for us anyway. The independents (of which there are MANY) are still quite open to suggestion. The debates will have a big impact on those who are undecided and watching the race closely, and our massive outreach program will have a big impact on those who usually don't care one way or another. The McCain volunteers aren't passionate, but we are, and the undecided/independent voters are beginning to notice that.

[Frank Booth]

32. guesses

PA: 65%
NH: 65%
VA: 35%
CO: 40%
FL: 47.5%
OH: 45%
MI: 60%
IA: 70%
WI: 75%
MN: 80%
NC: 10%
GA: 4%
WV: 20%
MO: 25%
WA: 80%
NM: 55%
ME: 90%
OR: 60%
NV: 45%
ND: 5%
MT: 8%